Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 271925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
225 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The weak upper level trough and associated surface reflection
(primarily a wind shift) will slide to the east of the region
tonight. The associated shower activity should also quickly exit to
our east. The overall airmass change will be nominal at best with
unseasonably mild conditions expected. Although very dry conditions
prevail across the region, light winds and clear skies may lead to
some light radiation fog and have included that in the grids for the
overnight period.

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The unseasonably warm and dry pattern will persist into the upcoming
weekend. In fact, as the upper level ridge builds across the region
we could see high temperatures even a category or two higher than
today. We generally trended at or above the model blend consensus
given the atypical dry soil conditions and trends over the past few
days. This will push high temperatures to just below or near record
values. Otherwise, sensible weather will be nill with a rather nice
start to the weekend on tap for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

High pressure will continue to dominate the weekend
forecast, and the rest of the extended forecast really. The ridge of
high pressure will start to shift east on Sunday as a shortwave
trough moves through the Great Lakes. We will end the weekend with
only a slight increase in cloud cover and temps in the low 80s.

As the ridge continues to shift eastward into the first half of the
work week and center near GA/FL, sfc southerly flow persists. This
will allow for temps to remain above normal and even jeopardize
daytime record highs as we head into November! Before we even think
about November, those out and about on Monday for Halloween will
have a scary good forecast in store. Dry conditions with daytime
highs in the low/mid 80s, evening temps in the 70s and overnight
lows cooling into the upper 50s. Record high temps on November 1st:
KHSV: 84 (2000) KMSL: 86 (1915) and on Nov 2nd: KHSV: 84 (1961)
KMSL: 82 (1974-along with additional years). With forecasted daytime
highs hovering around those values, will have to stay tuned to see if
any records are broken! However, with the ridge lingering across the
region, expect another increase in cloud cover due to a disturbance
mid-week, but dry conditions will persist through the forecast
period, not helping the expanding drought conditions across the TN


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Weak prefrontal trough was moving across the region early this
afternoon. Given lack of forcing and limited moisture this feature
has sparked only isolated showers across our far eastern counties
well east of both terminal locations. Winds will continue to veer
ever so slightly from southwest to west through the afternoon and may
freshen a bit to over 10 knots at times. After sunset expect the
gradient to relax and vfr conditions to persist through the midday
period on Friday.





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