Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 250443 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1143 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue over our area
through tonight. Upper low currently situated to our southeast over
Georgia will continue moving east. With light surface winds and
mainly clear skies overnight, included mention of fog in far
southern Pennyrile region toward morning. This is where guidance has
been hinting at best fog potential and matches up well with
neighboring offices. Tomorrow surface low pressure develops over
Kansas, and enhances the pressure gradient across mainly the western
half to two thirds of the area. This results in gusty southerly
winds up around 25 mph in some locales of southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois. The southerly flow will allow warmer
temperatures with readings in the upper 70s/around 80. Dry
conditions are expected through Tuesday evening.

Included slight chance PoPs in west for warm advection precip
overnight Tues night as both 12z GFS and NAM hinting at this. A
shortwave trough dives into the Southern Plains and becomes
negatively tilted by Wednesday night as it moves across our area.
Model soundings have been consistent in showing a strong capping
inversion that may inhibit much in the way of convection during the
day on Wednesday. Chances will increase quickly as we head into the
evening hours as the sfc cold front moves in. With bulk shear of 50-
60 kts, dewpoints into the low to mid 60s, and at least modest
instability, portions of the area could see severe storms on
Wednesday evening. Best potential is over southeast MO where SPC Day
3 has a slight risk in place. Marginal risk extends east thru much
of southern IL and far western KY. Models aren`t in complete
agreement on the evolution of the surface low, which would
inevitably have an impact on the strength and placement of
convective activity. Thus it would be wise to monitor later
forecasts as this situation becomes better resolved.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Forecast confidence is pretty high that we will be in a mild and
rather wet pattern, but confidence in the day to day details of PoPs
is moderate at best.

Most of the 12Z guidance is keeping some showers or possibly some
thunderstorms farther west across our region into Thursday morning.
Heading into Thursday night the ECMWF continues to bring another
disturbance through the area, while the GFS and GEM keep more of a
shortwave ridge over us. Will have some small pops over the south
and west overnight Thursday night.

The models have trended wetter heading into the weekend, beginning
with warm advection/warm frontal passage sometime Friday into
Saturday morning. We probably have too much PoP through this period,
so expect them to become focused over a 12 hour period as we head
through the week.

The 12Z models have trended faster with the storm system this
weekend, which makes it difficult to dry any area out over the
weekend. The models bring the system out with a positive tilt, so it
would not figure to come out very fast, which could result in
widespread heavy rainfall somewhere in our vicinity. Still think
that much, if not all, of the area could be warm sectored by
Saturday afternoon and possibly into Sunday, especially in the east.
There is definitely a wide range of possibilities this weekend.
Tried to keep the PoPs from categorical levels, but it was not easy
given the 12Z guidance. Also, cannot rule out severe weather later
in the weekend when the cold front comes through.


Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

With the exception of MVFR vsbys at KEVV/KOWB between 08-12Z, VFR
conditions expected at all sites through the period. Light and
variable winds will pick up out of the south AOB 10 knots with
gusts up to 15 knots possible after 14-15Z, then drop back to AOB
10 knots after 00Z.




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