Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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543
FXUS66 KMTR 252051
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
151 PM PDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A building ridge of high pressure along the coast will
result in a gradual warming trend through the upcoming weekend
along with dry weather conditions.

.DISCUSSION...as of 01:50 PM PDT Wednesday...Low cloud cover over
inland areas of the region continue to erode this afternoon with
daytime heating. Meanwhile, do see some cumulus developing over
the higher terrain as expected with lingering moisture aloft. The
most development remains over the inland portion of the North Bay
Mountains where a few showers and potentially a thunderstorm or
two will be possible this afternoon. Otherwise, most locations
across the region will remain dry as the main mid/upper level
system over southern California shifts to the east today and
tonight. Low clouds will likely spread back inland this evening
and persist through Thursday morning. In addition, patchy drizzle
is once again expected along coastal areas overnight into Thursday
morning.

A building ridge of high pressure will become the dominate
weather feature across the region for the remainder of the week
and result in a gradual warming trend. By tomorrow afternoon, most
inland locations will be around 5 degrees warmer compared to this
afternoon. While the marine influence will keep coastal areas
cooler, may see a few degrees of warming with more afternoon
sunshine on both Thursday and Friday.

The ridge will strengthen and temperatures will warm aloft
through the upcoming Memorial Day Holiday Weekend. This will
result in inland temperatures warming back into the upper 70s to
mid 80s with coastal areas generally in the upper 60s to lower
70s. While overnight and morning coastal stratus will likely
continue as a result of onshore flow, dry weather conditions are
expected region- wide into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:31 AM PDT Tuesday...Widespread stratus with
decent onshore feed. Only minor tweak to the 12z tafs. Do expect
gradually clearing from 19-21z for most terminals. Better shot for
more VFR conditions this afternoon unlike yesterday. Cigs return
tonight with more stratus.

Vicinity of KSFO...Feeling a little more optimistic today for
better clearing...well at least going to more a SCT cig this
afternoon. For now...will show improvement from 19-20z. The fly
in the ointment to watch is the rapid clearing over the S Bay and
its northward movement.

SFO Bridge Approach...If the latest trend on satellite continues,
clearing may occur a little sooner on the approach.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs through 19-20z this afternoon.
Cigs return this evening with MVFR/IFR overnight. Onshore winds
10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...Fun climate facts -- downtown San Francisco has picked
up nearly 23" since October 1st which is 99% of average. We are
currently just 0.12" drier than normal. This is the most rainfall
in San Francisco for the same period since 2010-2011. It is also
nearly double the amount recorded October 1st, 2013, to May 25th,
2014.

&&

.MARINE...as of 09:30 AM PDT Wednesday...Building high pressure
will result in gusty northerly winds over the coastal waters today
through the weekend. Winds will be strongest in the outer waters
north of Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions from fresh squared
seas will exist as northwest seas build to match the period today
and tomorrow.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: Bell


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