Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
142 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Short term convective event from remnant MCS has pushed most
storms south of FA at this writing, including outflow boundaries.
It will take awhile for atmosphere to recharge, since it has been
turned over, and by then, we`ll be near the eclipse of the peak
heating, so anticipate only isolated to widely scattered storms
rest of pm. Similarly, with regard to Heat Index, don`t anticipate
an extreme recharge, although already on periphery of best
rain/convection we have triple digit heat running, and that`s
possible again before end of day.

Weekend looks the same as it has been, as the slowly retrograding
High pressure system aloft builds over the Southwest, and surface
High pressure keeps the heat/humidity in place over us for at
least a couple more days. Daily storm chances will be about the
only relief, with high PW`s producing locally heavy rains at
times, along with an isolated wind gust from stronger storms.
Overall, the SPC svr risk remains General for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Medium confidence in the extended.

The heat should be ongoing at the start of the extended with some
relief during the week albeit small. Slightly lower temperatures are
expected due to cloud cover and daily convection. The mid or upper
level high across the the southern half of the country will split in
response to a mid and upper level shortwave moving through the great
lakes area early next week. This shortwave will have a surface
reflection as a cold front and will dive into forecast area Monday.
This will be the focus for an increase in thunderstorm activity. In
addition it will increase the chance of strong to severe storms as
well. The front will lift back north of the area as warm front
Tuesday keeping the threat of thunderstorms in the forecast as we
warm sector. After Tuesday we will have at least daily chances for
isolated or scattered storms mainly due to heating and any outflow
boundaries in the area. If this coincides with perturbation in the
flow aloft...stronger storms or even overnight storms will be
possible. As we near the end of the week the models are bringing
in a much stronger short wave with an associated surface front
thus highest pops in day 6/7. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with any storms as PW`s running around 1.5". As we have seen this
past week an inch of rain in thirty minutes has been common with
the storms with isolated flash flooding as well as downbursts.


Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Restrictions to CIGS/VSBYS in pm convection are winding down, with
mainly VFR flight rules the remainder of the day. Overnight,
patchy fog may restrict to IFR in fog prone locales (KCGI) and
MVFR elsewhere. Tmrw, diurnal heating will develop scattered MVFR
bases by mid morning with convective potential as we go into the
heat of the day.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-

IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>009.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ010>022.


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