Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 292325 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the surface High settles overhead tonight, winds will calm and
clear skies will allow for temps to drop near their dew points,
which should be running in the 30s throughout the region. We`ll
insert patchy frost mention for nearly all sites that spend at
least an hour or two in the 30s. Clouds will begin increasing
either late tonight, or early tmrw, as the next wave of energy
approaches. It will touch off showery pcpn tmrw into tmrw nite,
and we`ll carry sprinkles or chc pops for those time periods
pretty much fa-wide. This trof of energy makes passage by early
Friday and offers a reinforcing shot of cool air headed into the
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 pm CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CORRECTION: Mention of freeze advisory should be freeze warning.

Unless the upcoming evening or midnight forecasters decided to issue
a freeze watch for this weekend, will hold off any formal freeze
watch and/or warbing headline until the Thursday daytime forecast
package.

The two primary reasons for this slight delay in freeze headlines was
to 1) reduce some confusion with the occurance of frost later
tonight, and 2) allow a greater likelihood of collaborative
issuance of freeze headlines with NWS offices to the
North/East/South of the WFO PAH forecast area.

Although the probability remains quite high (80-95%) that
freezing/sbufreezing temperatures will occur over all of the WFO
PAH forecast area late Friday night and early Saturday morning,
then again Saturday night and Sunday morning, prefer to pin down
the timing of onset, duration, and actual temperature range closer
for public output.

The main limitation for Saturday morning will be the extent of
gradient wind flow over Southwest Indiana and the West Kentucky
Pennyrile region. These wind will definitely inhibit any frost
development. The only frost potential Saturday morning will likely be
patchy occurrence in protected area in Southern Illinois shortly
before daybreak as the wind gradient diminishes and the inversion
sets up. Given the shorter duration of freezing or sub-freezing
temperatures toward a hard freeze, may need to re-issue a freeze
headline for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

For Sunday, depending on the duration of freezing/sub-freezing
temperatures Friday night into Saturday, may need to continue the
potential for a freeze warning for Saturday night into Sunday
morning for part of the WFO PAH forecast area. Regardless of the
freezing temperatures, widespread frost will be expected by
Sunday morning.

In lieu of a Freeze Watch for this package, will continue a
mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and a special weather
statement, as well as social media.

With respect to rain chances early next week, GFS ensemble
climatology (1985-2010) suggest a 85 to 95 percent chance of
seeing around an inch or more over Southeast Missouri and
Southwest Illinois, west of Interstate 57 from Monday night into
Tuesday. The signal remains strong for rain on Tuesday into
Tuesday night, so kept chance to likely PoPs/Weather in place for
that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Aside from the possibility of MVFR fog at KCGI from 08-13Z, VFR
conditions will prevail through the period as surface high
pressure dominates. Northerly winds AOB 5 knots early may become
calm after 06Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 5 knots after
15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP





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