Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 250504
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
904 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather continues, then a pattern change on
Friday leading to cooler and wetter weather Friday into the
weekend. There is the potential for snow impacting travel in the
mountains above 3500 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Dry with generally light northerly flow is expected to continue
through Wednesday night. A weak dry system will move into the
Great Basin from the Northwest on Thursday that will result in
increased northerly that day. Breezy conditions will likely
develop on Thursday.

On Friday a weak weather system will move into the region. This
system does not look to have a lot of precipitation associated
with it but will mainly bring shower chances to the interior with
snow possible above 4500 to 5500 feet. Isolated thunderstorms may
be possible late in the day and evening...mainly for areas north
of I-80. Cooler air filtering into the region will bring colder
temperatures on Friday as well.
 &&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Wetter weather looks to make a return for the weekend, as a well
defined wave moves SSE from the Pac NW within NW flow. Models are
in agreement on the Low placement near the CA/NV as it tracks
southward. As a result, we think the entire region has a decent
shot at seeing showers. Amounts should remain light, especially in
the Valley, as moisture is limited. The forecast concern is snow
accumulation and snow levels, as this system will be colder than
other systems so far this season. Snow levels could drop as low as
3500 by Saturday into Sunday. This may lead to some travel
headaches below pass levels and will be one to watch. The best
instability is setting up Saturday as the Low moves overhead and
added slight thunderstorm chances.

Another system is forecast to move SE from Pac NW by early to mid
next week. The models track the low center farther east over the
eastern Great Basin (Idaho to Utah). This may bring only a
relatively drier, trailing cold front through NorCal. However,
the pattern recognition indicates some potential for significant
N to NE winds Tue into Wed.


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions over the interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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