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000
FXUS64 KTSA 022339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. WENT WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10