Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 211110
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
410 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Continued warm and dry except isolated late day mountain
thunderstorms today and Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cloud cover from Saturday evenings convective activity has mostly
disipated and skies have cleared over the CWA. An upper level
trough is forecast to approach the coast this afternoon which
will bring a continuation of onshore flow and the slow cooling
trend. Daytime highs today should come in right around normal for
this time of year. Models in good agreement in bringing some mild
instability over the Sierra crest today and a bit over the coast
range so kept in a slight threat of afternoon thunderstorms these
areas. The upper trough axis crosses into the Great Basin by
Monday morning so left a threat of morning showers over the Sierra
Monday morning. Monday afternoon likely to see some isolated
afternoon thunderstorms as upper trough axis crosses through. Just
a bit more cooling on Monday will bring daytime highs down to a
little below normal. Tuesday looks dry across the CWA as upper
flow transitions to northwest. Little change is expected in
daytime highs. Dry with a little warming on Wednesday as upper
ridge amplifies over the eastern Pacific.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Interior NorCal will sit between high pressure over the
Eastern Pacific Ocean and a broad trough over the Great Basin that
angles westward towards CA. Daytime highs will generally be within a
few degrees of normal during the extended forecast: upper 80s to
upper 90s for the valley, and 70s to 80s for higher terrain. Models
show a weak upper level low impacting northern California on
Friday into the weekend. This may bring an isolated shower to the
Sierra just north of Yosemite, otherwise, no significant weather
exptected.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. A few afternoon thunderstorms possible
again this afternoon in the Sierra and Coastal Range. Generally
light winds continue across the Valley, except local SW wind gusts
to 25 kt near the Delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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