Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The main concern will be strong/severe thunderstorm potential and

A band of warm air/moisture advection is occurring over the area
ahead of a strong vertically stacked low over the TX Panhandle.
Showers/isolated thunderstorms have been occurring over the
western cwfa since mid/late morning which has stabilized the
atmosphere. Farther east, temperatures have warmed into 70s over
the eastern cwfa. In the near term this afternoon, basically what
you see is what you get. The north-south band of showers coupled
with storm movement parallel to this band has kept the convection
benign for the most part.

Going into the evening there are two areas of concern.

1. Eastern cwfa east of the current shower activity. We will see a
gradual increase in synoptic scale lift as the upper low moves
east through OK. Convection allowing models (cams) increase/fill
in the convection as it begins to move east late this afternoon
and this evening. Instability/cape is modest, mlcape as high as
500-700 j/kg along the MO/AR south of KUNO/West Plains this
evening. Given favorable shear and low level helicity profiles,
storms may finally develop into a line with some embedded
mesovorts/line segments and/or supercells. This would be primarily
from 02z/9 pm to 06z/1 am before the storms shift east. The main
overall storm risk would be damaging winds as the storms develop
into a line.

2. Eastern cwfa over southeast KS and far western MO. As the low
shifts east, most model guidance develops moderate instability as
colder air aloft moves into the region. High res models show about
1000-1200 j/kg uncapped mlcape into our far western counties this
evening. CAMS have been persistent in developing convection in
low level convergence northeast of the low center late this
afternoon/this evening, and then eventually near the sfc low and
cold front as they move into northeast OK/far se KS/far sw MO late
this evening and overnight. Better instability is expected this
evening before weakening after midnight. Steeper midlevel lapse
rates would favor hail production. Winds will also be a threat
for storms that can stay rooted in the boundary layer. The best
chances for severe storms would be this evening.

Finally for Saturday, the upper low moves across southern MO with
continued chances for showers/scattered thunder. With the cold
core aloft, some brief hail threat may linger.

Rainfall is needed over the area, so hopefully this will be good
news. General forecast amounts range from around a half inch over
southeast KS to just over an inch over parts of the Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

An active low latitude storm track will keep rain in the forecast
at times, primarily focused Sunday night into Monday and then
again Wednesday into Thursday. There is fairly good agreement on
these systems with no major changes to the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Storm system currently over Oklahoma is progged to move into
eastern Missouri by the end of the forecast period. Conditions
range from VFR out west in the dry slot to occasional IFR where
rain is still falling or has just ended.

With just scattered showers and isolated thunder overnight...will
expect mainly VFR with occasional MVFR ceilings. Winds have been
rather erratic during the evening and if they go light or
calm...could have issues with fog forming locally.

As the low passes through on Saturday and wrap around moisture
moves in...will see ceilings drop to MVFR in the afternoon and IFR
after sundown.




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