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000
FXUS66 KSTO 151008
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
308 AM PDT SAT JUN 15 2013


.SYNOPSIS...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SHASTA
COUNTY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA COUNTY. SUNNY AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON FRIDAY. THE DELTA SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH DELTA FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE DELTA
AND SACRAMENTO METRO AREA WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS A RESULT.
LOWS ELSEWHERE MAY ACTUALLY GO UP A LITTLE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVELY A LITTLE COOLER AS AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST GRADUALLY MOVES
EASTWARD. A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH SOME
INSTABILITY WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL GENERALLY MEAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT
RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. EK

EK


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW COULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA (GFS
MODEL) OR BRUSHING THROUGH THE NORTH (EUROPEAN MODEL). WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE EUROPEAN FOR NOW WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY MOUNTAINS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. ZONAL/WEAK RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO
GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXPECTED. EK

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT010 POSSIBLE IN THE
DELTA AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS EXCEPT
THROUGH THE DELTA 10 TO 20 GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$