660
FXUS64 KHUN 211928
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
228 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Afternoon highs have risen into the mid to upper 80s under mostly
sunny skies and southerly winds. This is the result of high
pressure centered just to our east and strong WAA under broad
ridging aloft, continuing a warming trend across the Tennessee
Valley early this week. Will maintain dry conditions through the
remainder of the day, and drier air near the sfc will prohibit any
fog development overnight. Breezy afternoon winds should subside
with the loss of daytime heating, and will see a gradual increase
in clouds tonight. This will help keep low temps on the warm side,
only falling to the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Moisture will continue to increase across the region as an upper
trough axis shifts east across the Great Lakes, pushing the ridge
axis farther east. Wednesday will be another dry day with
afternoon temperatures nearing 90 degrees despite the increasing
cloud cover. As broad upper troughing becomes more dominant, this
will result in increasing chances (20-50%) for showers and
thunderstorms by Thursday. These storms will be primarily
diurnally driven as a sfc cold front is held up to our north and
west. By Friday, a shortwave trough axis will swing across the
area, and combined with rich moisture will result in medium
(40-60%) chances of showers and thunderstorms. Given that this is
more typical of a summer-time pattern, some of these storms could
be on the strong side and could produce gusty winds and small
hail, but the chance for widespread severe storms looks very low
and confined to areas farther west. Daily highs will remain in the
mid to upper 80s with lows near 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

This impulse along the front swings east Friday night and south of
the area Saturday night. This subsequently bring medium to high
(40-70%) chance for showers and storms to the area. General view
of the storm environment would favor plenty of CAPE with
sufficient shear to support at least a few organized strong
storms, with gusty winds and hail (along with locally heavy
downpours) being the main threats on Friday night into Saturday
night. We`ll remain in a fairly active pattern through the the
upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend, with zonal low aloft
allowing for additional shortwaves to traverse the region.
Subsequently, medium chances (40-60%)for showers/storms will be
present in the forecast both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period at both KMSL and
KHSV. Gusty, southerly winds up to 14-15 kts will continue this
afternoon before subsiding with sunset.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...HC