Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 280405
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
905 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.Synopsis...
Scattered showers over the mountains with light snow
accumulations over the higher elevations. A little breezy behind
this system on Thursday, then dry and warmer.

&&

.Discussion...
Active day earlier has been calming down throughout the evening.
Earlier Thunderstorms produced hail up to 3/4 inch was reported,
a number of funnel clouds, heavy rain that produced some local
flooding. There was also a report of a tornado touchdown near
Waterford in Stanislaus County. We haven`t been able to
confirm the touchdown as of yet but reports seem promising.

Scattered showers are lingering over the mountains but will
continue to taper overnight. The morning looks dry at this time
but Thursday afternoon some showers and possible thunderstorms may
pop up near the crest south of I-80...other than that everywhere
else looks dry, warmer and breezy.

On Friday and Friday night there will be a low pressure area that
drops down from the north and into Nevada that may bring some
showers to the western slopes including the Burney Basin. The NAM
is indicating fairly dry conditions with just isolated showers
while the GFS is a lot wetter through Saturday so some uncertainty
still exists for that area and precipitation. As a result of that
low pressure area temperatures for the interior are not expected
to change a lot through Saturday with the main warm up occurring
Thursday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

A ridge of high pressure will dominate the long term forecast
period with warm temperatures and quiet weather. The strongest
portion of the high pressure system will be Sunday and Monday,
which as a result, will bring above normal temperatures to the
region. The Valley could see temperatures in the mid to upper 80s,
which would be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of
year.

A higher amplitude trough of low pressure will slide down into the
eastern Pacific just off shore of California Monday and Tuesday.
High temperatures will cool slightly, but ranges will still be
around 5 degrees above normal. Some slight chances for showers are
possible along the Coastal Range, but otherwise no significant
weather or precipitation is expected during the long term period.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should persist for the next 24 hours. Shower activity
from earlier this evening has diminished in the valley so TAF
sites should remain dry although light snow showers will continue
over the Sierra tonight. Winds have also diminished and will be
around 10 kts or less overnight. North to northwest winds will
pick up tomorrow around 18z with sustained winds at TAF sites
ranging 10-15 kts and gusts up to 22 kts. Those enhanced winds
will begin to lessen after 00z Fri. JBB
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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