Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 260806
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
206 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

With the surface high pressure ridge sliding across the Tennessee
valley early this morning, we see cold start of day temps in the
20s, which is not actually unusual for this time of year, just
unusual for us lately. The eastward shift of the High today means
return flow southerlies develop once again, and start a transition
to warm and moist air advection that will lead to a chance of
pcpn, including thunderstorms, returning to the forecast sooner
than later.

Abundant sunshine today will help high temperatures climb toward
seasonal norms in or close to the lower 50s. Surface dew points
remaining in the 20s will help bottom out afternoon relative
humidity in the 30s percentile, with some 20s possible in our
southeast. Winds won`t be as strong as yesterday, but may reach
into the teens at times, heightening the fire danger for the
afternoon hours.

Warming and moistening of the atmos column will continue through
the remainder of the short term forecast. Surface dew points surge
toward 40F tonight, and approach 50F by the end of the day Monday.
This destabilizing of the column thru warm/moist air advection and
isentropic upglide leads to elevated instability parameters
supportive of thunder inclusion working in from the south
beginning Monday night. We extend the thunder chance to all but
the I-64 corridor by Tuesday morning, basically where surface dew
points are in the 50s.

SPC outlooks a 15 percent chance of severe for the Tuesday-
Tuesday night time frame, as we see 0-1KM MU CAPES reach into the
1000-1500 J/KG range. We broaden our thunder and overall PoP
chance during this time frame to capture the trending of the
increasingly warm/moist/unstable airmass, as dew points surge
toward and into the 60s, along/ahead of a cold front that takes
shape and makes its approach from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Model continuity has improved for the extended...so confidence is
better for next week.

The flow aloft will be out of the southwest and aid in the arrival
of warmer and moist air ahead of an approaching warm front from
the southwest. By Tuesday we will be in the warm sector as the
front lifts north of the area. This has resulted in the chance for
thunderstorms no later than Tuesday afternoon. The best chance of
storms and significant rainfall amounts will come Tuesday night
as a cold approaches from the northwest. Some storms could be
strong and possibly severe. The best chance of strong storms will
along and south of US highway 60 across SEMO and the Jackson
Purchase. Then along and south of the West KY parkway through the
Pennyrile. An upper level trough will rotate through the area
Wednesday night, kicking the front well east of the area with
much cooler dry air in its wake. Prior to the cold front
temperatures could soar to near 70 by Tuesday then falling back to
near normal by Friday. So warm and rainy early in the week then
cool and dry later part and through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Satellite and Obs show Clear skies/light winds early this pre
dawn morning underneath surface High pressure ridging across the
Tennessee valley. The ridge will slide east during the day today,
allowing return flow southerlies to develop. Time/height cross
sections clearly indicate we`ll see warm air advection clouds
activating in the mid and upper levels of the trop, with VFR CIGS
the rule for much of the day. This moisture works its way down the
column during the planning period/overnight portion of the
forecast, with MOS guidance suggesting flight restricted CIGS
appearing after midnight (KCGI/KPAH) and toward Monday morning
(KEVV/KOWB).

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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