Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
539 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 156 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

The back edge of the cloud cover over the region was currently
across eastern Kansas. This will slowly edge to the east through
this morning with clearing occuring this afternoon.

Southwesterly flow aloft and at the surface will continue today
thanks to Surface high pressure over the southeastern CONUS and
an upper level low over northern Old Mexico. This pattern will
help to keep a warmer airmass in place over the Ozarks. Afternoon
highs area forecast to reach the middle to upper 50s as a result.
This warm pattern will continue through tonight as well with
overnight low remaining in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

The upper level system over the Southwest will move east northeast
through the day on Tuesday. With little change in the surface flow
temperatures will again be mild in the 50s during the afternoon.
As the upper low moves across Texas, southerly winds will drag
moisture from the Gulf and bring a chance for rain to extreme
southern Missouri by late Tuesday evening lingering into Wednesday
morning. Locations south of I-44 will have the best and really
only chance for any precipitation with locations nearest the
Arkansas line having the best overall chance.

Dry high pressure will move over the area by Wednesday afternoon
as the upper low swings east of the Ozarks. Temperatures will
remain mild through Thursday afternoon with highs climbing into
the lower 60s across the area as surface winds increase from the
southwest as low pressure develops and moves across the plains.
Winds may be a bit breezy during the day on Thursday.

A cold front, that has been talked about for the past few days,
will move through the area late Thursday night through Friday
morning. The front will sport precipitations in advance of the
front and much colder temperatures behind the front. Highs on
Friday will reach the 50s across south central Missouri but only
the 40s from I-44 north. Temperatures will slowly fall Friday
afternoon and evening as the front moves quickly east of the
area. The cold air will move into the Ozarks quickly Friday night
with lows Saturday morning in the 20s and Highs on Saturday only
expected to be in the 30s for all but the southeastern Ozarks.

At this point, models continue to have significant differences in
the system that is forecast to move through the region Christmas
Eve Day and on Christmas. There is still a very low confidence
signal for light precipitation during this period. With the cold
air in place this might bring some flurries,. But again confidence
is very low in this.

The one thing of better confidence is that the system will bring a
reinforcing shot of cold air to the region with overnight lows
Sunday night into Monday morning in the teens for most areas and
day time highs on Monday struggling to reach the freezing mark.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

Low MVFR ceilings will continue to linger across the region
through this morning but will begin to break and lift by midday.
Cloud cover will shift east for the afternoon and into the
overnight hours. However, MVFR ceilings will move back into the
area by Tuesday morning.




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