Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

000
FXUS66 KSTO 181730
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PST Tue Nov 18 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and seasonable weather will continue today as high pressure
remains in control. A weather system will arrive Wednesday
bringing a chance for precipitation. Additional systems
will move through the area through the end of the week into
Saturday. High pressure builds over the area early to mid week
next week for dry weather and warmer daytime temperatures.

&&

.Discussion...
Another cool morning with temperatures in the low 30s to low 40s in
the Valley and in the teens in some of the colder mountains
valleys like Quincy and Chester.  Mid and high clouds ahead of a
weather system spreading into the area today and weakening the
ridge of high pressure. This weak system will bring a chance of
precipitation to the west side of interior Northern California
around midnight as it starts to move inland and spreading across
the area during the day Wednesday. Precipitation amounts are
expected to be around a quarter of an inch near Redding to less
than a tenth around Sacramento and the Northern San Joaquin Valley
and generally a quarter to a half an inch in the mount
mountains around Highway 50 and north. Another system is expected
to move in Thursday during the day. This may generally bring around a tenth
of an inch in the Valley and a quarter to half an inch in the
mountains. Snow levels will lower to around 5000 ft Thursday
evening. Snow amounts up to 6 inches are possible above 6000 ft through
Thursday evening. Another system will bring another threat of
precipitation across the north late Friday. This system looks like
it has more moisture with it.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Medium range models bring next frontal system inland Friday night
through Saturday. All models show a generally flat pattern with a
west to east jetstream near the CA/OR border. The dynamics are
such that the precip would be more widespread with the jetstream
near the area. GEFS shows about 50% probability of rain over 0.40
inches. However, orographics would likely increase the rain
totals. If the jetstream drifts southward, precip would turn more
showery behind the front, possibly Saturday night into Sunday.
Models suggest this storm will be the wettest of the series this
week with snow levels lowering to 4500 feet over Shasta mountains
and 5000-5500 feet Saturday night over Sierra.

Drier weather expected late Sunday into Tuesday with some
northerly wind as upper ridging approaches the west coast and
downward vertical motion (subsidence) increases over interior
NorCal.    JClapp



&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions today as mid and high level clouds spread
NNEwd over interior Norcal today with cigs AOA 12,000 ft. Local
MVFR vsbys in in patchy BR will improve to VFR after 18z-20z.

Cigs and vsbys will lower to local MVFR after 12z Wed as offshore
cold front moves inland with areas of rain.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.