Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 200547
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
947 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2014

.Synopsis...
A series of weather systems will move through NorCal into Saturday
bringing periods of precipitation. The last system is expected to
be the wettest Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds
over the area next week for generally dry weather and milder
daytime temperatures along with areas of morning valley fog.

&&

.Discussion...
The first system is moving out of the region but in its wake we
are left with a lot of low clouds, some patches of drizzle and
fog. Ahead of the system a weak wave will move through overnight
that may help to keep some patches of drizzle going on and off
throughout most of the night.

Another weak system will move through the interior on Thursday
with the best chances for areas near I-80 southward occurring late
in the morning and in the afternoon. Snow levels look lower with
this system. This system may be able to bring several inches of
snow below major pass levels in the Sierra. Precipitation amounts
with this system will be light once again.

The third system in this series of storms will move into the
region late on Friday and Friday night. This system looks like it
will be the wettest of the three, bringing breezy conditions to
the valley and windy conditions over the crest. Snow levels
unfortunately look very high with this system throughout most of
it.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

After the three wx systems that affect Norcal from Wed-Sat...
drier wx is expected as the Ern Pac upper level ridge rebuilds
along the west coast. As the storm track lifts N of our area...
Nly winds will preclude widespread fog on Sun...but patchy dense fog
is possible in the Srn Sac and Nrn San Jqn Valley Mon-Wed mornings
as the pressure gradients weaken...and as surface winds gradually
turn Sly/Sely on the W side of the surface high over the Great
Basin. Max temps will gradually warm through the period as the
high builds/amplifies over the region and will be a few to several
degrees above normal for most of the period.

Big model differences near the end of the EFP lead to a high degree
of uncertainty...and for now we maintained the presence/effect of
the ridge on interior Norcal wx.   JHM

&&

.Aviation...

Frontal precip will be winding down over interior Norcal this
evening with areas MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys of mostly -dz/BR. The
Sierra will remain obscured in clouds and light precipitation
overnight.

Second wx system will spread precip into interior Norcal after 15Z
Thu and spreading SEwd into the I-80 corridor after 18Z Thu.
Widespread MVFR/local IFR cigs/vsbys spreading over rtes.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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