Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 221602

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
902 AM PDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Cooling trend this weekend with a chance of precipitation
spreading over the forecast area Monday through next week as an
upper level disturbance approaches northern California.


A trough of low pressure will deepen along the west coast this
weekend. The interior is expected to stay dry but gradually become
cooler each day. Currently the models show the earliest any rain
near our area will be Monday morning and some areas may not get
any rain. The best chances look to be along the northern coastal
range and over the northern half of the Sacramento valley and
mountains. Rainfall amounts and timing continues to be an issue.

The system may get stretched out over the region and weaken as it
tries to move onshore. No major impacts are expected with this
storm but it may bring some snow below the major pass levels in
the Sierra Nevada.



Models differ on timing of waves lifting out of the persistent
trough over the eastern Pacific into NorCal later next week, and
how much entrainment of deeper moisture from the south will occur,
as the ECMWF is generally wetter. Will leave POPS generally in the
chance category until better timing resolution develops.


VFR conds nxt 24 hrs with SCT-BKN250, exc local MVFR vsbys nrn SJ
Vly 13Z-16Z.


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