Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 132259
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
259 PM PST Sat Jan 13 2018


.Synopsis...
Dry this weekend with night and morning valley fog. Periods
of precipitation Monday through Friday.

&&

.Discussion...
Dry conditions will continue into Monday before the next system
moves through the region. The main concern will be with the
potential for fog to develop. Where the fog has lifted earlier
there is a persistent status deck and under that deck of stratus
fog might not be that bad and the places where the fog may become
dense would be near the fringes of the status deck. It is still
possible within the status deck for some patches of dense fog to
form but that would likely not occur until late tonight and Sunday
morning.

The next system will move into the region late Monday into
Tuesday morning. There is some timing differences with the onset
of precipitation with the GFS slightly faster than the NAM but
overall the movement of the front is very similar. Snow levels
will be high initially but then lower below major pass levels
Monday night.

Currently snowfall amounts look to be upwards of around six
inches near the major pass levels with higher amounts across the
peaks. Rainfall could range one to one and half inches in the
mountains to between a quarter to half and inch of rain for the
valley.

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)



Slight ridging will bring a brief break between weather systems on
Wednesday. A colder, wetter winter storm will begin to make its
way into interior NorCal overnight Wednesday and will continue to
impact the area through Friday. Snow levels will remain around
pass level through Thursday before rapidly dropping Thursday
evening to below 5000 feet. This storm is expected to bring the
highest mountain snow amounts of the season so far. At this time,
the heaviest precipitation is expected Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night, with the heaviest snowfall Thursday night.
Forecast precipitation amounts for Wednesday night through Friday
range from less than an inch of rain in the valley, 1-2 inches
over the foothills, and up to 3 inches over the mountains. For
snow amounts, up to 12-18 inches is possible at pass level
over the entire storm with a couple inches of snow possible at
elevations down to 3000 feet overnight Thursday. Most of the area
will get another brief break on Saturday, though light
precipitation could linger over the higher elevations. Models
continue to hint at another weather system early next week. HEC

&&

.AVIATION...


IFR/MVFR conditions are beginning to disperse but will continue
through much of the valley, mainly Sacramento and southward,
until the evening. VFR conditions elsewhere. Fog expected to
return after 3z Sunday for valley areas south of Red Bluff. Light
winds generally less than 10kt. HEC

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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