Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 240331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
831 PM MST Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the western U.S
through this week. Northern Arizona can expect max temperatures to
remain above normal, with continued dry conditions. Gusty
northeast winds will develop tonight across areas along and south
of the Mogollon Rim.


.UPDATE...A very warm day was observed across northern Arizona
with a few new record high temperatures set. Breezy northeast
winds developed today and will persist tonight in areas along and
southwest of the rim country. Temperatures will drop a few degrees
on Tuesday. Areas from the Grand Canyon south towards Flagstaff
may see areas of smoke tonight from a prescribed burn on the north


.PREV DISCUSSION /246 PM MST/... The operational forecast models
are in very good agreement through Thursday as they show a warm
and large high pressure cell to build over the west coast. This
will allow for continued dry weather across northern Arizona, with
afternoon max temperatures remaining above normal for the dates.
Gusty northeast winds to strengthen tonight for areas along and
south of the Mogollon Rim, with gusts to 30 mph possible in the
favored downslope areas. Wind speeds to then decrease through
Wednesday morning. Fair weather with light winds is expected
Wednesday, with Thursday afternoon seeing some west to northwest

Progs are showing a dry and fast moving weather disturbance
passing through the Four Corners in the late Thursday early
Friday time frame. The latest ECMWF is much cooler than the GFS
and GEM with this feature. We have stayed with the warmer models
for the temp forecasts for Thursday through Friday.

The upcoming weekend looks dry with light winds. Max temps to
remain above normal for the dates.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hrs, with some localized smoke from prescribed burning.
North to northeast winds are forecast across the majority of
northern Arizona with most locations experiencing speeds of 10 kt
or less. However, favored locations along and south of the
Mogollon Rim (including KFLG) will experience speeds 15-20 kt with
gusts near 25 kt at times, especially 04Z-19Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions
will persist Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong ridge of high
pressure builds in to the region. East to northeast winds will
continue in most areas through Tuesday night, gusty at times along
and south of the Mogollon Rim. Lighter winds are forecast Wednesday,
shifting to the west or southwest by afternoon for most areas.

Thursday through Saturday...Above normal temperatures and dry
conditions are expected through the period. A weak trough passing
northeast of the area will bring west winds Thursday, then slightly
cooler temperatures and a shift to light mainly northeast winds
Friday and Saturday.






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