Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 292150
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
250 PM MST FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS THE
FORECAST...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE
REGION WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY HOWEVER, AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL, SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND
ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS NEAR STORMS.

FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
DECREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THIS TIME, EXPECT COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTORMS (CIGS AOA 12KFT MSL) ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE THROUGH 03Z SAT. VARIABLE
WIND GUSTS TO 35KT POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTIVE CELLS OTHERWISE SFC
WINDS VARIABLE TO 10KT. AFT 18Z SAT...EXPECT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTORMS EAST OF A K0V7-KSOW LINE.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND NAVAJO NATION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF  AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF APACHE COUNTY ON SATURDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXPANDS WESTWARD TO THE KAIBAB AND
COCONINO FOREST DISTRICTS ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RETURN TO OUR
AREA. WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTIONS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER APACHE
COUNTY MONDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


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