Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 011028
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
328 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT THANKS TO A
COOLING AIRMASS AND INCREASING DELTA BREEZE. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
STILL ATTEMPTING TO BREAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE LEFT
NEAR-TERM FORECAST RIDE AND WILL SEE IF SHOWERS MATERIALIZE. SO
FAR ONLY A FEW RETURNS OVER SHASTA COUNTY THOUGH. OTHERWISE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NORTH. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE WET THAN
FRIDAY BUT ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN GIVEN DRY FUEL STATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES MORE FROM FRIDAY`S READINGS AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST SHIFTING EAST. STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INFLUENCED AREAS
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT FOCUS
MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS MORE STABLE ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS. MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY FOR NOW AS AREA
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH APPROACHING THE
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO CONVECTION ON WESTERN SIDE
OF SIERRA CREST ALTHO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST
SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE ON MONDAY. FURTHER COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL!
CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS, MAINLY
20Z-03Z SUN. SWLY WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z
SUN. ELSW, WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20
KTS IN THE SAC VLY AFT 23Z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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