Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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610
FXUS63 KPAH 261736
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAF`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

A southeastern CONUS high will continue to have a suppressing
effect on shower and tstm activity in our region, i.e., limiting
the coverage and strength of it in the short term.

That said, a weak cold front will be in the area today before
washing out, offering some source of lift. At the same time, a
surge of deeper moisture from the Gulf region is shown by the
models to kick in early today on the western fringe of the PAH
forecast area ahead of northern stream mid level shortwave
energy. Through Saturday, moisture aloft will continue to flow to
the northeast over a retreating dome of higher surface pressures.

Today, this should result in the development of scattered showers
and tstms, primarily in the western counties, by early afternoon
when the convective temp is reached. By Early Saturday, with a
more southerly low level fetch, and better mid level winds,
shower and tstm activity is expected to be more numerous,
especially in southern IL and adjacent parts of southeastern MO
and southwestern IN. As the shortwave energy departs Saturday
evening, the partially diurnal convection should diminish quickly.
The latter half of the weekend will have fewer clouds and a
limited chance of something lighting up mainly in the Evansville
Tri-State region.

Temps should make it to around 90 today, and Saturday in most areas,
with a slight uptick Sunday with more insolation. Afternoon heat
indices of around 100 can be expected through the weekend, mainly
in southern and eastern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Below average confidence in the long term due to model discrepancies.

The long term forecast will continue to be dependent on the strength
and position of a dirty H5 ridge that fluctuates back and forth
across our CWA through most of the period. As a result, precipitation
chances will be rather small and be more diurnal in nature
through Wednesday with coverage mainly dependent on the location
of small scale/mesoscale focusing mechanisms such as outflow
boundaries.

Starting Wednesday night the ridge is suppressed to the south a bit
allowing for better flow aloft and the approach of a back door cold
front. The front is forecast to drop southward into our CWA on
Thursday which will increase precipitation chances through the end
of the period. Models not in good agreement on the position and
strength of the ridge so forecast will likely have to be adjusted
with time.

Temperatures will remain normal to slightly above normal through the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Convection over SEMO and S IL will gradually develop eastward this
afternoon, likely affecting KCGI and possibly even KPAH by late
afternoon. A few showers possible even up toward KEVV but too low
to mention at this time. Convection should largely decrease this
evening/overnight before a disturbance kicks off more SHRA/TSRA by
Saturday morning especially over northern counties. This activity
may affect KEVV and possibly KOWB. Will monitor and update if
needed as the time gets closer. Otherwise still a possibility at
MVFR vsbys toward sunrise Saturday due to fog. Winds will mostly
be light and variable but with generally more of a southeasterly
component to them thru the period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SP



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