Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 200602
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1102 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2016
Dry and warm conditions will prevail for the valley with a
cooling trend into the weekend. Isolated Sierra thunderstorms
expected through early next week.
Moderate delta breeze ongoing with gusts to 35 mph through the
delta. Temperatures generally running 3 to 6 degrees below 24
hours ago. Marine layer does not appear deep enough to bring
stratus into the Sacramento valley overnight. Current forecast is
on track and no evening update will be needed.
The upper level low that brought thunderstorms to the Sierra
yesterday has moved southward and is currently off the coast of
Southern California. Subsequently, we are expecting today`s
thunderstorm activity to remain south of Lake Tahoe. Tomorrow,
activity is expected to shift even further south (Tuolumne county
and southward) while the rest of interior Northern California
should remain dry. A healthy onshore flow will continue and help
moderate temperatures near the delta.
A weak trough will approach our area Sunday bringing a few
degrees of synoptic cooling and near normal temperatures to most
of our area. The one exception may be the Northern Sacramento
Valley and surrounding mountains where temperatures may still be 5
degrees above normal. Thunderstorm activity is expected to shift
back northward on Sunday with most of the convection confined
near the Sierra crest and eastward. However, an isolated
afternoon thunderstorm along the coastal range is certainly not
out of the question.
On Monday, highs look to cool a couple of degrees from Sunday as
the upper level trough passes to our north. Afternoon
thunderstorms are expected to continue near the Sierra crest while
skies remain clear in the Central Valley. Wilson
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
Broad upper troughing lingers over the Great Basin while weak ridging
develops over the west coast next week. This will allow for a
slight warming trend in temperatures for Tuesday into Thursday.
Daytime highs will be near 100 degrees for the northern Valley,
low to mid 90s elsewhere in the Valley, and 70s-80s across higher
elevations. At this point, it looks like any thunderstorm activity
should remain south and east of the local area during the period,
but cannot rule out an isolated storm near the Sierra crest south
of Lake Tahoe during the afternoon hours. Otherwise dry weather
VFR conditions the next 24 hours across TAF sites. A few afternoon
thunderstorms, mainly south of Lake Tahoe. Generally light winds
continue across the Valley, except local SW wind gusts to 30 kt
near the Delta.