Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 112243
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
343 PM PDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.Synopsis...
A weak system will bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains this evening and over the Sierra
on Saturday. High pressure and well above normal temperatures
dominate into early next week, followed by a series of weak
troughs that move through northern California by the middle of
next week.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Today through Monday)...
Upper level low along the Southern and Central California Coast
this afternoon. Bands of clouds rotating around the low through
Northern California. Temperatures are running similar to
yesterday in the North and a few degrees cooler along and south of the
Interstate 80 corridor closer to the low. Some cumulus are
developing over the mountains with some mid level moisture and
instability. An isolated shower and thunderstorm are possible late
this afternoon and evening over the mountains. Cumulus may develop
again over the Sierra tomorrow afternoon and evening...mainly
south of Highway 50. Temperatures will be a little cooler tomorrow
with a little cooler air mass over the area but still above normal
for this time of year. Temperatures warm up a little on Sunday with
weak ridging over the area. Ridge shifts to the east on Monday as
a weak trough approaches the area late Monday with temperatures
expected to stay similar to Sunday. Breezy North to Northeast
winds are possible Sunday into early Monday as the surface high
moves into the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Latest model runs have trended to keep weak shortwaves and moisture
farther north...placing northern California in a drier, northwest
flow pattern for Tuesday through Thursday. Therefore, have
increased temperatures and snow levels and reduced the precipitation
chances to far northern Shasta County (mainly mountains) to just
Wednesday night and Thursday.

By Friday, a larger disturbance approaches the Pacific Northwest
which would bring a potential for showers for far northern
California Friday. Models have been inconsistent as to strength,
track, and timing of the associated low but currently hold the
main precipitation threat north of the forecast area. Have
continued some shower chances Friday mainly for the mountains and
Shasta County, north of Interstate 80. Shen

&&

.Aviation...

Upr low off the SoCal cst wl mov sloly E into AZ ovr the nxt 24
hrs. VFR conds cont for Intr NorCal thru Sat. Vrbl flow alf bcmg
Nly on Sat. Manly lgt sfc wnds in the Cntrl Vly with LCL SWly gsts to
25 kts poss ovr hyr mtn trrn durg the aftn and in the Delta this
eve.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







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