Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 261724 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

For 18Z TAFs.


(Issued 1022 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016)
Much of Lincoln, Franklin, and Moore counties in southern middle
Tennessee have experienced mostly cloudy conditions and a few
isolated showers so far this morning. This is all developing along a
weak convergence axis that extends from western North Carolina
southwest into northern Georgia and then through our Tennessee
counties to just south of Nashville. This boundary will likely be the
focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity later this
afternoon. Although it is slowly edging northward, models keep this
boundary between Nashville and our Tennessee counties through much of
the day.

DCAPE values much of the day do not look too impressive based on
model guidance, but around 6 to 8 pm they do climb up to between 1000
J/KG and 1200 J/KG. Ample heating should allow CAPE values to rise
into the 2000 J/KG to 3000 J/KG range. So, could see a few strong
storms develop with the more scattered activity anticipated near the
AL/TN state line and into southern Tennessee later this afternoon
(Mainly after 1 or 2 pm). Main threats with strongest storms will be
winds gusts between 40 and 50 mph. Highest chance of rain (~40%) is
progged by most models to be in the northern portions of Lincoln,
Franklin, and Moore counties. Even higher pop is likely further north
and east of those areas later this afternoon, closer to the stronger
convergence associated with the boundary.

Primarily partly cloudy conditions are progged by a blend of the
mesoscale models (except around noon/mostly cloudy). Morning
temperatures at 7 AM were already running 2 to 4 degrees above
temperatures yesterday. This should allow more widespread mid to
upper 90 degrees highs today, except in Southern Middle Tennessee
(lower 90s). Highs at both Muscle Shoals and Huntsville were raised
to 98 degrees and this still may be too cool. Luckily, humidity
should mix out again today as dewpoints drop into the lower to mid
60s this afternoon. Although it will remain hot, heat index values
should remain between 99 and 104 degrees this afternoon.



For 18Z TAFs: Sct cu with bases around 4K ft have developed across
much of the area in response to latent heating. Precip though has
been slow to develop with the absence of any real lifting mechanism
closer to the two main terminals. Given the low prob, no precip was
included for the afternoon period with VFR conds prevailing well into
Wed. Convective chances though will increase during the day Wed, as
an upper disturbance begins to impact the region. Outside of any
shra/tsra though, VFR conds look to continue with mainly just an
increase in mid/high clouds.



.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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