Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 042215
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
250 PM MST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY... MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ANOTHER
DRY PUNCH OF AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
AND SHOULD PUSH OUR MONSOON MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ON THURSDAY...MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
TO RETURN TO ARIZONA. PROGS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOW
THE RICHEST LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIONS MOVING INTO YAVAPAI THEN
COCONINO COUNTIES THURSDAY. THIS MOISTURE THEN SLOWLY SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY AS WINDS ALOFT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WE MAY SEE SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF COCONINO COUNTY DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. ON SATURDAY,
THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO PAYSON WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUSTY SW WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE CARDS ACROSS COCONINO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST
OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONFINE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS REGION ON SUNDAY. PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP ON MONDAY WITH A DECENT MOISTURE RETURN. PRECIP CHANCES
WERE SET TO CLIMO VALUES FOR EARLY AUGUST. THUS SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SW10G20KTS TIL 02Z THEN
AGAIN AFTER 18Z. FEW-SCT150 WITH ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF A KPAN-
KRQE LINE 19Z-00Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...41
AVIATION...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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