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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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000 FXUS64 KTSA 280004 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 704 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. A cold front currently move into northeast Oklahoma will move through the area TAF sites by mid-morning Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated the front may impact the sites through Friday afternoon. MVFR ceilings will be possible behind the front late Tonight into Friday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/ DISCUSSION... Mid clouds/scattered showers persist this afternoon in association with trailing end of decaying MCS that moved through MO overnight. This has kept temperatures down 5 to 10 degrees from yesterday across much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Further south, mostly sunny skies have allowed heat indices to climb above 105 degrees in many areas. A few of the northern counties currently in the heat advisory may be able to be canceled early depending on latest cloud/precip trends. The much anticipated cold front is currently located over northwest Oklahoma, extending northeast into southeast Kansas/southern Missouri. Breaks in the clouds ahead of the front have allowed atmosphere to become moderately unstable across far northeast Oklahoma with SBCAPES around 3000 j/kg. As front slowly approaches from the north tonight scattered showers/thunderstorms will be likely across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A few storms could be strong this evening with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, but overall severe threat appears low at this time. Thunderstorms chances will continue Friday as precip sags south with the front into Friday night before finally shifting south of the Red River by Saturday morning. A cooler/drier airmass expected behind the front over the weekend through the early to middle part of next week as upper trough remains across the southeast CONUS. This will provide a much needed break from the heat with heat indices only in the upper 80s each afternoon. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066- 070>076. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ AVIATION...10
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