Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 191102
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
402 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions with warm temperatures slowly cooling to
near normal by early next week. Isolated Sierra thunderstorms
through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northern California currently under upper level northeast flow
between high pressure over the Pacific Northwest and a low
pressure system off the Socal coast. Temperatures today should
come in similar to Thursdays under a similar airmass. A shift of
the upper low slightly farther south today should shift Sierra
thunderstorm activity a bit south as well. As a result...any
afternoon Sierra showers or thunderstorms should remain south of
interstate 80. Only minor changes in the overall weather pattern
are expected Saturday. A few afternoon thunderstorms will be
possible south of Tahoe again with most places seeing a slight
cooling although daytime highs will remain slightly above normal.
A weak upper level trough is forecast to approach the Pacific
Northwest coast on Sunday. Onshore flow and a continued moderate
Delta breeze will bring down daytime highs a bit more topping out
just above normal for mid August. The afternoon thunderstorm
threat will again shift northward but an upper west flow will
likely keep any thunderstorms near the crest. Temperatures cool a
bit more on Monday as the upper trough passes to the north with
enough instability for Sierra crest thunderstorms.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Broad upper troughing lingers over the Great Basin while weak ridging
develops over the west coast. Any thunderstorm activity associated
with the trough should stay out of our forecast area, east of the
Sierra crest Tuesday. Daytime highs will remain near to slightly
above normal during the extended forecast. Expect a very subtle
warming trend for interior NorCal from Tuesday through Thursday
with dry conditions. JBB
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions the next 24 hours across TAF sites. A few
thunderstorms likely to form along the Sierra this afternoon,
mainly south of Lake Tahoe. Generally light winds continue across
the Valley, except local SW wind gusts to 25 kt near the Delta.
Dang/JBB

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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