Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
FXUS65 KFGZ 262240

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
338 PM MST Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Weak high pressure over Arizona will move east
tonight as a low pressure center off the Pacific Northwest Coast
moves southeast. This low will bring increasing winds and clouds to
northern Arizona Monday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
by the afternoon. Drying conditions are expected Tuesday night. Fair
weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday before another system
arrives Friday and Saturday.

.DISCUSSION...High clouds are already increasing this afternoon over
northern Arizona ahead of the next low pressure center beginning to
move into the Pacific Northwest. This low will move southeast and
across Arizona Monday into Tuesday. Model guidance continues to
indicate snow levels will fall rapidly to 5500-6000 feet as 700 mb
temperatures cool to around -4 to -6 C Monday night and Tuesday.
This system will move quickly and QPF amounts appear to be low.

The progressive pattern continues into the latter half of the week
with another transient ridge bringing a brief period of dry weather
Wednesday and Thursday. Then another storm system moves into
northern Arizona from the northwest Friday into Saturday. While
confidence remains low on the details, guidance suggest this system
will have good jet support/upper level dynamics and significant cold
air advection as it moves into the area. Current QPF amounts are
low, however, a lot could change in the next few days so stay tuned!


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions with periods
of high clouds through 16z-18z Monday. Middle clouds will increase
aft 18z Monday, with lowering cigs during the afternoon. Expect sct
-shra/-shsn aft 20z Monday, producing brief MVFR conditions, mainly
along and north of the I-40 corridor. SW sfc winds 10-25kts during
the day Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.