Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 181952
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1252 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 12:42 PM PDT FRIDAY...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A LOT LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENTLY WITH A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER...STRATUS CLOUDS ARE HUGGING THE COASTLINE AND EXTENDING
ONLY LOCALLY INLAND OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AND ALONG THE SAN
MATEO COAST. EXPECT A WARMER DAY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE DISTRICT MAINLY DUE TO
THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN
THE 60S AND 70S...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER 80S IN PORTIONS OF
SAN BENITO COUNTY AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE...BUT PRECIPITATION COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 12:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED
THE AREA TERMINALS AND LINGERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RETURN OVERNIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY IFR AROUND 12Z SAT BUT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CLEARING TO OCCUR BY 15Z SAT IN MOST AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST PEAKING AFTER 22Z
WITH GUSTS TO 27 KTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
04Z. STRATUS TO RETURN 04-09Z TIME ACROSS THE BAY AND WILL EXPECT
CLEARING AFTER 14Z SAT WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIMITED CLEARING AT MRY BUT STRATUS
LINGERS NEARBY AND SHOULD RETURN BY 00Z SAT. MVFR TO IFR AT MRY
THROUGH 16Z SAT AND THEN SLOW CLEARING. VFR AT SNS WITH RETURN OF
STRATUS AFTER 02Z AND MVFR CIGS. WILL CLEAR AROUND 15Z SAT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS ALL PACIFIC WATERS AND
MONTEREY BAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM N TO S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCA IN SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL OF
LARGE NW SWELL ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
FROM ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AS EVENT APPROACHES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: JOHNSON
MARINE: JOHNSON

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