Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 301613
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
913 AM PDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.Synopsis...
Warm and fairly dry weather will continue today. Weak weather systems
may bring a few intermittent showers to the mountains Tuesday and
Wednesday along with cooler temperatures. Another chance of
precipitation will be possible next weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
A mild start to the day today, with temperatures running 3 to 6degrees
warmer for the Delta, the southern and central Sacramento Valley.
Oroville was 64 degrees at 9 am. Downtown Sacramento had reached
62 degrees as of 9:00 am. As previously mentioned, some daily
record high temperatures could fall. Mostly sunny skies will
continue through the day, with light winds. No update needed.

Cooler weather arrives on Tuesday as a weak wave brushes to the north.
Highs will be much cooler than for today, or seen in recent days,
dropping 8 to 12 degrees. They will still be above normal levels,
though. While most of the dynamics will remain to the north, some
lilght rain could reach the northern mountains. EK

.Previous Discussion...

Clear skies across most of the region early this morning except
for areas of high clouds beginning to move across the northwest
corner of the state. Conditions are pretty similar to those of 24
hours ago with generally light winds and temperatures mainly in
the 30s and 40s in the mountain valleys and upper 40s to mid 50s
in the Central Valley.

One more day of record/near record warmth expected across the
interior of NorCal today. The upper ridge axis will begin to move
inland into the Rockies over the next 24 hours as a short-wave
trough approaches the PacNW. The warm airmass will remain over the
region today and more records will be in jeopardy. Below are the
record temperatures for today with the current forecast highs.

City Forecast High Record High

Redding AP8286 (2002)
Red Bluff AP8288 (2002)
Downtown Sac8486 (1966)
Sac Exec AP8283 (2001)
Stockton AP8482 (1966)
Modesto AP8584 (1968)

Significant cooling on the order of 10-15 degrees is expected
across the region Tuesday as the system moves into the PacNW. Most
of the region will remain dry, but the northern mountains may see
a few showers. Breezy northerly winds develop through the Central
Valley by the afternoon.

A weak trough is forecast to linger over the region Wednesday,
then another short-wave is forecast to clip the area late
Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing another chance for a few
showers to the northern mountains and northern Sierra. Weak high
pressure returns for Thursday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

High pressure remains in place Friday and could result in
continued breezy north to northeast winds. Longer range models
are hinting at a transition to a cooler and unsettled pattern
this weekend and early next week. The ECMWF and GFS both show
decent spread in their ensembles, but all are suggesting a colder
and wetter system setting up for the west. The ECMWF and GEM are
in pretty good agreement with trough placement just offshore late
in the period, while the GFS`s trough is farther east. Right now,
we favored the ECMWF and GEM solution and increased precip chances
late in the period, especially next Monday night into Tuesday.
JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Generally light
winds this morning, increase from S to SW this afternoon. Next
system may bring light showers to northern mtns tonight into Tue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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