Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 032350

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
550 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

For 00Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Surface high pressure centered across the Ohio Valley and southern
Great Lakes this afternoon continued to build further east of the
region. As it leaves, a substantial plume of moisture (that
originated in the subtropical Pacific around 10N130W will continue
overspreading the forecast area. This moisture was in part rounding
the bottom portion of an upper low situated across western Mexico
east of central Gulf of California. Lower level moisture upgliding
over the region, along with the high altitude moisture have set the
stage for a wet and unsettled night. An expansive area of rain
covered an area from central Texas to eastern Tennessee and western

Thus, an unsettled weather pattern will begin across the Tennessee
Valley tonight, as widespread rain affect the region. Night lows will
only cool into the lower 40s with light easterly winds.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Wet. This will be the primary weather across the area into the first
portion of next week. The upper low will move across northern Mexico
into Monday. As it moves across southern Texas, it will spawn surface
low development over Deep South Texas. This low will track to the
northeast across the Deep South and Tennessee Valley, continuing to
bring widespread showers to the area. The surface low should reach
the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday, with rain chances diminishing
somewhat during Tuesday. Before then, a deeper influx of moisture
from the Gulf as well as increased instability should yield isolated
thunderstorms during Monday afternoon and Monday night. Unlike
earlier this week, main threats from any storms that occur will be
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Total rainfall across the area through Tuesday should range from 1-3
inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Even with the heavy
rains from the storms earlier this week, the ground overall is still
on the dry side, and can probably absorb this moisture (provided it
doesn`t all come at once). The heavier showers could pose runoff
issues mainly in the short term. If the higher end of rainfall
amounts occurs, some hydrological issues (higher stream levels) could

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Dry conditions are in store Tuesday night into Wednesday as
the upper-level low slingshots off to the northeast. Another system
is not far behind, as an amplified trough moves into the region on

Wednesday will warm up into the low/mid 50s before cloud cover
further increases and precip arrives ahead of the arctic cold front
Wednesday evening. As temperatures fall down into the low/mid 30s
near daybreak Thursday morning, there could be a small window to see
snow mixing with rain. Exact timing of the front still differs
between the models and could make or break the chance to see this
wintry precip mix. Also, the ECMWF is slower and holds onto the
moisture longer than the GFS at this time, but the GFS still shows a
small window Thursday morning before drying out quickly. The main
batch of precip will be Wednesday night into Thursday with the cold
front arriving Thursday morning. The models do agree that overall,
the cold front will push the rain out of the forecast area by
Thursday evening with cold, dry air filtering in behind it.

Thursday`s highs, not lows, will be in the lower 40s with the
overnight lows tanking into the teens to lower 20s across the board
with the help of mostly clear skies. Friday will be precip free and
cold with highs in the 30s and lows around 20 degrees again.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Reduced flying conds will be entrenched across much of the cntrl TN
Valley tonight/into Sun, as light/mod shra embedded within a wswly
flow regime continue to traverse ewd over much of the region.
Prevailing VFR conds right now will give way to lower cigs/vis and
developing MVFR conds later this evening, as the moisture profile
thickens near the sfc. Conds may tempo lower into the IFR cat early
Sun morning in some of the thicker low clouds/brief heavy shra.





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