Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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338
FXUS66 KSTO 151153
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
353 AM PST Sun Jan 15 2017

.Synopsis...
Fairly dry conditions through Tuesday. A series of storms will
begin Wednesday and continue into early next week. Use these dry
days to prepare now for another extended wet pattern with renewed
flooding and mountain snow concerns.

&&

.Discussion...
We are once again starting to see some reduced visibilities around
the valley as low clouds and patchy fog develop. Fog will likely
beome more dense as we get closer to sunrise. We expect fog to
impact our region for the next several mornings so please be
cautious during morning hours if you are driving. Keep in mind
that visibilities could quickly change along roadways.

Another day of dry weather as daytime highs are in the 50s for the
valley...mid 30s to upper 40s across higher terrain. As we
contine this dry period into Tuesday, please use this time to
prepare for another extended wet pattern. Active wet weather is
forecast to start early Wednesday and continue into the extended
forecast period.

Previous models showed the first system arriving Tuesday evening,
but the models have backed off and it now looks like light rain
arrives overnight between Tuesday and Wednesday with the brunt of
the storm impacting our CWA Wednesday morning through early
Thursday morning. Rain amounts in the valley will range from a
half inch up to 2 inches...up to 3 inches in the foothills. Snow
levels will be high initially but lower below pass levels on
Wednesday afternoon/evening between 5000-6000 ft. Snow levels
lower towards the foothills by Thursday. Snow amounts along the
Sierra will range from a few inches up to a foot or more at the
passes. The Interstate 5 corridor should only see a couple inches.
Breezy winds possible in the valley with gusty winds over
mountains.   JBB

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Return to wet pattern is expected during the extended period as a
series of storms impact interior NorCal. Long range models
continue to advertise a narrow band of subtropical moisture aimed
at our area Wednesday into early Thursday. Colder and drier air,
moving behind the frontal band, will shunt the moisture plume
southward. Thus, precipitation intensity will be weakening as the
moisture plume moves southward. Snow levels will drop to around
3500-4500 feet on Thursday. Gusty southerly winds will be possible
as the system moves through on Wednesday, especially over higher
terrain.

A second wave of precipitation will approach interior NorCal
late Thursday night through Friday. There is pretty good
confidence that there could be some accumulating snow down to
3,000 feet or possibly even lower.

A third system is expected Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread MVFR with local IFR visibilities in the Central Valley
south of KRBL until about 18Z with MVFR ceilings continuing south
of KCIC until 22Z. Fog and low ceilings redevelop by 04Z Monday.

Otherwise, VFR conditions for the higher foothills and mountains
next 24 hours.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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