Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 142217
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
317 PM PDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with well above normal high temperatures continuing
through Thursday with a slight chance of showers over the northern
mountains on Friday into the weekend. Breezy northerly winds possible
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
Daytime highs still on the rise as a high pressure ridge over
NorCal brings another day of above normal temperatures. Current
thermometers across the valley are ranging in the mid 70s to low
80s. Temperatures over higher elevations are currently ranging
from the mid-50s (near Sierra crest) to the mid 70s (foothills).
Overnight lows will be near to slightly above normal.

For those of you staying up tonight to watch the eclipse between
11 pm to 2:30 am (PDT): There will be some high clouds streaming
over NorCal but they should be few to scattered so that you can
still see the moon for most of the event. Temperatures in the
valley will start off in the upper 50s to low 60s around 11
pm...becoming mid to upper 50s during the total eclipse (midnight
to 1:30 am)...low to mid 50s by the end of the eclipse. For higher
elevations, the temperatures during the eclipse will be in the 30s
near Sierra Crest and into the low 50s for elevations above the
foothills.

Tomorrow onward, the forecast will remain warm and dry. Daytime
highs will cool slightly as a system approaches the Pacific
Northwest. In terms of impacts for our CWA in the short term,
there will be breezy to locally gusty winds expected Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Winds will be enhanced in the Sacramento
Valley into the Northern San Joaquin Valley, especially along the
I-5 corridor and westward. Gusts up to around 30-35 mph are
possible for these regions.

By Thursday, winds will return to light flow and temperatures will
warm slightly as slight ridging re-develops. Daytime highs in the
valley could warm back towards the mid 80s for our CWA. On
Thursday night, this ridge pushes eastward as the first of a
series of weak storm waves moves into the West Coast. We could
start to see some very light precipitation over the highest
elevations Thursday night.  JBB

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models continue to struggle with the weak storm waves that could
brush NorCal from Friday into the weekend. This first wave late
Thursday into early Friday morning could bring a slight chance of
light showers to the Northern Sacramento valley and surrounding
terrain. Some light, isolated showers could linger on Friday in
the mountains. On Saturday, the latest models are showing a drier
trend so have lessened the slight chance of showers to just the
highest elevations within our CWA. The CNRFC is estimating that
total rain amounts from Thursday through Saturday will only amount to
a few hundredths of an inch with some local areas getting around a
tenth of an inch. For Sunday, the ECMWF and GFS are showing a dry,
ridging pattern while the GEM shows another weak trough brushing
NorCal so have kept minimal areas of slight chance of showers.
Despite the low confidence in details, impacts will be minimal
with these weak storm waves. JBB


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions for interior NorCal for the next 24 hours.
Generally light southerly winds through this evening. Exceptions
are locally gusts to around 20 kt in the Delta and northwest winds
generally at or below 10 kt for the northern San Joaquin Valley.
Winds shift to northwest across the Valley Tuesday around 5-10 kt,
with west winds gusting to 25 kt in the Sierra. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







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