National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 251051
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 AM MST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PERSISTENT BAND OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO OUR WEST THAT
FORMED OVER 24 HOURS AGO ESSENTIALLY INDICATES THE MONSOON BOUNDARY
AT THIS TIME. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN
HIGH...WITH WARM AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS SLOWLY ERODING EACH DAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN EACH DAY...WITH STORMS
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE BOARD
TO REFLECT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AT THIS TIME...THIS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF KFLG. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES
MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY TODAY...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
KGCN...KFLG...AND KSEZ. THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AZ. LOCALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

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