Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 232120
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
220 PM PDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Cooler with periods of wet weather as a couple of systems will
bring chances of rain and high elevation snow this week.
A trough of low pressure remains off the west coast and will
continue to spread some high clouds over the area. The models
continue to show the earliest any rain near our area will be
Monday morning along the coastal range. Monday afternoon some
mountains and when the Sacramento valley may start to see some
rain. The GFS is a little bit faster and wetter than the NAM. The
NAM does not bring any rain to the Sacramento area until late
Monday night...so problems with timing and rainfall amounts still
persist. Some areas may not get any rain over the Northern San
Joaquin Valley. The best chances and wettest areas continue to
look to be along the northern coastal range and over the northern
half of the Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains.
The system still looks like it will get stretched out over the
region and weaken as it tries to move onshore and push southward
on Monday. Again the GFS indicates more rainfall than the NAM. No
major impacts are expected with this storm. Snow levels will be
high so any new snow will mostly be over the peaks and maybe some
of the higher seasonal mountain roads. Breezy conditions should
develop late tonight over the northern areas and on Monday for
everyone else. Locally windy conditions are still possible over
the far north end of the valley and over the ridgetops.
The system will start to lift northward slightly on Tuesday
afternoon then even more Tuesday night keeping chances of rain or
showers north of the Sacramento region and over the northern
portions of the interior valley and mountains.
Wednesday brief ridging will occur over the area to bring us a dry
day with some chances of precipitation developing along the
northern coastal range Wednesday night.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Unsettled weather pattern expected Thursday into the weekend next week.
Details still difficult to nail down as weather over our region
battles between a trough to our west and ridging to our east. Have
kept chances for precipitation in our CWA for much of the extended
forecast. However, both the ECMWF and GFS are in agreement that we
could see somewhat of a break on Saturday morning/afternoon. Snow
levels expected to remain fairly high so no significant impacts
forecast at this time.
VFR conditions continue with SCT-BKN250 but ceilings will become BKN-OVC100
Monday as a storm moves into NorCal. South winds around 5-10 kts
at TAF sites through 12z Monday. South winds strengthen Monday by
18z and continue through the afternoon as cold front approaches
with sustained winds 10-15 kts and gusts around 20-30 kts.