Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 300509
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1009 PM PDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warm weather to continue through at least mid-week.

&&

.Discussion...

Upper high continues over California. Trough moving through the
Pacific Northwest has turned the mid/upper flow to
westerly...which is spreading high/mid level clouds over the
area. Dry and warm conditions will continue over the weekend.
Only a weak delta breeze this evening with temperatures slow to
cool. Current forecast is on track and no evening update will be
needed.

.Previous Discussion...
Moisture from T.S. Marie continues to spread into Norcal as the
storm itself continues to head NWwd out to sea over the Pacific. The
moisture has worked its way Nwd on the W side of strong high
pressure which is centered W of Baja/Socal...and then turns Ewd
around the Nrn periphery of the anticyclone and in advance of the
approaching Ern Pac/W coast trof. Max temps in the CWA this
afternoon were running some 5 to 12 degrees cooler due to synoptic
cooling from the approaching trof/weakening ridge and the cloud
cover from Marie.

Moisture from Marie will eventually get shunted SEwd in our CWA as
the Ern Pac trof moves inland later tonite and Sat. Even though
synoptic cooling will continue on Sat...max temps will be warmer
over the Srn portion of the CWA...roughly I-80 Swd...as this area
was under thick high cloud cover for most of today and less
cloudiness/more sunshine is expected on Sat. Max temps on Sat should
near the dry adiabatic warming from 850 mbs mark in the valley.

Weak short-wave embedded within the trof is forecast to move across
the CA/OR border Sat afternoon preceded by some high cloudiness...
but not as extensive as today. In the wake of this feature...the
Ern Pac ridge will build over the region for a warmup Sun/Mon. Nly
winds from the pressure rises over the Pac NW will result in
adiabatic warming effects...and by Mon (Labor Day)...triple digit
max temps are expected to return to the Nrn Sac Vly and mid-upper
90s elsewhere in the valley...and 80s to low 90s mountains.   JHM

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Increasing troughing aloft with lowering heights through the
extended forecast period will result in a cooling trend with
strengthening onshore flow. Temperatures go from several degrees
above normal Tuesday to near or slightly below normal by Friday.
Significant model differences exist with synoptic pattern and potential
development of a closed upper low off the Northern California
coast near the end of the week.

&&

.Aviation...

Incrg Wly flow alf as upr rdg movs E and upr trof in EPAC movs
onshr. VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with mid to high lvl
clds fm T.S. Marie dcrsg fm N to S ovngt into Sat. Isold SWly sfc
wnd gsts to 25 kts poss ovr hyr trrn this aftn into eve and thru
Delta tngt.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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