Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 172253

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
253 PM PST Fri Nov 17 2017

Dry weather through Sunday. Next system moves through Monday with
another during mid week. Each of these next systems will come
with light to moderate precipitation and high snow levels
generally above pass levels.


Major weather system of the past few days has moved into the
Great Basin region. Pacific ridge is building over NorCal behind
this system with dry conditions and northerly surface winds.
Overnight and early morning fog chances seem less likely as north
wind of 5-10 mph should keep mixing and drying from Sacramento
northward. Some patchy fog could form Sacramento southward,
especially in river valleys.

Ridging with dry conditions will continue into Sunday with near
normal temperatures in the low 60`s. A weak weather system will
bring light showers Monday, best chances northern Sacramento
valley and Shasta county. Precip should be light with this system,
generally less than 0.25 for valleys and less than an inch
mountains. Snow levels will be high generally above 8000 feet.



Upper level ridge moves eastward as another disturbance slides
into northern California with more chances for precipitation.
Model forecasts are in general agreement to the atmospheric flow
pattern with moisture streaming into the coast in an atmospheric
river type pattern, but right now latest model runs have the brunt
of the precipitation remaining well to the north of California. If
this pattern holds true, light to moderate rain across the
forecast area can be expected with snow levels well above pass
level and light accumulations at high peaks.


VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional IFR conditions in the valley
with fog and low stratus development towards the morning hours.
Fog and low clouds will diminish in the late morning to early
afternoon hours to mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for the
TAF sites.


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