Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 131551
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
851 AM PDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure and well above normal temperatures will continue into
Monday, followed by a series of weak troughs that move through
northern California throughout the week.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
Low clouds around the Sacramento region this morning will burn
off between 10 and 11 am with skies becoming sunny. Some patches of
fog have been reported in the motherlode this morning that will
burn off shortly.

Surface high pressure over Oregon and into the Great Basin will
result in north winds today up to around 10 to 15 mph with some
higher gusts possible. As a result, temperatures will warm into
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

A weak shortwave moving into Western Canada on Monday will bring
slightly cooler temperatures to the interior by Tuesday. The
models are still uncertain on which way the temperatures will go
on Monday so for now have similar temperatures forecast for today
and Monday. At this time conditions still look dry over the
interior through Wednesday.


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

A ridge moving inland Thursday will bring the warmest
temperatures of the week, with low 80s in the Central Valley and
60s to 70s in the mountains.

The forecast becomes less certain from Friday onward as generally
westerly flow aloft sets in. The general model consensus is a
weak trough will move through the Pacific NW (brushing our
northern fringes), followed by another weak trough by Sunday.
Model confidence metrics show little predictability through this
timeframe, so have trended forecast towards climatology as
uncertainty increases. This translates to a slight chance of
showers for the mountains and dry weather for most of the Central
Valley (except perhaps the northern reaches of the Sac Valley).
Beyond next weekend, the models are not showing any significant
pattern changes. -DVC


&&

.Aviation...

Predominantly VFR conditions next 24 hours. Exception will be an
area of low clouds from the Delta to the Sierra Foothills with its
northern edge along KSMF-KLHM-KAUN and the southern edge roughly along
KLVK-KMOD-KO22. This patch of clouds will bring local MVFR
ceilings and is moving southward as northerly wind flow develops.
Expect these clouds to dissipate between 16-17z for the Sac metro
region and by 18-19z for the KSCK-KMOD vicinity. Some breezy north to
northwest winds 10-20 knots expected from around Redding (KRDD)
southward through the Valley this afternoon.   JBB

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







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