Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 031206
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
406 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system passes through today and tonight with light snowfall
down to 2000 feet. Then an extended period of dry weather through
the weekend and well into next week except for slight chance of
light showers far north Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge axis along the west coast this morning with some mid
level cloudiness spilling over into the north zones. Clearer skies
to the south has allowed for some light fog in the central valley.
Frontal band now along 130 west will push into northern
California this afternoon then on through the north state tonight.
Blended TPW image shows moisture feed with this system at over an
inch TPW but this system will weaken considerably as it rides over
the west coast ridge. Therefore...not expecting a considerable
amount of precipitation out of this system. Current snow levels
based on surface observations about 2000 to 2500 feet over the
Shasta county mountains but generally above 3000 feet elsewhere.
Models in general agreement that this cold air will remain trapped
over the Shasta area through today and this evening despite
overall warmer airmass. Will therefore leave winter weather
advisory now in place and wait to see if this colder air mixes out
later today. The upper level disturbance shifts east of the Sierra
by Thursday morning and any lingering showers should end by about
daybreak. After that...upper ridge rebuilds over the west coast
for what could be an extended period of dry weather and above
normal temperatures most areas. Another Pacific storm system
approaches the coast Friday night but is mainly forced northward
by the west coast ridge leaving just a small threat of showers
across the northern mountains on Saturday.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

Large ridge domination continues into mid next week. Unseasonably
warm weather expected with temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal with some potential record highs for early February.
Jason
&&

.AVIATION...

Mid clouds northward of I-80 with patchy IFR fog from Sac area
southward. Another system arrives later today with areas of MVFR
cigs and precip this afternoon. Generally light winds expected.
JClapp


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight PST tonight
for Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County.

&&

$$


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