Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 201750 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Rain will keep spreading over the area today as developing surface Low
pressure rides northeastward along an inverted trof/boundary that
stretches across and just south/east of the PAH FA. Models show
elevated instability sneaking/nosing in across our southeastern
counties still, like last night, so we include a slight chance of
a thunderstorm there, esp as the Low lifts northeast across the
Tennessee valley later today.

Heaviest qpf/highest pops will thus be southeast, tapering to
lesser pops north/west across area with time, but all should see
some wet weather at some point today.

Pops wind down west to east tonight as the low tracks off to the
east, but we do retain a troffy pattern that could linger an
isolated shower even into the early weekend (Saturday). We`ve
precluded pop mention for now but wouldnt be shocked to see a few
echoes Saturday diurnally esp, but pops less than 14 for this

Cloud/rain muted 60s today yield to 70s tmrw with sunshine, with
50s for lows continuing.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

A sharp ridge will be over the PAH forecast area at the beginning of
the extended forecast period, providing warm, clear, and dry
conditions through nightfall Monday.

After that, the medium range models remain in good overall agreement
that the ridge aloft will be suppressed by an expanding western
CONUS longwave trof. By Monday night, the low level winds will have
returned to the south over the PAH forecast area, helping to
increase moisture a modest amount in the lower trop, but not
excessively so. Meanwhile, a warm advection regime will set up, with
difficult-to-time shortwaves in the mid/upper flow generating
clusters of shower and tstm activity starting early Tuesday.
Currently, the models do not necessarily agree on the finer details
of the position and intensity of a particular mid level shortwave in
the central Plains moving toward the Great Lakes, but it appears
that Wednesday/Wednesday night will be the best time interval for
the highest PoPs and QPF for us. This feature should have some
semblance of a surface reflection, and should help focus lift ahead
and to the south of it.

By Thursday (Day 7), slight ridging aloft may help to suppress
vertical motion in the mid/upper levels, possibly suppressing deep
moist convection somewhat. There shouldn`t be anything to assist
with low level focus for lift. Therefore, there is somewhat of a
drop-off in PoPs and cloud cover in the forecast for Day 7.

Expect slightly above average temperatures through the extended


Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Shower activity possible at KOWB/KEVV early along with MVFR
cigs and/or vsbys. Beyond that sprinkles/drizzle a small
possibility at all sites this evening. VFR conditions expected to
prevail at KCGI/KPAH through the period, however MVFR cigs and/or vsbys
expected to continue at KOWB/KEVV due to lingering deeper moisture
there. Isolated thunder chances continue to be primarily
south/east of terminals this afternoon. Winds AOB 10 knots out of
the north northeast gradually back around to the north northwest
by the end of the period.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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