Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 040347
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
847 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT CONTINUED TODAY OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA, WITH MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS EAST OF A PAYSON TO
WINSLOW TO 4-CORNERS LINE. CONSEQUENTLY, THIS WAS WHERE THE
MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WAS LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM TRAINING
STORMS, THOUGH A FEW PRODUCED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY
DISSIPATED, IT SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO YAVAPAI
AND GILA COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE JUMPS IN
DEWPOINT VALUES (STANTON IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI SAW DEWPOINTS RISE
FROM 38 TO 61 DEGREES AS THE OUTFLOW MOVED THROUGH). WITH THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STORMS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS ARE DOWNPLAYING THIS
POSSIBILITY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY DUE TO
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WE SENT AN UPDATED FORECAST
FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. REST OF DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /352 PM MST/...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH THE GREATEST ACTIVITY
ROUGHLY EAST OF LINE FROM PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF-PAGE. LOCALIZED
FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD, BUT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR MEANS LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

SATURDAY ONWARD...AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND...FLOW WILL TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF KEEPS MOISTURE MUCH MORE LIMITED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHILE THE GFS IS MORE FAVORABLE TO RETURNING
STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE MODEL FORECAST
TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AFT 18Z FRIDAY PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KPRC-KFLG-KPGA, ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOD/HVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY STORM
OUTFLOWS TO 30 KTS AND LOCALIZED HAIL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/RR
AVIATION...JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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