094
FXUS64 KTSA 141902
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
202 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Lingering clouds and haze (from prescribed burns or wildfires to
the north) will gradually clear out today and tonight as the
weather system that affected the area yesterday continues moving
east. High temperatures will climb into the upper 70s across
eastern OK and low to mid 70s for western AR this afternoon. With
mostly clear skies tonight and relatively low dew points
temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50s tonight. A weak
shortwave trough will begin to move into northeast OK near
daybreak Wednesday, possibly initiating a few showers or a
thunderstorm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Brief shortwave ridging should keep the area mostly dry (behind
the morning shortwave) into the afternoon Wednesday, but a deeper
trough moving into the southwest will spread diffluent
southwesterly flow over the area Wednesday evening into Thursday.
As moisture increases, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop Wednesday late afternoon and evening. As of right now, the
severe weather threat appears to be low, but a few of the storms
could produced some marginally severe wind gusts or hail. A more
likely outcome will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall
leading to some minor flash flooding. Highs on Wednesday will
reach the low to mid 80s before the precipitation moves in.

There may be a brief break in the activity Thursday during the day,
but the previously mentioned trough will then move over or near the
area Thursday afternoon into Friday. Another period of rainfall with
a few scattered thunderstorms is expected. Model guidance shows some
differences with respect to the track of the shortwave, which will
dictate whether this ends up being a minor rain event (mostly <
0.50") or a more substantial storm with the potential for 1-2+".
Ensemble cluster guidance reveals that most of the uncertainty seems
to stem from the model type, with the GEFS indicating the more
substantial rain, the EPS showing a more minimal rain, and the CMCE
mostly in the middle. At this time there is no preferred solution,
so mostly went with a middle of the road approach.

Stronger ridging builds in for the weekend with temperatures
potentially climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s by early next
week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates decent spread with
respect to how strongly the ridge will build over the area, so
there is uncertainty in just how warm we will become.
Additionally, models sometimes warm temperatures too quickly when
there is plentiful low level moisture, so it is possible guidance
could trend down with time. Regardless, this warming trend will
occur with elevated dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s, so it
will begin to feel a bit more like summer. By early next week the
upper level flow will increase as troughing once again settles
into the west, with periodic shortwaves lifting through the area.
This typically is a good setup for thunderstorms, including some
severe potential. In fact the EPS EFI is already showing a signal
for anomalously high CAPE and shear for this period, so this will
need to be watched in the days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Some lingering MVFR ceilings across NW AR should lift above VFR
levels early this afternoon, but with scattered showers persisting
at least a brief return to MVFR is possibly through the late
afternoon. Otherwise all areas will see VFR conditions until late
tonight, when patchy fog is expected to develop across NW AR. At
present the forecast will reflect MVFR conditions for a few hours
at KFYV/KROG/KXNA, though at least some potential for a reduction
to IFR is possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  85  65  80 /  10  20  60  40
FSM   57  87  64  85 /   0   0  30  20
MLC   56  87  65  82 /  10  10  40  30
BVO   51  84  63  79 /  20  20  70  50
FYV   53  84  64  82 /  10  10  40  30
BYV   55  81  62  82 /  20  10  30  40
MKO   54  84  64  82 /  10  10  60  30
MIO   54  81  62  79 /  10  10  60  50
F10   56  85  65  80 /  10  20  60  40
HHW   56  85  65  82 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14