Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 290454
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
950 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2015
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for most
of the region. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this Sunday into early next week.
Although max temps were mostly cooler over Norcal today (except in
the Siernev and in the areas that benefited from adiabatic warming
due to Nly winds i.e. Lake Co...West side of Sac Vly...and Solano Co
due to adiabatic warming off the Vaca Mtns) a max of 84 resulted in
records at SAC...and ties at DTS and SCK. The previous records for
the date at these locations took a little dip from a couple of days
A couple of warm days remain ahead for Sun/Mon with (near) records
possible on Sun and mainly over the Srn Sac/Nrn SJV sites on Mon.
The weak wave dropping over the Srn part of the CWA may trigger a
shower or two over the far SErn corner of the CWA around Alpine Co
on Sun. Otherwise dry wx ahead until a chance of showers far Nrn
zones on Tue. A very dry first quarter to 2015 places some of the
sites in the top 5 driest which we will hi-lite in future
As a weak ridge builds over the area on Sunday a very weak
shortwave will move through the southern CWA area. The models are
trying to indicate some showers near the crest from around Alpine
County southward on Sunday as a result of this shortwave. The
shortwave moves to the east by Monday and an approaching low
pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast will gradually
break down the ridge and replace it with cyclonic flow aloft.
On Tuesday that weak system will pass by to the north and may
bring a few showers over the far north end of the valley and
mountain areas north of I-80. Areas to the south will be
remaining dry but much cooler by 5 to 15 degrees with the greatest
cooling occurring in the mountains.
.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
A secondary weak wave will pass through Northern California
Wednesday into Wednesday night. The latest model runs are a little
bit wetter than previous ones, but keep any sort of precipitation
mainly along the Shasta County mountains and southern Cascades.
High pressure will return Thursday into Friday and could result in
another period of breezy north winds.
Longer range models are hinting at a potentially stronger and
colder system moving through Northern California next weekend.
There is still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to timing
and intensity of that system, but we`ll pay close attention to
VFR SKC conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Mostly Northerly
winds below 10 kts.