823
FXUS63 KDDC 131936
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
236 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are chances for thunderstorms Tuesday night into
  Wednesday, especially in central Kansas and along the Oklahoma
  state line.

- The chances for significant severe weather are low for
  Wednesday, and on through the weekend and into early next week
  for that matter.

- Hot weather is expected Saturday, with highs in the lower to
  possibly mid 90s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The upper low responsible for the rains overnight will move
eastward and clearing skies are expected for this evening and
tonight. An upper level disturbance will traverse the northern
Rockies and approach the central high plains late Tuesday. A low
level jet will form across western Kansas Tuesday night as this
system approaches and will impinge on a mid level thermal
gradient along I-70. Thunderstorms will form along this 700mb
baroclinic zone after midnight and move southeastward into
central Kansas toward morning and into the mid morning hours
Wednesday. These storms will probably not be severe. Later
Wednesday as the upper disturbance approaches, the effective
frontal boundary will have been shunted southward to near the
Oklahoma state line. Thus, the best chance of heavy rainfall
will be from eastern and southern Kansas into the southern
plains, with lighter showers and a few rumbles of thunder
across southwest Kansas. The Day 3 SPC forecast has a marginal
risk of severe storms across far southwest Kansas for Wednesday
and this may end up being farther southeast. The best chance of
severe, if any, may be over the counties bordering Oklahoma
from Meade county east to Barber county, with the effective
frontal boundary marking the norther limit of severe weather. To
summarize, the best chance of substantial rains through
Wednesday will likely be in central Kansas (WaKeeney, Hays,
Larned and Stafford) Tuesday night into early Wednesday and then
Wednesday in south central Kansas (Pratt, Barber and Comanche
counties). Probabilistically, the various ensemble systems
generally indicate 30-50% chances of .5" or greater across
central Kansas (Hays and Stafford) over the Tuesday night to
Wednesday time frame, with much lower chances farther southwest
at Dodge City, Ulysses and Liberal.

Tuesday will be a warmer day with less cloud, with highs in the
80-85 range. Expect lower 70s for highs Wednesday along I-70,
with warmer 80s in the far south. If the front ends up being
farther south Wednesday due to cool outflow from morning storms,
then highs would be in the upper 70s even along the Oklahoma
state line.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Dry weather can be expected through the weekend and into early
next week in the wake of the upper level system passing
Wednesday night. Mean upper level ridging will gradually shift
from the Rockies to the plains. Plenty of sun along with south
to southwest boundary layer winds will allow for warmer
temperatures, with highs reaching the lower to possibly mid 90s
on Saturday. A weak front may knock highs down into the 80s for
Sunday and Monday. Probabilistically, the various model ensemble
means indicate 10% or less chances of .1" or more during the
Saturday to Monday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

An upper level low pressure system will slowly move off to the
east this evening. Cold temperatures at mid levels will result
in a few showers with daytime heating at KDDC/KHYS. MVFR CIGS
will persist this afternoon at KDDC and KHYS along with spotty
showers. Clearing will occur at these sites by 22-24z. North
winds at 15-18kts will gradually subside as weak surface high
pressure develops over the plains.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch