Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 272333
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
633 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Current thinking is to let the FFA expire. Cluster of storms near
MEM has warming tops and may move east of current watch area if it
does hold together. MCS along the gulf coast should keep
development of additional storms in AR/MO at a minimum. We are
very moist with PW AOA 1.5 inches. May be a different story by
morning.

Updated aviation discussion (see below).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Fairly high confidence that shower/thunderstorm chances will
be decreasing as we head through the short term period. However,
may need to deal with another round of two of storms over se
MO/far sw IL tonight and Saturday as very deep, moist air mass
remains in place, and weak mid level short waves eject nne within
the nearly stationary ssw flow aloft. However, as parent H50 low
pressure system lifts slowly ne into the upper Midwest and western
Great Lakes by later Saturday night into Sunday, the flow aloft
should become more west-east oriented and weaken. Thus, looking
for no more than isolated activity Sunday, mainly during the heat
of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

After a rather tranquil and very warm start to the week, moist sw
flow aloft regime may become established once again, leading to
and increase in shower/storm chances as we head in the mid week
time frame. Storm chances once again will be highly dependent on
meso features and weak mid lvl disturbances, which of course are
almost impossible to time that far out in the forecast. Will once
again need to monitor for locally heavy rain potential as this
pattern develops.

Main model differences toward the end of the long term lie with
the timing of the next cold frontal passage. Current decision was
to lean closer to the latest (more consistent) ECMWF and its
ensemble mean forecast, which bring the front through much sooner
than the latest GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Current showers and thunderstorms not affecting any TAF sites.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible mainly west of a
Wabash River to LBL line tonight, but no real focus. Attempted to
follow a deeper moisture pool tomorrow with scattered
showers and thunderstorms moving from west to east across the
region. Overall coverage tomorrow is questionable so went with
VCSH/VCTS most sites.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ080-084-085-
     088>090-092>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>006.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...PS



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