Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 251450
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
750 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY SUNDAY EVENING. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND CLIMBING TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE
VALLEY RETURNS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAINTAINING RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
WARMUP STARTS NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND
RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH. NO UPDATES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER NORCAL BRINGING FAIR
SKIES THIS MORNING. A MODERATE DELTA BREEZE CONTINUES BUT FORT ORD
PROFILER INDICATING MARINE LAYER AT LESS THAN 1000 FEET SO ANT
COASTAL STRATUS INTRUSION INTO THE DELTA WILL BE MINIMAL. OVERALL
AIRMASS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM FRIDAY SO SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND NOW BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BRINGING A SLIGHT THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHERN
SHASTA COUNTY. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN..SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CREATING A MODERATE NORTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID RANGE MODELS
INDICATE ABOUT AN 8 TO 10 MB SURFACE GRADIENT FROM SAC TO MFR. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. OVERALL...BREEZY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THESE DRYING
NORTH WINDS WILL BRING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DROP IN HUMIDITY FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH NOT SUPER
CRITICAL... FIRE DANGER WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED COMPARED TO
THE FAIRLY MODERATE CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK. MEANWHILE...UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A SMALL WARM
UP MONDAY AND THEN SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP 100 MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK ON THE WAY TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK WHICH WILL CAUSE A NOTABLE WARMING TREND AS DRY
WEATHER PERSISTS. MOST OF THE VALLEY WILL RETURN TO TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS
WILL MEASURE 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CEO/JBB


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CONT NEXT 24 HOURS EXC LCL MVFR CONDS IN FU/HZ
VCNTY WILDFIRES NRN SIERNEV AND LAKE BERRYESSA. SWLY WINDS 15-25 KTS
CONT THRU CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA, OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10 KTS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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