Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 110408
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
908 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HIGH CLOUDS AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. END OF NEXT WEEK COULD SEE
MORE CLOUDS AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM
A very weak weather system is moving through the north with the
interior staying dry. Some easterly flow will develop over the
mountains by morning with northerly flow developing in the valley
behind the weak front. A flat ridge will remain over the area into
Monday before a ridge starts to build over the area for Tuesday.
Above normal temperatures will continue the next several days
with decent cooling in valley areas the next several nights.
Thermal belt areas will only cool off into the 60s the next few
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Dry and warm weather look to continue through at least Wednesday.
By Wednesday night or Thursday, a closed upper low off the Baja
coast begins to approach California. The GFS phases this system in
with an approaching upper trough, bringing scattered showers and
possibly some thunderstorms mainly across the NorCal mountains.
The ECMWF takes a more southerly trajectory across SoCal, leaving
our forecast area dry. We`ve maintained "slight chance" wording
mainly across the mountains to account for this uncertainty.
Dry weather is expected next Friday, with potentially a stronger
wave setting up for next weekend. The ECMWF has backed off a bit
with its latest run, but the GFS maintains at least some
precipitation moving through the forecast area. For now, we`ve
increased the possibility of seeing at least some precipitation
across the forecast area.
VFR conditions the next 24 hours. lcl w wind gusts to 25kt over
ridges and through the delta through 09z.