Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 151711
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1011 AM PDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.Synopsis...
Cooler temperatures for much of this work week. Mountain showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be possible for parts of the area
today, and with better and more widespread chances Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.Update Discussion...
Another hot day on tap for today, but change is in the winds for
the rest of this week. Current temperatures are a few degrees
warmer this morning, except for the northern Sacramento Valley,
where it`s slightly cooler. 850 mb temperatures show little change
until later today, and then more tomorrow. Surface temperatures
this afternoon will be similar to those of yesterday, maybe a few
degrees cooler for Delta breeze influenced areas.

An upper level shortwave is brushing through northwestern
California today. Mid level moisture looks inadequate to bring
sprinkles to most of the Valley today with just some mid level
cloud cover expected. The potential for showers and maybe a few afternoon
thunderstorms remains for the higher Sierra and mountains of
western Plumas County. The best instability appears to be along
and east of the Sierra crest, north of I80. There is a fairly
short window of time for convection early this afternoon, with
limited synoptic lift with mainly orographics and some afternoon
heating. Dry weather returns by late afternoon.

A more significant system comes in mid week and could bring the
potential for some precipitation across the area and much cooler
temperatures. Models are converging on a cool trough closing off
into a low over the central coast then drifting southward. The
exact track is still uncertain at this point. The details of the
track will determine if this could bring some convection to the area,
pull up some southerly moisture, and/or linger over the region
into the weekend. The 00z ECMWF has the slower, more interesting
scenario, while the 12z GFS is quicker and bring the low more
south and then eastward out of the area with ridging and heat
returning. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Generally VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours as an upper
level low approaches the coast. Mid and high clouds will move
through the area with a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
Burney Basin and Lassen Park area this afternoon. Local southwest
surface wind gusts to 35 kts possible over mountains and in the
Delta this afternoon and evening.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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