Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 181605
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
905 AM PDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure will provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures
for the rest of the weekend. Weak weather system will provide
precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Warmer Temperatures today under high pressure ahead of a trough
out over the pacific. Highs should warm to the upper 70s and lower
80s in the valley to the 50`s and 60`s for the mountains. Little
change in the weather is expected through the weekend under mostly
sunny skies.

A very weak weather system will move into the region on Monday
and Monday night. The system may bring a third of an inch or less
for the mountains and less than that for the valley. The system
will exit the region late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Breezy
conditions can be expected as the system moves through. Snow
accumulation will be minimal but the higher elevations near pass
level may be able to get a little bit.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Extended models showing greater differences beyond Tuesday.
EC/GEM gradually increase heights through the remainder of the
week while the GFS keeps westerlies farther south into far
northern CA Wed/Thu. GFS also entrains remnant moisture from T.S.
Ana into the polar jet during this time and generates some light
QPF over the Coastal range and Shasta county late Wed through Sat.
EC keeps the track farther north. With ADJMRA/CONs data showing
some POPs, will hold onto a slight chance over the northwestern
mountains of Interior NorCal during that period for now.
Temperatures expected to trend up over the latter part of next,
returning to near or slightly above normal by next Friday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours. Light northerly surface
winds today and TAF sites should be less than 8 kts.  JBB

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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