Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 232223

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
322 PM MST Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather disturbance will bring isolated
shower and thunderstorm activity to much of northern Arizona. The
eastern Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains region should see
scattered storm coverage. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected over the high terrain Friday and


Area radars show scattered tstorms east of a Page to Payson line,
with isolated coverage west of this line. His res models suggest
activity to continue through this evening across the northeastern
portion of the state and diminish in the west.

Progs continue to show slight cooling aloft on Thursday due to a
low pressure system moving through the Great basin. Still
expecting primarily isolated showers and tstorm coverage for most
of the area, though the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
should see scattered coverage.

For Friday and the weekend, high pressure aloft to redevelop over
the desert southwest Friday and then become centered over Nevada
for the weekend. Friday should feature just a chance of an
afternoon storm over the high country. Cross sections indicate
low and mid level winds to become east-southeast with time late
Friday and bring a slow increase in moisture and instability.
Storm chances were added to areas along and south of I-40 on
Saturday. Drier northerly flow aloft on Sunday should limit storm
chances to the White Mountains.

Monday and Tuesday...Models continue to show Monsoon moisture
making a comeback, pushed northward by an increase in thunderstorm
activity over northwest Mexico. At this time the best chances
still look to be from the Mogollon Rim southward.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
most of northern Arizona through the 24 hr period. Scattered
thunderstorms and TEMPO MVFR/IFR conditions are expected near KINW
this afternoon ending around 02z. Another round of scattered
thunderstorms are forecast Thursday afternoon, mainly affecting the
KFLG-KSEZ-KGCN-KPRC terminal aerodromes. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will continue
to favor the Eastern Rim and White Mountains. For Thursday
afternoon, thunderstorm chances will spread west across the entire
Mogollon Rim and Coconino Plateau. Mainly dry conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona Friday, with thunderstorm chances
confined to the White Mountains.

Saturday through Monday...Afternoon thunderstorms are forecast to
remain confined to the White Mountains Saturday and Sunday, with
thunderstorm chances gradually increasing along the Mogollon Rim






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