Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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743
FXUS66 KSTO 280952
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
252 AM PDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming temperatures for the rest of the holiday weekend followed
by a cooldown Tuesday. Isolated afternoon showers or
thunderstorms possible over the mountains into mid-week.

&&

.Discussion...
Warming trend continues into Memorial Day as ridging remains in
place. Temperatures should warm some 4 to 7 degrees today from
Saturday`s high with another few degrees of warming on Monday.
Majority of the area will remain dry. Much like yesterday, could
see a few showers and thunderstorms pop up over the mountains in
the afternoon and evening hours, but not expecting widespread
activity.

Ridging will shift east later Monday into Tuesday in advance of
trough approaching the West Coast that will move across the area
by mid-week. The chance for showers and thunderstorms continues
over the mountains, but again not expecting anything widespread as
forcing remains weak. As onshore flow increases, cooling trend
will begin and the Delta Breeze will pick back up with gusts to
35-40 mph across Solano County and much cooler temperatures there.
Elsewhere, temperatures will drop back down into the 80s in the
Valley and 60s-70s in the mountains.

CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Current long term forecast package now looks dry with high
pressure over the southwest U.S now looking strong enough to keep
any precipitation threat out of the forecast area. Latest model
runs show the shortwave trough forecast to push into the Pacific
northwest Thursday should be too far north to bring significant
threat of precipitation to Shasta county. Airmass warming will
bring daytime highs up to several degrees above normal. Models
diverge a bit by the end of the week with GFS/GEM showing more
ridging over the west coast while ECMWF puts a low along the
Pacific Northwest coast. Either way, forecast remains dry with a
bit more warming. Over the weekend...southerly flow aloft bringing
a hint of afternoon or evening showers to the northern Sierra. At
this time any shower threat looks like it will stay on the east
side of the Sierra so have kept showers out of the Sierra forecast
for now but will need to continue to monitor subsequent model
runs. Overall high temperatures should remain fairly flat through
the weekend at about 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Winds generally 10 kts or
less for TAF sites with gusts to around 30 knots in vicinity of
the Delta.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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