Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 181053
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
353 AM PDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak storms expected into Thursday. Dry and warmer
weather late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Cloudy skies continue across the region early this morning while
much of the shower activity is over the southern 2/3rds of the
forecast area as the front continues moving slowly southward.
Current temperatures are pretty similar to yesterday`s with mainly
30s and 40s in the mountains with lower to mid 50s elsewhere.

Precip associated with the front is forecast to diminish this
morning as the front works its way further to the south.
Thunderstorm potential this afternoon is not looking as favorable
as it did 24 hours ago as it appears the main short-wave will move
onshore further to the south today. However, may see enough
clearing across the Sacramento Valley for a few storms to pop late
in the day along the western edge where upvalley flow intersects
terrain, and then spread eastward into early evening. We`ll
continue to monitor.

Otherwise, snow levels lower to around 6-7K feet today with some
light accumulation possible through the passes before
precipitation ends by this evening.

Mainly dry weather expected Wednesday, though models suggest some
light precip spreading into NW portions of the forecast area
Wednesday afternoon. Precip becomes more widespread over Interior
NorCal Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the next system
moves through. Shower potential on Thursday decreases by the
afternoon as subsidence increases from the west, then a longer
period of dry and milder weather commences Friday.

$$

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)
Latest model runs continue to be consistent with placing an upper
level ridge of high pressure across northern California for this
coming weekend. The stable atmosphere will allow for temperatures
to warm up to near or slightly above normal conditions. The main
uncertainty remains as to the whether or not the upper level
disturbance will create enough instability over the northern
mountains to bring some light precipitation for Sunday night into
Monday morning.

Although confidence is low at this point, the next weather making
system may affect northern California starting Monday night into
next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Rain and mountain snow continue through Tuesday. Mainly VFR/MVFR
conditions expected across the Valley with periods of IFR.
IFR/LIFR conditions over the mountains. South winds will increase
this afternoon with isolated gusts up to 20 kts for the northern
Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$



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