Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 290425
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
925 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS. INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THIS EVENING THAN LAST
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO THE 60S TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEY WITH WARMER THERMAL BELT AREAS ONLY COOLING OFF
INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREES RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD STRONGER OVER THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN STORE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE NORTH END OF THE VALLEY PEAKING OUT AROUND 112 WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND SACRAMENTO REGION PEAKING OUT AROUND 107 ON
WEDNESDAY.

WE SHOULD GET A MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A RETURN OF SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS TO THE BAY TO HELP
COOL THE SACRAMENTO REGION DOWN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.
LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BUT LOOK TO BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. NOT SURE WE WILL COOL THAT MUCH AT
ALL SINCE IT IS QUESTIONABLE ON THE AMOUNT OF COASTAL STATUS THAT
MAY BE AROUND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM AND DO TOP OUT ON
THURSDAY.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND THAT
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES DEPENDING UPON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS THAT COME OUR WAY AND THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE VALLEY. IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE AND THE SIERRA NEVADA ON FRIDAY.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

RIDGING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS
COOLING A FEW DEGREES FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH LOW TO MID 90S IN
CENTRAL VALLEY AND NEAR 100 ACROSS NORTHERN SAC VALLEY. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH THE CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE
EXTENDED. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MOST BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WHILE ECMWF SHUNTS THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS
POINT, WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS A BIT IN QUESTION SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM TSTORMS ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS INTO EARLY WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FURTHER REFINED
ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS MODELS BETTER RESOLVE
INCREASING MOISTURE. CEO


&&

.AVIATION...

BLDG HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDS OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC LCL
MVFR VSBY POSS VCNTY OF FIRES (LOWELL, WRAGG). LCL GSTY N-E SFC
WND POSS OVR NRN AND ERN FTHLS/MTNS TNGT INTO WED MRNG.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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