Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 152223
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
223 PM PST Thu Feb 15 2018


.Synopsis...
Dry and milder weather for the remainder of the week. Next system
brings a chance of showers to the mountains on Sunday followed by
below average temperatures early next week with a possible
widespread freeze.

&&

.Discussion...

Latest satellite imagery shows a ridge of high pressure extending
into NorCal from the eastern Pacific. As a result, dry conditions
and a gradual warming trend is expected across the area. Pressure
gradients relax later today, and lighter winds will set the stage
for patchy frost Friday morning in the valley from about Sacramento
southward. Daytime highs through Saturday are expected to be 5-10
degrees above normal, with Valley highs generally in the 60s
Friday into Saturday.

Models indicate a few weak disturbances cresting the
top of the ridge that could stream some high clouds across the
forecast area. However, no precipitation is expected with these
waves.

A significant pattern change is expected early next week, as a
trough deepens along the West Coast. This system will bring
significantly cooler temperatures, a chance of precipitation
generally over the mountains, and breezier conditions. Morning
lows on Monday are forecast to be below normal, with Valley
locations near or below freezing. This system will have limited
moisture to work with; thus, only light QPF amounts are expected.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

NorCal will be under the influence of troughing next week, leading
to much cooler temperatures. Weak weather system will push through
the area on Monday, with light showers possible across higher
terrain. As colder air filters in, could see some flurries down to
around 1000-1500 feet. Accumulations will be light so not
expecting much in the way of impacts except some slick roads. As
system exits, drier weather and clearing skies will lead to very
cold nights Monday and Tuesday. Much of the valley may see
overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s with patchy frost
possible. Given very warm weather recently and the fact that trees
and agriculture have been blooming early, will be keeping a close
eye on temperature forecast and the need for any frost/freeze
products. Slightly warmer temperatures expected for Wednesday.

CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Wind gusts to 25 kts through 01z
Friday. Lighter winds after, generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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