116
FXUS62 KJAX 131849
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

...TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY
MORNING...

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A messy and complex forecast through Tonight as a batch of
convection associated with a shortwave impulse rides along a
moisture/instability boundary lying near the the FL/GA state line.
Light rain and isolated embedded storms ahead of the primary wave
have already spread eastward along and north of I-10. Intensity and
coverage of thunderstorms will increase through the rest of the
afternoon along the I-75 corridor where instability will be more
supportive. In that corridor, given robust deep and lower level
shear the potential exists for isolated strong to marginally severe
storms are possible capable of strong wind gusts 40-60 mph, isolated
tornadoes and small hail. Elsewhere surface-based instability
will be at a premium and anticipate most of the precip to consist
of light/moderate stratiform rain with embedded storms through
the evening hours before activity shifts south and offshore
between 10 pm and midnight. Overnight convection will take a break
before the next round of what appears to be a more considerable
squall line pushes across the Panhandle of FL and into the
Suwannee Valley toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Active weather continues through Tuesday and Wednesday as a warm
front lifts northward, followed by a cold front moving in from the
northwest on Wednesday. Convective models are indicating an early
start to convection Tuesday, with our western most counties seeing
strong to isolated severe potential beginning just before sunrise.
Storms will sweep eastward across NE FL and SE GA through the
morning and early afternoon, with damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall being the primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be
ruled out as well. The Storm Prediction Center upgraded most of NE
FL/SE GA to a `Slight` risk (2/5) for severe weather Tuesday.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will linger through the evening, as
the front progresses southeastward overnight.

By Wednesday morning, precipitation chances will be mainly limited
to northeast Florida through sunset. Several rounds of heavy
rainfall and training thunderstorms will create a risk for
localized flooding issues, especially in urban areas and areas
with poor drainage over the next few days. Gusty southwesterly
winds and clearing skies behind the front will allow a warm-up in
temperatures Wednesday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to lower
90s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Drier air will temporarily be in place on Thursday as the cold
front sits south of the area, ahead of the next system incoming
this weekend. A warm front will lift northward on Friday, followed
by another frontal boundary moving in from the northwest on
Saturday, allowing for widespread scattered to numerous showers
with embedded thunderstorms through the weekend. Strong storm
potential will be present, along with heavy rainfall causing
localized flooding issues.

High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s each
day during this period, with mild lows in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Complex forecast over the next 24 hours with multiple waves of
thunderstorms, some severe. Breezy southeasterly winds will
continue as MVFR cumulus ceilings build this afternoon. First wave
of rain and embedded storms will begin over the next few hours
and be followed by continued bouts of activity through around
03-06z. Combination of rainfall and a lifting warm front tonight
will lower ceilings to a low-MVFR and IFR. As the front lifts,
winds will turn southerly around 10 knots or less. There is more
uncertainty regarding the second round of storms on Tuesday which
appears to accelerate across the area between 12-16z. Threats
with the second round will be primarily considerable winds
potentially up to 50 knots, isolated tornadoes and small hail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Enhancing east to southeast winds across the local waters
will trend southerly tonight with small craft advisory conditions
likely through Tuesday morning. Rain and embedded storms will
pass over the waters this evening and through overnight hours
while a warm front slowly lifts northeastward into the waters by
daybreak. Another wave of strong to severe storms will develop and
move eastward into the waters during the late morning hours
Tuesday and be capable of considerable thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and waterspouts. Winds will trend lighter and offshore
behind the warm front Tuesday morning. This will be followed by a
slow moving cold front that will pass into the waters on
Wednesday. Conditions begin to improve Thursday as an area of weak
high pressure consolidates to the east.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL and SE GA
beaches, remaining moderate for SA GA Tuesday, but low for NE FL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

From Monday to Wednesday, forecast storm total rainfall amounts
are from 2 to 3 inches for southeast GA to about 1 to 2 inches for
northeast FL. This may be enough to raise river levels a bit but
for now no minor river flooding is forecast. The high- end
potential total rain is over 5 inches in some locations, mainly
favoring nrn half of the area, so we will need to monitor trends
in the guidance for further updates to the forecast rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  83  69  87 /  80 100  70  20
SSI  70  84  72  87 /  80  90  70  40
JAX  69  89  71  90 /  80  90  70  60
SGJ  71  91  71  88 /  70  80  60  70
GNV  69  89  71  87 /  70  80  70  80
OCF  71  92  71  87 /  60  70  60  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$