Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 270459
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
959 PM PDT Sun Oct 26 2014
Drier and milder weather as a warming trend impacts our region
through midweek. On Wednesday and Thursday, a weak storm wave may
bring slight chances of precipitation to the Northern Sacramento
Valley and surrounding mountains. Then models are showing a
stronger, wetter storm system for Friday and Saturday that will
Mostly clear and dry this evening over NorCal under northwest
flow ahead of ridge over the eastern Pacific. Only change made to
forecast was to remove patchy fog over the Sacramento valley.
At least light North winds should continue through the valley
overnight keeping dew-point/temp spreads over 4 degrees F.
Spreads are generally between 10-15 degrees F at 9 pm and don`t
expect significant low level moisture push from the delta. All
short term models remain fog free overnight. Will continue to
carry patchy fog over the mountain valleys however...where the
north winds will have less impact.
.Previous Discussion (Today through Wednesday)...
Pleasant day across interior NorCal with fairly clear skies,
a bit of fresh snow over the Sierra from yesterday`s storm and
mild temperatures. Northerly valley winds started to enhance
earlier today between 11 am and noon in our CWA - from Marysville
southward to Modesto. Sustained winds in this area have ranged
10-20 mph with local gusts up to 25 mph and are forecast to lessen
Max temperatures are on track to reach the mid 60s to low 70s
across the valley today while mountain highs will range in the
mid 40s (crest) to mid 60s (foothills).
For Monday into midweek, we`ll see the dry weather continue with
a warming trend in daytime highs. Temperatures will rebound into
the mid to upper 70s in the Valley and 50s to low 70s in the
mountain and foothills. A weak storm wave could bring slight
chances of precipitation to the Northern Sacramento Valley and
surrounding terrain on Wednesday & Thursday, but the rest of our
CWA will continue with dry, mild weather. Notable change to our
weather pattern for all of NorCal expected by the end of the week.
.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)
Amplifying ridge forecast over the western US later this week as
another trough deepens over the eastern Pacific. Forecast
confidence has increased somewhat as better agreement has
developed between the GFS, GEM and EC in handling the progression
of the trough inland next weekend though there are still timing
differences in the onset of precipitation that may affect
Halloween. Regardless, appears much of the region will see a
chance of precipitation Friday into Saturday.
VFR conditions next 24 hours.