Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 250940
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
240 AM PDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and dry weather for much of the next week. Locally breezy
northerly wind will increase fire weather danger across Sacramento
Valley today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft has moved into Northern California as an upper
low over the Northern Rockies moves eastward. Surface high
pressure has slowly built into eastern Oregon and Idaho, resulting
in a modest northerly pressure gradient developing over NorCal.
North winds are fairly light for the most part across the region,
though some locally breezy winds are being reported mainly across
favored northern Sierra and Shasta-Trinity canyons.

Expect a fair bit of airmass warming today as heights and
thicknesses increase, and some adiabatic compressional heating
with north winds. High temperatures are expected to reach right
around the century mark across the Valley today, with 70s to 90s
for the mountains. High temperatures will warm another degree or
two each day for the next few days. Tuesday and Wednesday
currently look to be the hottest days of this heat stretch, with
temperatures expected to reach the 102 to 107 degree range across
the Valley.

Dang

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

High pressure over the southwest U.S. dominates the weather pattern
through the extended period bringing mainly fair skies and above
normal temperatures. The warmest temperatures of the week are
forecast to hit on Wednesday where many valley locations will see
high temperatures of 105 or higher. Some extended models hinting
at some moisture working up the southern Sierra possibly bringing
afternoon showers or thunderstorms northward. The best chance of
this moisture making it within the CWA borders looks to be
Wednesday or Thursday as the upper flow becomes most southerly. At
this time impact from any isolated shower activity appears would
be very limited staying south of Tahoe and only over higher
elevations of the northern Sierra. A slight cooling trend begins
on Thursday and carries on through the end of the week as the
upper ridge shifts inland slightly. This is in response to weak
troughing that develops over the eastern Pacific. Models differ a
bit on strength of this trough but do have some consistency in
its existence during the later half of the week. A more onshore
flow Friday and Saturday will continue to bring a slight cooling
trend although daytime highs will remain above normal by several
degrees. Meanwhile a more southwest to west flow aloft should
shunt any afternoon Sierra shower activity south and east of the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions next 24 hours. Breezy north to northeast winds
today up to 10 to 15 knots with local gusts to 25 knots through
today. Winds generally below 10 knots this evening and tonight.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM PDT this evening for portions of the
Sacramento Valley and surrounding Coastal Range and Sierra
foothills.

&&

$$


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