Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 192242
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
342 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Synopsis...
Lingering Sierra showers/t-storms are possible through the
weekend, otherwise, dry & warmer temperatures into early next
week. Cooler and wetter weather arrives middle of next week into
next weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper low is near the coast between San Francisco and San Diego.
Surface winds have turned westerly over NorCal with ground level
smoke pushing east. Elevated smoke plume is moving northwest which
is the mid-level wind direction around the upper low. This pattern
will keep hazey conditions over the Sacramento/San Joaquin valleys
through much of the weekend. Have seen a few cloud build-ups along
the crest south of Pacific House and have left slight thunderstorm
chance for that area late this afternoon/evening. Surface winds
will turn down-slope overnight over the Sierra including the Kings
fire location.

Upper low will continue just off the SoCal Tomorrow. Moisture
wrapping around the low over the Sierra will lead to thunderstorm
chances along the crest south of Tahoe. Temperatures will be near
normal for South and Central areas...but 5 degrees above northern
Sac valley Redding area.

Upper low will lift northeast into Nevada Sunday with continuing
slight thunderstorm chances over the Sierra. Temperatures will be
near normal. Smoke may drift west into valleys briefly Sunday
morning...but increasing westerly flow will push smoke east by
mid day.

Increasing westerly flow on Monday with dry conditions and near
normal temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Models in good agreement that a stronger trough will impact the
region in the extended forecast. Tuesday should remain dry but
temperatures will be near to slightly below normal as the trough
approaches. By Wednesday, temperatures will drop well below
normal, especially over higher terrain. In addition, the chance
for showers will start impacting the NorCal coastline by early
Wednesday. Showers should spread over the Coastal range into the
Sacramento valley late Wednesday morning. The chance of showers
will continue to spread eastward and southward encompassing the
majority of our CWA Thursday and Friday as cooler temperatures
persist.  JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions the next 24 hours all TAF sites. Isolated Sierra
crest thunderstorms south of Tahoe. Winds mainly north to east
generally below 15 knots.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







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