230
FXUS64 KTSA 022309
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
609 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

   - Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms through
     the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall, downburst winds, and
     lightning will be the primary hazards.

   - Humid conditions will return by the end of this week with
     heat indices reaching 95-100 F across the area by Saturday
     and continuing through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Mid-level moisture has increased across OK, topping the north-
south ridge axis aloft that is centered over east TX. Some high-
based showers and storms, with highest concentration near or just
north of the I-40 corridor, have been spreading into east-central
OK this afternoon. The eastward extent of the better rain/storm
chances into the NWS Tulsa CWA is pretty uncertain, as CAMs show
the activity decreasing in coverage by the end of the day. This
may be due to influence from nearby ridge axis aloft. Regardless,
severe weather potential will be very low with this higher-based
activity.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening and Tonight)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Light showers continue to move across portions of eastern Oklahoma
late this afternoon partially in response to a weak vort max
across the area. Heavier showers and an occasional thunderstorm
continues to the west from central OK into the TX South Plains.
The heavier activity marks a deeper flow of moisture emanating
from the tropical east Pacific with more embedded disturbances
working north across the larger part of west Texas. Some of this
activity may persist early in the first period across far western
portions of the CWA so held onto some light PoPs there before
expanding low-medium (20-40%) chances back across primarily
eastern OK through Thu morning within a persistent warm/moist
advection pattern. Cloud cover and increasing dewpoints will help
maintain muggy conditions overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Low level moisture continues to increase on Thursday as a surface
ridge moves east into TN. Slightly deeper forcing and surface
convergence will aid in an increase in shower and storm coverage
through the daytime hours. The activity is expected to spread into
western AR late in the day before diminishing with loss of
heating. Increased cloud cover through the day will help keep air
temperatures below normal once again though humidity values will
increase the discomfort level.

A shortwave trough moves into the Plains on Friday and north of
the area by Saturday. Deep layer forcing associated with the wave
will help rain chances continue through this time period with
highest chances (30-40%) targeted for northeast OK generally north
of I-44. Precipitable water value are forecast to steadily
increase Friday into the weekend with values in excess of 2"
forecast increasing the threat of locally heavy downpours with any
activity that can form into clusters. The increased moisture will
keep low to medium rain chances across the remainder of the CWA
during the daytime with lesser chances overnight. We did maintain
low (~20%) storm chances west of US 75 during the evening on the
4th of July as some guidance holds onto a convective signal though
coverage is expected to remain limited with heights yet to fall
due to the approaching trough.

Temperatures gradually warm through the remainder of the forecast
as the upper level ridge reestablishes itself over NM. Heat index
values climb to near 100 by Sunday and stay through mid week
primarily due to overnight and early morning convective debris
clouds within a more northwest flow pattern. Low to medium PoPs
remain in the forecast through next Wednesday with localized
downpours likely due to the abnormally high moisture values.
Outside of wet microburst winds, locally intense rainfall and
lightning, the severe weather threat will remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail, with a possible exception of some
light MVFR fog over in NW AR around daybreak. Storm chances
increase on Thursday, with prob30 mentions included in the more
favorable time windows at the E OK and KFSM sites. In the low
chance that a storm hits a terminal directly, vsbys would likely
drop below VFR for a time. Confidence/coverage of storms not
expected to be great enough to include far NW AR sites at this
time.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  88  71  88 /  10  40  10  30
FSM   72  91  73  92 /  10  30  10  20
MLC   72  87  71  88 /  20  50  20  30
BVO   67  88  68  88 /   0  30  10  30
FYV   67  88  68  90 /   0  30  10  20
BYV   66  90  68  90 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   71  86  71  87 /  10  40  20  30
MIO   67  88  69  89 /   0  20  10  20
F10   71  85  71  86 /  20  50  20  30
HHW   73  88  72  88 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...30