Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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502
FXUS66 KSTO 271107
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
407 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Daytime highs will remain well above normal through Friday with
little relief overnight. Cooler this weekend with isolated
thunderstorms possible over the higher Sierra.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Once again, not much change to the forecast as we continue in this
heat wave. Valley highs will persist in the range of 103 to 113
today and Thursday as high pressure is at peak strength on these
days. Some locations have forecast highs near records so it`s
possible we could see max temperature records tied or broken. For
reference, here are 5 sites with the Wednesday and Thursday
records...

Redding Airport:
July 27 record 113 in 2009
July 28 record 113 in 2003

Red Bluff:
July 27 record 112 in 2009
July 28 record 111 in 2003

Downtown Sacramento:
July 27 record 108 in 1980
July 28 record 107 in 1954

Stockton:
July 27 record 109 in 1980
July 28 record 108 in 1954

Modesto:
July 27 record 107 in 1933
July 28 record 108 in 1954

Besides the heat wave, our area will likely still see hazy
conditions from the Soberanes Wildfire smoke streaming across the
valley towards the Sierra. In addition, there continues to be the
possibility of isolated thunderstorms near the Sierra crest (and
eastward) as monsoonal moisture moves northward towards the Tahoe
region on Thursday into Saturday.

The delta breeze should be stronger Wednesday night and Thursday
night and may help the delta to cool slightly the following days.
By Friday night, we expect a stronger delta breeze along with
synoptic cooling which will start a more noticeable downward
trend in daytime highs for Saturday across our entire CWA.
JBB

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

High pressure will finally weaken over the region as a series of
upper level troughs swing through the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures will retreat back to near-normal levels accordingly,
with forecast highs through the extended period in the 90s to near
100 degrees across the Valley.

There may be enough residual monsoonal moisture for afternoon
mountain convection on Sunday. The upper level pattern would favor
thunderstorms just outside of our forecast area however.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions across all TAF sites for the next 24 hours. Haze
possible in areas due to smoke from the Soberanes Fire, but smoke
itself will remain elevated. Winds below 10kts with some gusts up
to 20 kts in the Delta region.

NOO/Dang

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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