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000
FXUS64 KTSA 260904
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
404 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Deep meridional flow in the mid/upper levels this morning, with
synoptic cold front pushing through north central OK, and an
outflow boundary located just east of U.S. Highway 69 in eastern
OK. As expected, the main upper level forcing has shifted well
north at present across the upper Midwest and while plume of
anomalously high moisture extends across much of the southern and
central plains, forcing farther south remains subtle and
difficult to pinpoint at the moment. Front is expected to make
only slow progress east over the next 24-48 hours with highest
precip chances remaining focused along/west of about U.S. Highway
75. A few spots could see significant amounts of rainfall, but a
widespread heavy rain event is not anticipated given meager
instability and rather nebulous forcing.

Cooler airmass will remain over the area late in the week with a
glancing blow of a stronger cold front keeping temps pleasant
through the weekend. ECMWF and Canadian continue to support a
return to well above normal temperatures next week as strong
ridging develops over the southern U.S. This solution appears
most likely at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  64  71  59 /  70  50  40  10
FSM   89  69  85  65 /  20  10  20  10
MLC   85  66  80  63 /  40  20  30  20
BVO   74  61  70  57 /  80  60  50  10
FYV   84  64  78  59 /  20  20  30  10
BYV   86  64  78  58 /  20  20  20  10
MKO   83  66  77  61 /  50  20  30  20
MIO   81  63  71  57 /  60  40  40  10
F10   81  64  74  59 /  60  30  40  20
HHW   88  70  86  68 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....14