Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 301126
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
426 AM PDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.Synopsis...
Warm and fairly dry weather will continue today. Weak weather systems
may bring a few intermittent showers to the mountains Tuesday and
Wednesday along with cooler temperatures. Another chance of
precipitation will be possible next weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Clear skies across most of the region early this morning except
for areas of high clouds beginning to move across the northwest
corner of the state. Conditions are pretty similar to those of 24
hours ago with generally light winds and temperatures mainly in
the 30s and 40s in the mountain valleys and upper 40s to mid 50s
in the Central Valley.

One more day of record/near record warmth expected across the
interior of NorCal today. The upper ridge axis will begin to move
inland into the Rockies over the next 24 hours as a short-wave
trough approaches the PacNW. The warm airmass will remain over the
region today and more records will be in jeopardy. Below are the
record temperatures for today with the current forecast highs.

City Forecast High Record High

Redding AP8286 (2002)
Red Bluff AP8288 (2002)
Downtown Sac8486 (1966)
Sac Exec AP8283 (2001)
Stockton AP8482 (1966)
Modesto AP8584 (1968)

Significant cooling on the order of 10-15 degrees is expected
across the region Tuesday as the system moves into the PacNW. Most
of the region will remain dry, but the northern mountains may see
a few showers. Breezy northerly winds develop through the Central
Valley by the afternoon.

A weak trough is forecast to linger over the region Wednesday,
then another short-wave is forecast to clip the area late
Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing another chance for a few
showers to the northern mountains and northern Sierra. Weak high
pressure returns for Thursday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)...
High pressure remains in place Friday and could result in
continued breezy north to northeast winds. Longer range models are
hinting at a transition to a cooler and more unsettled pattern
this weekend and early next week. The ECMWF and GFS both show
decent spread in their ensembles, but all are suggesting a colder
and wetter system setting up for the west. The ECMWF and GEM are
in pretty good agreement with trough placement just offshore late
in the period, while the GFS`s trough is farther east. Right now,
we favored the ECMWF and GEM solution and increased precipitation
chances late in the period, especially next Monday night into
Tuesday. JClapp

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conds will cont the next 24 hours. Generally light winds this
morning, increase from S to SW this afternoon. Next system may
bring light showers to northern mtns tonight into Tue. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$



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