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000
FXUS63 KPAH 130347
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1047 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weekend ahead with highs ranging from the mid 70s to
  lower 80s. The above normal temperatures continue much of
  next week with most days reaching 80.

- Active weather pattern sets up next week, with near daily
  chances for showers and thunderstorms. The highest chances
  appear to be late Tuesday into Tuesday night and again on
  Thursday or Thursday night. Severe storms may be possible with
  both of these systems.

- Significant cool-down appears increasingly likely next weekend
  (April 19-21). This may mean highs only in the 50s for a few
  days and lows possibly falling into the 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The large upper level trough over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
will gradually lift northeast giving way to broad scale upper level
ridging across the central CONUS this weekend. At the surface, high
pressure will slide across the region tonight and become centered
across the Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a surface low
develops in the Northern Plains, leading to a southerly wind
developing across our region. The gradient will be strongest on
Sunday, as the surface low moves eastward across the Great Lakes.
This will result in southwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph across our
cwa.

While the weekend looks largely dry, we can`t completely ignore the
weak signal present on Sunday. Moisture return is fairly limited,
but may be enough in combination with a weak ripple aloft to
generate some light shower activity. The best lift associated with
the surface low and frontal boundary remain well north/northeast of
our region. The net result for our region may just be an increase in
cloud cover. The NBM generated some slight PoPs across mainly
northern portions of the region which seemed reasonable.

On Monday, a 500mb low will push eastward across the Rockies. At the
surface, lee cyclogenesis occurs in eastern Colorado. This system
will lift northeastward with the surface low moving across the Mid-
Missouri Valley and into the Upper Midwest through Wednesday
morning. Ensemble and deterministic models are in reasonable
agreement keeping the best moisture/instability west of our cwa
until after 00z. If current timing holds, then our main window for
thunderstorms would be during the evening and overnight, potentially
even lingering into Wednesday (at least for west Kentucky). Deep
layer shear is certainly quite strong. The overall synoptic setup
would favor some degree of severe thunderstorms either in or
somewhere close by our region. Not much has changed over the past 24
hours. Still just something to monitor at this point and see how it
evolves as we head into early next week.

Beyond the first system, most guidance suggests a secondary
shortwave and cold front moving through our area sometime Thursday
into Thursday night. There likely would be a healthy return surge of
moisture associated with it, with dewpoints once again in the mid
60s possibly. Guidance actually suggests instability may be greater
with this system compared to the Tuesday system. While wind fields
through the column don`t appear as strong, they would still be more
than sufficient for severe thunderstorm potential.

Ensemble and deterministic guidance is suggesting a rather
pronounced cool-down during the April 19-21 time-frame. 850mb temps
are modeled to drop to around -5C. Translating this down to the
surface would likely yield high temperatures remaining in the 50s
for a few days and overnight lows falling into the 30s. It`s a bit
too far out to assess the frost or freeze potential, but there is
certainly some concern for it.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions expected through this TAF issuance as high
pressure builds across the Quad State. Gusty winds will diminish
after sunset this evening due to reduced mixing. The pressure
gradient will be much weaker Saturday, which should keep winds
fairly light through the day. A temperature inversion will set
up Saturday evening into Saturday night allowing for stronger
winds just off the surface, leading to LLWS at all the TAF sites
after sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...