Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 272221
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
321 PM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017


.Synopsis...
Weather system exits the region today with dry and milder weather
expected for NorCal through Wednesday. Another system will brush
through the region Thursday with a few showers.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Thursday)...

Model analysis and water vapor imagery shows the trough base with
this weekend`s system is now beyond northern California and an
upper level high pressure system now gains influence over the
region. Mostly clear skies with a few passing high level clouds
were over the area.

Model forecasts are in good agreement to having the upper level
ridge of high pressure remaining as the dominant weather force for
the next few days until Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually
warm up between 5 and 10 degrees above normal. The next quick
moving trough will slide along the west coast and into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, which will bring some light rain
for the valley and snow for the Sierra. A majority of locations
above 4000 feet may see 1 to 2 inches, with 3 to 4 inches for some
of the higher mountains. Some traffic slow downs are possible, but
major impacts are not expected with this storm system.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Models continue to show an "inside slider" pattern Friday which
means interior NorCal will likely have breezy north winds with
very light, lingering Sierra precipitation possible.

High pressure builds across California next weekend, bringing a
strong warming trend on Saturday. The extended forecast for Sunday
into Monday varies with the longe range models. The GFS has
a trough moving into NorCal with a chance of precipitation while
the ECMWF maintains the ridge and dry conditions. In coordination
with our neighbors, we have introduced a slight chance of
precipitation late Sunday into Monday for higher elevations of our
mountain areas.
JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

Valley TAF sites remain VFR since the morning clearing of low
clouds. Local IFR conditions over the Sierra will continue this
afternoon.

North winds 5-15 kt this afternoon into evening and are expected
to get slightly stronger around 18z Tuesday with gusts around
18-25 kts.

JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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