629
FXUS64 KEPZ 131124
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
524 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Generally quiet weather conditions are expected through the
period, except on Thursday as a storm system across the Southwest
brings a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the mountains.
The winds will be light to breezy except on Wednesday where they
will be breezy to low end windy ahead of the storm system. The
temperatures will be above the normal excluding Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Currently, the skies are mostly clear with just a few clouds
moving diagonally while dissipating across the Sacramento
Mountains. The winds are generally light to occasionally lightly
breezy. For today, quiet weather conditions are expected as a
ridge of high pressure builds in. There maybe some weakness in the
ridge that may aide in one or two showers mainly in the Gila
Region and Sacramento Mountains this afternoon. However,
conditions will be somewhat similar to that of yesterday. The
winds will be light to breezy and skies mostly sunny to partly
cloudy; thus, the high temperatures this afternoon will be near
the normal for this time of the year. For tonight, any showers
that develop in the mountains this afternoon should dissipate
after the sun sets. Conditions will be mainly quiet with the winds
on the light side. The skies will become mostly clear especially
after midnight. The low temperatures on Tuesday morning will be
mainly above the normal.

For the rest of the period, mostly quiet weather conditions are
expected except for the Mountains on Thursday. A shortwave trough
of low pressure will move across the area late Thursday, bringing
a chance for active weather conditions mainly to the mountains
areas. As it exits to our east Thursday night, some wrap around
energy will continue to bring additional showers to the
aforementioned area overnight Thursday and possibly in into Friday
morning. The best area that will contain instability will be in
the mountains; thus, a few thunderstorms will be likely in that
area. For the rest of the area, conditions will be mainly quiet.
Throughout the week and the weekend, the winds will be generally
light to breezy except on Wednesday where they will become breezy
to low end windy ahead of this low pressure system. The
temperatures will be above the normal for much of the period
except on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW090-SCT250. There will be periods of SKC.
The winds will be generally light and variable in direction across
most of the terminals. However, the winds will become gusty
around 17 kts at KDMN between 21 and 00Z Tuesday. The gusty winds
should decrease thereafter. There will be no reduction in the VSBY
across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Mainly quiet weather conditions are expected today similar to
that of yesterday. The winds will be light and temperatures near
the normal. Tonight recovery will be fair to good. For Tuesday,
conditions will be slightly drier than they will be today. The
20ft winds will be a carbon copy of today`s winds with the
temperatures above the normal. Tuesday night recovery will be poor
to fair. For the rest of the period, generally quiet except on
Thursday where there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in
the mountains. The winds will become breezy to low end windy on
Wednesday ahead of a storm system. The temperatures will be above
the normal on Wednesday then at and below the normal Thursday and
Friday. With that said, fire weather conditions will be mainly
elevated through the much of the period with Wednesday being
elevated to near critical.

The min RHs today will be below 15% in the lowlands and between 16
and 22% highest elevations of the mountains. The min RHs on
Tuesday will decrease by 2 to 4% from what they will be today.
The ventilation rates will be very good to excellent today then
mainly excellent on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  89  62  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            82  57  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               88  57  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               84  54  90  57 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               61  42  66  45 /  10   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    84  57  87  58 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              78  51  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   87  52  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                84  53  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       87  61  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                87  51  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             90  55  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               80  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   89  56  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             85  54  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           87  63  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            85  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    87  52  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 86  57  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                84  55  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  73  46  77  48 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                72  46  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 71  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  77  49  79  50 /  20  10  10   0
Hillsboro                82  54  86  55 /  10  10   0   0
Spaceport                84  50  88  53 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             78  46  81  48 /  10  10  10   0
Hurley                   82  49  85  50 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    84  52  87  53 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               81  52  83  53 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  80  52  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   84  52  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  84  53  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           84  53  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               79  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira