Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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884
FXUS64 KTSA 300103
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
803 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated convection should begin to die off soon as sunset
approaches. Current observational data and short term hi-res model
data doesn`t show an MCS signal for the overnight hours tonight.
Have updated pops to go dry from mid evening on. I did leave the
slight chance pops after midnight with the HRRRX developing some
high based showers or storms across NE OK toward 12z. Updated
products sent.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 609 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms across the area will diminish early in the
TAF period. Additional development across Kansas later tonight may
impact KBVO...so will keep a prob30 at that site. Otherwise...VFR
conditions are expected...and thunderstorm coverage will remain
too low for TAF inclusion at the remaining sites for this period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 306 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have been persistent across Carroll
county in far northwest Arkansas along a weak frontal boundary
that extends from southwest Missouri into northwest Arkansas.
This activity will more than likely continue into the evening hours
before dissipating this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Thunderstorms currently developing over northeastern Kansas may
make a run at northwest Arkansas later tonight as well.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday evening into
Friday as a more significant mid-level shortwave embedded in the eroding
northwesterly flow aloft affects the region. The best chances of showers
and thunderstorms will be north of Interstate 40 with the heaviest rainfall
totals expected north of Interstate 44. This area of heaviest rain will be
north of a nearly stationary surface boundary across southeast Oklahoma
and a cold front advancing into southeast Kansas. 1 to 3 inches of rain
rain will be possible in this zone with locally higher amounts. Marginally
severe weather will also be possible with strong gusty winds.

After something of a lull on Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms
will increase on Saturday night into Monday as a mid-level shortwave moves
out of the southwest United States and across the plains. Dry weather
returns the middle of next week as a weak mid level ridge builds over
the region.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  93  72  87 /  20  30  60  40
FSM   72  95  73  91 /  20  30  30  40
MLC   71  93  71  91 /  10  10  30  20
BVO   70  92  69  84 /  20  50  70  50
FYV   68  88  69  84 /  20  30  50  50
BYV   68  88  69  84 /  20  30  40  50
MKO   71  92  72  88 /  20  30  50  30
MIO   69  91  69  83 /  20  40  70  50
F10   72  93  72  88 /  10  10  50  20
HHW   71  94  72  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....30



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