Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
FXUS66 KMTR 240003
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
503 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Slightly cooler temperatures for the inland areas on
Sunday. Onshore flow and cool marine air will maintain cool
conditions near the coast. A second warming trend is anticipated
for the inland areas beginning on Tuesday.
.DISCUSSION...as of 2:53 PM PDT Saturday...Mostly clear skies
continue across the forecast area this afternoon. The current
visible satellite image continues to show a well defined smoke
plume generated by the Sobranes fire. This smoke plume has a south
southwesterly trajectory. Low clouds are passing over the coastal
waters and Stratus is beginning to impact the immediate coast as
the afternoon sea breeze sets in.
The 1200Z ECMWF and GFS20 have initialized well with the current
synoptic weather pattern and remain in good agreement through at
least next Friday. Both models maintain a dome of high pressure
over the forecast area today with a slight fall in heights on
Sunday, resulting in slightly cooler inland temperatures for
Sunday and Monday. Cool seasonal temperatures are expected to
persist along the coast. By Tuesday a four corners high sets up
bringing another round of warm weather to our forecast area which
will last through the end of next week.
.Fire...as 9:30 AM PDT...Saturday...High pressure persists over
California today and has compressed the marine layer to around
1000 feet deep this morning. The marine layer is expected to
remain compressed to at or below a 1000 feet tonight. In addition,
a temperature inversion is anticipated to set up overnight
maintaining warm overnight temperatures over areas of higher
terrain. Overnight temperatures at 2000 feet will be in the mid to
upper 70s with poor relative humidity recoveries.
.AVIATION...as of 4:45 PM PDT Saturday...Stratus has been clearing
out during the day and now there is only a patch from southern
MRY Bay south. The clouds should clear out of MRY Bay by this
evening leaving a period of clear. But stratus is expected to
reform along the coast later tonight with the nighttime cooling.
Models bring cigs into OAK and SFO after 09Z. Cigs will also
spread into the MRY Bay Area as well.
Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs after 10Z. West winds 20g25 kt
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...There may be a brief cigs near MRY
through 02Z but then it will clear out. IFR cigs return to MRY and
SNS after 09Z.
.MARINE...as of 4:45 PM PDT Saturday...Moderate to strong
northwest winds will persist through the weekend as the surface
gradient strengthens. The strongest winds today will be along the
big sur coast where gale force gusts are possible. The strongest
winds will then shift to the northern outer waters later in the
weekend. Sea conditions will deteriorate as winds increase.
.Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
PUBLIC FORECAST: Larry
AVIATION: W Pi
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