Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 081201
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
555 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The leading edge of a much colder air mass was pushing just east
of the forecast area early this morning. In the upper levels, a
deep area of low pressure was positioned over the Great Lakes
region. This low is forecast to push south into the Ohio Valley
over the next 24 to 36 hours as a blast of Arctic air wraps around
on the west side of the low. As a result, temperatures today will
fall through early morning--then should remain nearly steady or
continue a slow fall into the afternoon. Northwest winds will be
quite strong, with sustained readings of 15 to 20 mph and gusts as
high as 30 mph.

Moisture wrapping around the back side of the low will result in
scattered to numerous snow showers through the day. Across the
southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky, a mix of rain or
snow is possible early on. But even there, temperatures by the
latter half of the morning should be cold enough for light snow.
The chance of snow showers will continue across most of the area
tonight, then gradually taper off from west to east on Tuesday.
Gradual clearing from west to east should follow Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Overall, precipitation is forecast to be rather light, though
some bursts of moderate snow are certainly possible from time to
time. Any accumulation should be relatively minor and confined to
portions of southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, and western
Kentucky. As much as an inch is certainly possible over eastern
portions of the area. However, given the low moisture content and
wind-driven nature of this light powdery snow, we do not expect
much impact at this time.

Temperatures will remain bitterly cold through the short term.
In fact, highs are only forecast in the 20s across much of the
area Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should drop into
the teens. With a persistent northwest wind, wind chill readings
by daybreak Wednesday are forecast from 5 below to 5 above zero.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Much of the long term will continue to be categorized by a cold
weather regime as one Canadian high after another plunges southeast
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley region. Will need to keep an eye on
a possible area of low pressure in between the high pressure systems
that could pass through the region Thu night or Friday, but right
now it looks as though the bigger threat for precip will remain to
the east of our forecast area.  What is seeming a bit more certain
now is that another chunk of cold Canadian air will be in store as
we head into next weekend. Latest 00Z operational GFS and ECMWF
advertise a 1045-1050 mb high pushing southeast toward the region by
Saturday. Writing seems to be on the wall that below normal winter
temps will be sticking around right into the middle of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 600 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Overcast and windy conditions are expected over the next 24 hours
with scattered light snow showers. At KCGI/KPAH, low VFR conditions
are expected through much of the forecast period. However, moderate
bursts of snow shower activity may reduce conditions to MVFR at
times. At KEVV/KOWB, conditions should be primarily MVFR. Northwest
winds around 15 knots will gust as high as 25 to 30 knots.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RJP


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