Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 262327
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
427 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...updated aviation discussion for smoke tonight...

.Synopsis...
Above normal temps into next week. Daytime highs topping 100 this
weekend across the valley. The Sierra crest will see a threat of
thunderstorms Sunday through much of next week while storms spread
into the northern mountains Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly clear skies across the region this afternoon. High clouds,
marking the leading edge of another batch of monsoonal moisture,
are beginning to move into the southern portion of the forecast
area. Temperatures remain hot again this afternoon as the Delta
Breeze slumbers, ranging from the mid 90s to around 102 in the
valley at mid-afternoon.

Smoke from the Sand Fire burning east of Sacramento will likely
move into the Central Valley once again later tonight as easterly
drainage winds develop.

Strong high pressure will maintain its grip across the region
continuing hot weather for the interior of NorCal over the next
several days. A modest Delta Breeze is expected to redevelop this
evening, but with the marine layer still shallow and ragged off
the coast, it will likely only shave a few degrees off high
temperatures in the Delta and south valley the next couple of days.

Satellite imagery shows mid and upper-level moisture increasing
over SoCal and offshore. This moisture is forecast to work its way
northward during the next few days leading to an increase in
cloudiness across the region and an increasing threat of showers
and thunderstorms over the northern Sierra. Storms are expected to
be mainly south of Lake Tahoe on Sunday, then spread further north
on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)...
Stability progs show slight instability with some monsoonal
moisture over the Sierra cascade range and over the Shasta county
northern mountains on Wednesday as a small scale upper trough
clips the northwest portions of California. Upper flow transitions
to more southwest by Thursday so the afternoon and evening
thunderstorm threat will most likely shift to the north and east
of the forecast area. Southwest flow aloft should move any
thunderstorm threat to the north and east of the CWA Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.Updated Aviation...
VFR conditions with generally light winds the next 24 hours.
Downsloping winds tonight will likely bring some localized IFR smoke
into southern Sac and northern San Joaquin Valleys after midnight.
Near the Delta, SW winds 10-18 kt continue.   JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$






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