313
FXUS65 KFGZ 151714
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1014 AM MST Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures to continue through today, with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms bringing gusty
winds, but mostly light rainfall. An uptick in monsoonal moisture
is forecast Wednesday through Friday, with widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure centered over the Mojave
Desert this morning will gradually shift eastward through the day.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
again this afternoon as moisture looks to gradually return to the
region. Gusty winds and dry lightning will remain the primary threat
for today, with a couple brief downpours possible in any strong
storm.

Much of the hi-res guidance has activity initially developing over
the higher terrain from the Mogollon Rim and north. Additional
development should continue through the afternoon, however with weak
flow given the high over head, storms arn`t expected to move too
much. As storms over Black Mesa decay, the resulting outflow may
also reinvigorate activity across the Little Colorado River Valley
and Mogollon Rim into the evening hours.

Wednesday through Friday...With the high now in place over New
Mexico, and weak troughing near the Gulf of California, sub-tropical
moisture is advected northward into Arizona. PWATs look to increase
to near the 90th percentile for this time of year, which will usher
in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across northern
Arizona. Activity looks likely peak on Thursday, as added upper-
level dynamics from the approaching trough will aid in upscale growth
for the storms. However, latest guidance does seem to track the low
further westward, which may limit it`s overall influence.

Given the increase in moisture, flash flooding looks to be the
primary concern going into the later part of the week. A couple more
vigorous storm may be able to produce some hail and gusty winds,
however widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

Temperatures also look to cool through the second-half of the
week. Afternoon highs from Wednesday onward look to be around 5-10
degrees below normal for this time of year. For this reason,
Wednesday has been removed from the Extreme Heat Warning for the
Grand Canyon, as temperatures are not likely to reach to 110F
threshold given the increased cloud cover.

Saturday through Monday...Over the weekend the aforementioned trough
begins to propagate eastward, ushering in drier air behind it
(especially across the western-half of the state). Global ensembles
do point to a downward trend in PWATs as a result. However, with the
ridge still in place to the east, the monsoonal flow looks to keep
enough moisture remaining in place to keep isolated to scattered
activity in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 15/18Z through Wednesday 16/18Z...SCT SHRA/TSRA
expected from 19Z to 03Z, mainly north and east of a KCMR-KPAN line.
ISO lingering -SHRA possible through 09Z. Brief MVFR conditions and
gusty, erratic winds possible in and around TS. HZ/FU possible near
KGCN/KPGA from area wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds
S/SW 10-20 kts from 18Z to 02Z, otherwise VRB 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 16/18Z through Friday 18/18Z...SHRA/TSRA each
afternoon/evening, most numerous over the higher terrain. MVFR
conditions and gusty, erratic winds expected in and around TS.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds W/SW 5-15 kts on Wednesday,
becoming VRB 5-10 kts on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Cooling trend with scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day. Some dry lightning strikes are
possible Tuesday, then more wetting rains are expected on Wednesday.
Daytime winds are southwest through west 5-15 mph each day. Gusty,
erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorms.

Thursday through Saturday...Widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity, decreasing in coverage on Saturday. Wetting rains are
likely within any stronger storms. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph,
gusting to around 20 mph each day. Gusty, erratic winds possible in
and around thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff