Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 131209
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
409 AM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Next storm system moves thru the area into early Tuesday with some
showers and accumulating high elevation snow. A cooler storm
system moves through northern California Wednesday and Thursday
with more significant mountain snowfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light showers have been slowly working inland overnight as the
weather system approaches. Precip amounts have been generally
light ranging from 1/4 to 1/2 inch in the mountains north of
Redding, less than 1/4 inch in the Coast Range and only a few
hundredths of an inch in the far northern Sierra. With all the
cloud cover, current temperatures are milder compared to 24 hours
ago and range from the mid 30s to lower 40s in the mountains to
the mid 40s to mid 50s in the Central Valley.

Weather system moves slowly south over the next 24 hours. Precip
amounts will be light in the valley, but some mountain areas may
see upwards of an inch. Light snow accumulations for the passes
are expected with snow levels dropping to 4000-6000 feet, but
travel impacts are expected to be minimal with 2-5 inch amounts
possible through the higher passes.

Dry weather is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night with a weak high
pressure in between the transition of the two disturbances aloft.

The next stronger system swings southward Wednesday into Thursday
with another round of widespread precipitation. Models are in
better agreement with this system, but the EC remains a little
slower. This system will have the potential for more significant
precipitation and winter weather impacts for the mountains.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
Upper level ridging will lead to dry conditions and a slight warm
up across interior NorCal on Friday. The pattern becomes
uncertain beyond Friday regarding the upcoming series of storms
given model disagreement. Although a moisture tap will be in
place, confidence is low in terms of the progression and evolution
of precipitation. Therefore, have slowed timing and lowered PoPs
accordingly. Moreover, it is too early to determine any potential
impacts given model differences.

&&

.AVIATION...
A Pacific storm system will continue to bring VFR/MVFR
precipitation north of I-80 this morning; conditions should spread
southward in the afternoon/evening hours. Gusts up to 20 kts
possible from KOVE northward through 00z Tuesday, higher gusts
over the mountains.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday
night for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.

&&

$$



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