Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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747
FXUS66 KSTO 071638
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
838 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather for interior NorCal for the next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong high pressure along with offshore flow will result in very
mild temperatures across the region the next several days.
Increasing north and east surface pressure gradients will result
in some locally breezy northerly winds in the Sacramento Valley,
and east winds in the northern Sierra, today and tonight. No
updates.

&&

.Previous Discussion...
A strong upper ridge over the region will bring very mild
temperatures early this week, peaking on Monday. Current
temperatures are generally 2 to 6 degrees warmer than this time
yesterday, with light northerly winds. Some light patchy fog and
mist is possible for the southern Sacramento and northern San
Joaquin Valleys.

High temperatures today are forecast to be very mild, especially
from around I80 northward, reaching the low to mid 70s. Breezy north
winds are expected to develop by afternoon over the Sacramento
Valley, with gusts up to 25 mph. These will continue into the
early evening. Lighter winds and high temperatures generally in
the upper 60s expected for the northern San Joaquin Valley today.
Gusty northeast winds overnight into early Monday over Sierra
ridges and northeast oriented canyons.

Monday will start very mild, with lows in the lower foothills and
northern/central Sacramento Valley likely to remain in the 50s.
Widespread highs in the 70s expected for much of the Valley,
foothills, and Delta. The record high of 71 at Sacramento could be
broken. Locations in the northern Sacramento Valley will be the
warmest and may reach the mid to upper 70s. The record high of 75
in Redding could be in jeopardy. North winds continue through the
day but will be lighter as the surface pressure gradient
decreases. Tuesday and Wednesday will be a little cooler as the
ridge axis shifts eastward. Dry weather continues, as the strong
ridge deflects moisture to the north. EK

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday thru Sunday)...
Upper level high pressure ridge over the western U.S continues to
shift eastward on Thursday but dry and warm conditions continue
with daytime highs remaining well above normal. Models consistent
in moving a weak Pacific frontal system onshore by late Friday
afternoon. Even strongest GFS solution is barely able to hold this
system together as it runs into the western U.S ridge. For
now...have kept some light rain in the coast range and Shasta
county mountains but even this may be a bit overdone. Upper trough
lifts northward into the Pacific northwest on Saturday leaving
most of the forecast area dry but northern mountains may see a few
light showers. As the trough digs back southward into the Great
Basin a few light showers may spread southward down into the
Sierra but any precipitation should remain insignificant. Upper
ridge rebuilds on Sunday but models very on how much. GFS keeps
ridge flat enough that northern mountains could see a few light
showers. Otherwise dry and warm conditions continue into early
next week.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions next 24 hours except MVFR visibility southern
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valley through about 18z.
Increasing north to east winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$



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