Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 252157
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
257 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather continues this week. Temperatures will be near or a
little above normal during the work week...followed by a cooling
trend over the weekend. Scattered showers are possible over the
far northern portion of the state this weekend.

&&

.Discussion...

Temperatures over most of the CWA trending just a little warmer
today than yesterday. SWly flow aloft and onshore gradients will
keep a Delta Breeze blowing providing some ameliorating influence
through the Carquinez Strait. But...little cooling effect is
expected farther away from the Delta as the Ft Ord Profiler
indicates the marine layer is roughly 1500 ft or so...a little
shallower than yesterday. The warm wx will continue until the end
of the work week with max temps continuing to run a few degrees
above normal.

SWly flow aloft will prevail over Norcal for the next several days
with strong high pressure over the Desert SW/4-Corners area and low
pressure centered off the B.C. coast. A short wave is forecast to
move across Socal today with a weakening cluster of storms.
Yesterday it looked as if we may experience abundant high
cloudiness overspreading the Srn portion of the CWA...but the
latest model RH trend suggests less cloud cover...with the Nrn
extent of the high cloudiness spreading primarily over the SErn
zones tonite.

High cloudiness will decrease on Wed with similar wx conditions to
today. This will be followed by an increase in subtropical moisture
on Thu. The NAM model elevated instability and layer column max REF
suggests enough instability near the Siernev Crest south of Tahoe
for perhaps an isolated TRW during the Thu afternoon/evening time
frame. The SWly flow will quickly push any storms off the Crest
and E of the Crest and our CWA.

Low pressure off the B.C. coast will dig W of 130W on Fri and will
begin to strengthen SW flow over Norcal. Any precip chances should
hold off in our CWA during the day...but onshore flow will begin
to cool temps in the Nrn portion of the CWA to near normal while
the Srn portion of the CWA will continue to run above normal for
one more day. We prefer the slower timing of the effects of this
digging/developing trof due to the strong Desert SW/4-Corners
ridge. The initial wave of energy is still progged to rotate
inland and affect our CWA late Fri and Sat.  JHM


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

THINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR A NICE LITTLE COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND.
WE SHOULD SEE NEARLY A 10 DEGREE COOL DOWN FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HAVE RAISED POPS A
BIT IN THE FAR NORTH...BUT WE PROBABLY COULD GO EVEN HIGHER IN THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST. AFTER THIS WEEKEND...THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN A
BIT THEN LATER NEXT WEEK DOES EVEN DEEPEN A BIT. END RESULT IS
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW BUT MAINLY DRY. RASCH


&&

.AVIATION...

SWly flow alf with upr high ovr 4 crnrs and upr trof/low ofshr.
VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs exc isold MVFR poss vcnty Wrn
Delta in ST btwn 06z-17z. Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25 kts poss ovr
hyr mtn trrn btwn til 03z and up to 30 kts thru Delta ovngt.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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