Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 230431

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
931 PM MST FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect less shower and thunderstorm coverage this
weekend as drier air moves in from the west. Hot afternoon
temperatures are in store for elevations below 4000 feet. Moisture
and storm chances will increase again next week, especially along
and south of the Mogollon Rim.


.DISCUSSION...Extended shower and thunderstorm activity required a
minor update this evening to increase chances for showers across
Coconino and Yavapai counties, while decreasing precipitation
chances along the Mogollon Rim region. Otherwise the afternoon
forecast grids look good.

Chances for precipitation will decrease slightly this weekend
especially across northwestern Arizona. A wet weather pattern
returns for the first half of next week with strong southeasterly
flow aloft bringing up additional Monsoon moisture from the south.


.PREV DISCUSSION /234 PM MST/... Plenty of shower and thunderstorm
activity this afternoon along the Mogollon Rim with outflow
boundaries dropping into the Payson area. Elsewhere coverage is
widely scattered. This activity to continue through sunset then
decrease in coverage.

For the weekend...Still looking very warm for areas below 4000
feet, and the Excessive Heat Warning for the Grand Canyon and
Yavapai county Valley areas will continue through 7 pm Saturday.
Models do show light westerly flow pushing drier air into
northwest AZ, generally below 500 mb along with slight warming in
the mid levels. Thus expecting only isolate coverage across
Yavapai and most of Coconino county. The greatest storm chances
remain over southern Navajo and Apache Counties where deeper
moisture will linger.

Starting Monday, progs show moisture to again push westward, with
storm chances increasing, especially for areas along and south of
the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Depending on where the high
eventually sets up, we could see some east or northeast steering
flow off the higher terrain which is favorable for some stronger
storms in the late afternoon and evening in Gila County and the
lower elevations of Yavapai County. Far northern Arizona
(along/north of Grand Canyon to Window Rock) often remains drier
in this pattern. With high pressure in place, expect hot
temperatures in this area, 110+ at Phantom Ranch, 102-104 at Page
and near 90 at Grand Canyon south rim.




.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM MST
Saturday FOR AZZ006-037.




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