Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 202321
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
621 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Updated for 00z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

The PAH forecast area will remain under the influence of an axis
of high surface pressure and an expansive mid level ridge through
the short term period, meaning dry and unseasonably warm
conditions will continue into the beginnings of fall. Meanwhile,
impulses within the northern stream flow to the north may bring
some high cloudiness to our region from time to time, especially
if robust convection occurs to our north. Surface winds will be
generally light with an easterly component, however winds just off
the surface are progged to turn southerly by Thursday, producing a
modest uptick in dewpoints. Light winds and mostly clear skies
during each overnight period will continue to be conducive to
patchy fog, sometimes dense, especially in southeastern
MO/southern IL.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

High confidence through the weekend. Next week expect a more
unsettled weather pattern or active pattern with less confidence in
timing and placement.

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern for our
area through the upcoming weekend. This will keep us dry and well
above normal with temperatures. Temperatures will start off around
10 degrees above normal Friday, then slowly cool a few degrees as
cloud cover increases late in the weekend, and possibly going
below normal for highs after the cold front passage next week. The
models are in much better agreement with the timing and synoptic
scenario. The 12z TUE GFS is a little faster and stronger with the
frontal passage Monday...while the 00z Tue ECMWF continues to be
slower with the front, almost stalling it out as it moves into the
region. One thing the models do have in common is that they still
seem to push the front arrival time later with each run. That`s
why the confidence starts to decline next week, especially with
the timing. But they do agree with pushing it through next week
with a significant change in temperatures. The ECMWF stalls the
front over us, keeping rain chances for most of next week, while
the GFS pushes through and upper level ridging dries us out by mid
week. Again low confidence in next week`s forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Under high pressure at the surface, and ridging aloft, aviators
should expect light winds through the 24 hr TAF period, quite
variable in direction especially tonight, with a generally
easterly component tomorrow but still below 10 kts. VFR
conditions can be expected during the daylight hours, however
vsbys may be restricted to IFR/LIFR by fog during the overnight
hrs, mainly over southern IL, southeastern MO, and adjacent parts
of western KY.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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