Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 242213
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
313 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.Synopsis...
A weather system will drop down from the north on Monday bringing
a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to the northern
Sierra and Lassen Park area, otherwise the remainder of interior
NorCal will continue to see mild temperatures. High pressure
rebuilds through the remainder of the week for a warming trend.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (This evening through Wednesday night)...
Fair skies across the interior of NorCal this afternoon under
northwesterly flow aloft. Some flat cumulus development is taking
place over the mountains. Temperatures are similar to those of 24
hours ago and range from the 70s in the mountains to the 80s to
lower 90s in the foothills and valley.

Satellite and radar imagery showing quite a bit of deep convection
occurring to our north over the PacNW as the next system drops
down from the north. This system is forecast to drop south into
the Great Basin on Monday and may be close enough for a few
showers and thunderstorms to develop in the northern Sierra and Mt
Lassen area. It will also help to keep temperatures moderate into
early week.

Strong high pressure over the eastern Pacific is then forecast to
rebuild across the region on Tuesday into mid-week resulting in a
warm-up for interior NorCal.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)
Upper level high pressure ridge over the western CONUS will
dominate the pattern Thursday. Daytime highs should top out a few
degrees above normal under fair skies and generally light winds.
The upper ridge axis shifts over the Great Basin on Friday. All
models indicate some form of troughing move over the West Coast
and western Great Basin over the weekend with some overall cooling
and increased onshore flow. Models indicate a trough deep enough
to bring a slight chance of light precip to the northern mountains
Saturday. The GFS brings in more extratropical moisture into
northern CA from now Hurricane Marie, while the ECMWF has less
moisture. JClapp

&&

.Aviation...
NW flow aloft over NorCal with VFR conditions next 24 hrs except
potential Stratus MVFR/IFR ceiling west of I-680 and Cordelia til
around 18z Monday. Locally S to SW SFC-010 gusty winds over higher
mountain terrain and thru Delta this aftn into eve and again Sun
aftn. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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