Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 190544
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS BETWEEN LIFR TO MVFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL LIFR TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODEL
SOUNDINS INDICATE CEILINGS TRYING TO LIFT BACK TO MVFR WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10   0
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




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