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000
FXUS64 KTSA 182311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. DATA FROM VARIOUS MODELS INDICATES THE LOW LVLS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR FOG TONIGHT...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED MENTION. THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING TO
ERN OK BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL GUST 15-20KTS AT THE NE OK SITES.
OVERALL A QUIET FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NICE SPRING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MILD CONDITIONS...LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. FIRE DANGER
THREAT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A DRY AIR-MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE.

INITIAL UPPER WAVE/JET STREAK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
EXPECT MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTH TEXAS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY MID WEEK
WITH WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A LIMITED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  50
FSM   50  75  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   46  78  54  78 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   43  72  50  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   46  73  51  74 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   50  76  55  77 /   0   0  10  40
MIO   48  78  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
F10   51  76  57  77 /   0   0  10  40
HHW   51  76  56  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30