Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 190713
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
213 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 213 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Surface high pressure centered over our CWA early this morning will
begin to slide off to the east today.

Late tonight into Monday morning an upper level disturbance will
push a cold front across the mid Mississippi valley. With the Gulf
being cut off, moisture will be limited therefore precipitation
chances will be minimal. Models not in the best agreement on whether
any rain will fall across our CWA with the frontal passage. The
NAM12 continues to indicate a dry frontal passage with the remainder
of the models showing a variety of light precipitation scenarios
over all or part of our CWA. The outcome remains to be seen, but if
anything falls, the best chances should be over the northeast third
of our CWA where moisture will be slightly higher. With so much
uncertainty, kept POPS at a minimum Monday morning. Any
precipitation chances should be south and east of our CWA by Monday
afternoon.

In the wake of the front and through the remainder of the short term
period, surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry with slightly below normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Through Thursday surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should
continue to keep the region dry with slightly below normal
temperatures.

Beyond that is where long term models diverge a bit. Both the GFS
and ECMWF show a sharp H5 short wave tracking east southeast across
the western half of the country toward our region. In the process
the ridging over our area gets suppressed somewhat, and with time
both models show the short wave deepening, becoming a closed low,
and moving it southward thereby pinching it off from the main flow
as ridging builds in behind it.

By 12Z Friday the GFS has the low centered over central Arkansas and
the ECMWF has it centered over the Texas/Louisiana border. The GFS
solution generates light QPF over our far western counties Thursday
night and Friday whereas the ECMWF solution keeps all precipitation
chances south and west of our area. Will continue to go with the
Superblend solution which keeps our area dry, at least for the time
being.

Temperatures in the long term will slowly warm to near normal by the
end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Clouds finally showing signs of clearing at KEVV and KOWB, so will
not forecast any ceiling condition to begin the period.

Could see some IFR or lower fog at KCGI, but with the sensor
issues at KCGI we will have no way to monitor. Therefore went with
a "AMD NOT SKED" in the 06Z TAF.

IFR fog possible at KPAH, especially if the temperature drops
into the upper 30s. With the clouds yet to scatter at KEVV and
KOWB, cannot see anything more than a brief period of MVFR fog
right at sunrise there.

As for Sunday, may see a few cu, but high clouds will be
increasing from the west through the day. A light south wind may
eventually mix down by midday and continue into the evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIRE WX...JP
AVIATION...DRS






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