Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 220732
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
232 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will keep the
area dry through the short term. Some high clouds at times. Light
winds. Used MOS and persistence for temps. Areas of fog early this
a.m. We expected it again tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

The extended forecast period through late Sunday has been fairly
consistent the last few days, so there is high forecast confidence
that most locations outside of extreme western sections of Southeast
Missouri and Southwest Illinois will remain dry into early Monday.

Beyond that time, forecast confidence goes down locally, regionally,
and nationally, as the medium range model envelope of solutions
dramatically changes every 1-2 model runs.  The highly meridional
blocking pattern advertised the past two days appears to be
undergoing extreme baroclinic variations, especially within the
Central Plains trough.  The GFS seems to hold with a deep trough
with a northern stream low along and north of the U.S. Canadian
border, while the ECMWF/Canadian generate variations of a northern
and southern stream circulations embedded within the longitudinal
trough. Frankly, even the ensemble solutions are not helpful.

The main concern is that is still a lot of potential for further
deepening of the trough along the west U.S. further south along the
California coast. Satellite imagery trends still suggest that a
further southward extension of the trough and energy is possible
into the weekend. With all that energy in place and given the
consistency of the ECMWF (and to some degree the Canadian model)
that past couple of days, prefer a slower, eastward progress of
convective activity through the middle of next week versus the GFS.
Have attempted to slow the eastward progression of PoP/Weather
through the WFO PAH forecast area through next week, pushing the
primary chances through the area by next Wednesday.  The regional
initialized model blends return some PoP and Weather back into the
area by Thursday, but have extremely low forecast confidence for
weather during this time period. Kept some mention mainly for
collaborative purposes.

The uncertainty in the mid-week forecast dis play havoc a little
with wind, dewpoint, cloud cover, and temperature forecasts.
Attempted to blend as much as possible to generate a reasonable
solution given the PoP/Weather uncertainty.

KES

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Areas of fog again early this morning, variable vsbys. Otherwise
just a few high clouds with light winds.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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