Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 172329
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
628 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

A surface high pressure ridge axis will slowly move off to the
east of the PAH forecast area through midweek. This will allow a
modest and dry southerly to westerly low level flow to get
established over our region. Meanwhile, in response to shortwave
energy moving through the flow aloft in the western CONUS, a ridge
is forecast to build over the southeastern CONUS by the end of
the short term period.

Thus, no pcpn is forecast, and temps will be on a steady rise to
above seasonable averages by Thu (highs 75 to 80). With the lower
trop on the dry side, we tended to forecast a slightly greater
diurnal range than what guidance and the model blends offered.
Dewpoints are expected to rise roughly ten degrees or so during
this time, generally maintaining afternoon relative humidity
minimums in the 30-40 percent range.

Expect one more chilly night in the lower 40s, with the
possibility of fog forming over the warmer waters of lakes and
rivers.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Confidence remains fairly good with the extended...however there
is some discontinuity with timing of frontal passage. Confidence
is still high with a frontal passage Sunday.

We will start the extended with high pressure in charge of the
weather and much above normal temperatures. The southerly flow on
the back side of the high will continue to usher gulf moisture into
the region ahead of the approaching cold front late in the weekend.
Again pops start in the west late Saturday...mainly west of the
Interstate 57 corridor. The Canadian and GFS are supportive of
this start time. The ECMWF is several hours slower with the
arrival in the west early Sunday morning. Its not uncommon for the
GFS to slow its timing as we near the arrival of synoptic scale
systems. However the Canadian has supported this fropa when the
ECMWF didn`t even have a front. So will not dismiss the earlier
start time possibility. The best instability will of course be
pre-frontal, and the grids already reflect this with the best
chance of thunder late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.
After that, decrease to isolated or slgt chc during the day
Sunday. Again the chance of rain is highest during the frontal
passage Sunday. Chances really fall off Sunday night with dry and
cooler conditions arriving early next week. In fact by mid week we
could be below normal for temperatures...will monitor this
closely as grids do not currently reflect this at this time. As we
just witnessed the blend is not capturing the outbreak of colder
air this time of season.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday. A few wisps of
cirrus are possible through the period, but skies should be mainly
clear. Patchy evaporation/steam fog is possible once again late
tonight mainly in closer proximity to rivers and lakes. For the
TAFs, this would impact primarily KCGI. With high pressure east of
the area, near calm winds tonight will pick up from the south
generally under 10 knots on Wednesday. A few gusts to 15 knots are
possible in the west by afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...RJP



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