Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 241618
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
918 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with a gradual warming trend through the week. Triple digit
heat expected in the Central Valley with high temperatures well
above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The marine layer remains shallow and under 1000 feet deep but
stratus is more widespread along the immediate coast this
morning. The air flow will reverse direction today but inland
areas will remain hot and generally between 100 and 107. There
may be some slight cooling for the delta and areas adjacent to
the delta today. This evening and overnight the delta breeze looks
to become moderate to strong and there should be a decent amount
of stratus returning to the Bay Area. That should help to reduce
temperatures slightly for Monday for many areas.

Tuesday and Wednesday is when the high pressure from the
southwest begins to build over our area and temperatures will
likely range from 103 to 111 degrees throughout the valley. The
hottest temperatures will be over the Northern Sacramento valley.
&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Strong high pressure over the western U.S. for above normal
temperatures through the end of the week. The warmest days look
to be Thursday and Friday when high temperatures are forecast to
reach to between 5 and 10 degrees above season normals. This puts
daytime highs in the Redding area at around 110 degrees. Very low
humidity will exist during this time as well with afternoon
minimum RH values mainly in the teens to single digits. Although
this will increase fire danger, at least winds should be generally
light under the ridge. Models hint at a weak trough or low forming
off the coast around Friday. GFS puts this low close enough to the
coast to start drawing monsoon moisture northward up the Sierra
and into the northern mountains painting precipitation over the
mountains Friday afternoon and evening. ECMWF and GEM models have
different solutions however keeping any precipitation south and
east of the CWA. Will go with drier majority as GFS seems to be an
outlier for now. Troughing along the west coast brings a slight
cooling trend next Saturday with increased onshore flow and cooler
airmass bringing more cooling next Sunday. If models persist with
this track then daytime highs could be back down to year normal by
the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Winds generally below 15 knots
except gusts to 30 knots in the delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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