Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 230744
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
244 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The main items of interest in the quiet short term portion of the
forecast will be temps and especially winds Today and Tuesday.
Looking toward the end of next week and into next weekend, precip
chances and frost/freeze potential will be the main forecast
issues.

The low level thermal ridge will nose east over the region today
ahead of a cold front. With the cooler low level temps not
expected to arrive until closer to 00z, there may be enough time
to warm up above consensus guidance and the forecast will lean
that way. The winds will crank up beginning this afternoon across
NE OK behind the front, and again during the day on Tuesday. Winds
aloft will increase considerably overhead as the upper jet dives
south over the region on the back side of an amplifying upper
trough over the Great Lakes and Mississippi valley. A deeply mixed
boundary layer will be optimal for momentum transfer of the
stronger winds down to the surface as wind gusts. Wind gusts may
get close to advisory criteria, especially on Tuesday.

The upper trough will move away from the region by Wednesday.
Winds will back off and downslope flow will bring a warming trend
Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next front.

A very amplified upper flow pattern will evolve toward the end of
the week, with ridging nosing up into the Yukon and Northwest
Territory, and a deep downstream trough developing over the
central CONUS. A strong Polar cold front will push thru the region
late Thursday and Thursday night, bringing the coolest air of the
season thus far. The bigger uncertainty over the past couple of
days has been rain chances with this front late in the week and
into the weekend. The trend in the 00z data was an eastward shift
to the mean trough axis, though the ECMWF remains west of the
Canadian and GFS. The Canadian and GFS are dry, with the ECMWF
still far enough west to allow for a brief period of frontogenetic
banded precip behind the front Thursday night into Friday across
the south and east. The models now all agree that the trough will
slide east by the weekend and have a dry forecast. Low temps over
the weekend will likely necessitate the first freeze headlines of
the season over portions of the region.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  46  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   76  46  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   76  46  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   74  42  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  39  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   71  44  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   74  45  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   70  44  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74  46  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   78  46  67  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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