Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 212300
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Convection developing across the Front Range and a weak surface
trough over far NW KS will remain relegated to areas of northwest
Kansas later this evening. Although a general storm moving near
northern periphery of Hamilton or Scott county cannot be ruled out,
the steering flow makes it a very low probability. The surface winds
have gusted higher than the models had suggested due to deep mixing
this afternoon, allowing a spike down in most of the dew points,
which should help make the heat indices slightly more bearable
heading in the the latter part of this afternoon and evening.

Dew points tonight will spike back up to around 60 degrees again
after the mixing subsides. An approaching cold front, and a much
weaker, nearly non-existent surface pressure gradient will eliminate
much of the mixing Saturday afternoon, driving heat indices will
above 100 degrees ahead of this surface front. Heat indices may
also be enhanced by moisture pooling, and the hottest heat indices
are like to be found across south central Kansas counties, (Pratt
Medicine Lodge, Coldwater) in excess of 105 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Low shear, relatively weak bouyancy thunderstorm environment should
be developing along the surface frontal boundary  Saturday evening. The
GFS and  ECMWF models have slowed the timing of the front to as late
as near midnight. Post frontal storms may realize mid level
instability though the night into early Sunday morning, as the
surface boundary pushes southward into western Oklahoma. Broad
surface high pressure will dominate into Monday before southerly
winds become re-established by Tuesday. High temperatures will get
much closer ot normal during the latter half of the weekend and
into the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

VFR/SKC. Cumulus will dissipate and SW winds diminish after
sunset. A weaker pressure gradient will deliver less wind on
Saturday, averaging southerly at 10 kts or less. A cold front is
expected to reach a GCK-HYS line by 00z Sun. With increasing
instability, a cumulus field is expected after 18z Sat, most
pronounced across the NE zones near HYS. Included a VCTS/CB
mention at HYS starting at 21z Sat, but kept all other airports
dry through this TAF forecast cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 103  70  93 /   0  10  20  30
GCK  70 100  68  90 /   0  20  30  30
EHA  64  97  63  87 /   0  20  30  40
LBL  68 101  68  93 /   0  10  20  30
HYS  74 101  70  92 /   0  20  30  20
P28  77 105  74  97 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ031-046-065-066-081-
090.

Heat Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ064-077>080-
087>089.

Heat Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner



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