Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 222305
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
405 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued warm and dry except for isolated showers and
thunderstorms into this evening. The thunderstorm threat
diminishes for remainder of the work week. A subtle warm up
expected Wednesday and Thursday, but still around seasonal
averages.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Tonight through Thursday)...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still developing this
afternoon over and east of the Sierra and may continue into early
evening. Most activity is near the crest and is close to Lassen
Park and Tahoe southward. Otherwise most development east of crest
is northward of Tahoe near the CA/NV border. The light steering
winds are allowing the cells linger and drop some decent rain
amounts. Swain Mtn RAWS just east of Lassen Park near the
Lassen/Plumas county border measured 0.97 over the last 2 hours
and is very slowly drifting eastward into Lassen county. These are
quick pulse storms, but little movement allows for reformation
over similar areas, so some areas may receive some heavier rain
amounts. Temperatures will rebound a bit into Wednesday and
Thursday, but still remain near to just below normal for late
August.           JClapp

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
Model forecasts generally agree to a trough pattern over the west
starting on Friday, but the specific placement and amplitude of
the upper level flow are not in alignment. As a result,
uncertainty exists as to the thunderstorm potential over the
Sierra for Friday afternoon and evening. The best chance for
thunderstorms will be in the higher elevations of Alpine and
Tuolumne counties.

Models depict the trough pattern to remain over the forecast area
into the weekend, which will keep near normal temperatures across
the forecast area. Expecting upper 80s and low 90s in the southern
Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys, and 70s/80s in the foothills
and upper elevations.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the terminals during the next 24
hours. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected along the
Sierra again this afternoon and evening, with convective activity
tapering off by late evening. Wind gusts as high as 20 kts through
the valley expected, with gusts as high as 35 kts in the delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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