Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 022358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AS EXPECTED SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR DUE TO A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND STRONGER WESTERLY
FLOW HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS RUNNING
3 TO 6 DEGREES LESS THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST SPOTS WITH THE WARMEST READINGS FOR INLAND
SPOTS PLUS SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO REFORM
TONIGHT AND SPREAD THROUGH COASTAL LOCATIONS PLUS MOST INLAND
AREAS. LOWS IN MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW
UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.

SYNOPTICALLY A LONGWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MORE ZONAL
(WESTERLY) OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AGAIN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY MANY INLAND
SPOTS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. CLOSER TO THE COAST
MOST PLACES WILL SEE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE WARMER READINGS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT TEN DAYS
AS THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH.

NO WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE LAYER HAS ALL
BUT SCATTERED OUT THIS AFTERNOON MAKING WAY FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION BEING PATCHY STRATUS OVER
SAN MATEO AND MARIN COUNTIES. PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS IS ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO GAP AND OVER KSFO AT THIS HOUR.
WHILE STRATUS IS FORECAST TO RETURN TONIGHT OVER THE BAY AREA WE
WILL LIKELY SEE BROKEN TO SCATTERED CIGS OVER KSFO AND POSSIBLY
OVER KOAK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE HINT TO
THE RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO TIMING. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET TIME
A BIT BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. MODERATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ONSHORE BREEZES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 04Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FROM 04Z THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 00Z-04Z FOR SCATTERED CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS NEAR
20 KT WITH GUST TO AROUND 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN
01Z-03Z THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:44 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: DYKEMA


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