Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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788
FXUS66 KSTO 101101
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
301 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light showers possible over the northern mountains Friday
through Sunday. Otherwise dry and mild through early next week.
The next chance of rain for most of northern California comes the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong upper ridge over the western U.S weakens a bit today
allowing for just a bit of cooling overall. As a result...high
temperatures on Wednesday should come in at least a little below
record although a couple weak records could be topped. Stable
conditions under the ridge have allowed for light fog formation
again this morning in the San Joaquin valley and this will be the
case again over the next couple of nights. Only slight changes
expected on Thursday although some increase in high clouds could
bring down high temperatures a degree or two. The upper ridge
pushes eastward a bit more on Friday as a weak Pacific storm
system pushes northeastward into the Pacific Northewest. Although
it is unlikely precipitation will impact areas this far
south...light showers could be possible from about Red Bluff
northward. Upper trough passes to the north on Saturday so slight
precip chance continues through the day. Cloud cover and slightly
cooler airmass bring down high temperatures Friday and Saturday
but daytime highs will still be well above normal.
&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

High pressure dominates late in the weekend and into early next
week. A weak transitory wave moves southeast down the backside of
the ridge through NorCal and western Great Basin on Sunday. We
shouldn`t see any precipitation with it, but locally breezy north
to northeast winds will develop in its wake Sunday into early
Monday. The broad ridge axis moves east of California on Tuesday
with southwest flow aloft and boundary layer onshore winds. The
GFS and ECMWF are still hinting at a more dynamic frontal system
impacting NorCal next Wednesday into Thursday.     JClapp
&&

.AVIATION...

Big bubble of high pressure means no trouble today except for
some patchy ground fog like seen last couple mornings. Light
terrain-driven winds continue.    JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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