Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 151141

641 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Issued at 628 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Updated near near term (today) to increase pops fofr light precip
into the likely category over portions of se MO. Warm advection
precip has become more robust during the early morning. Latest
HRRR now picking up on this, and brings the light rains into much
of se MO this morning. Portions of srn IL, sw IN and wrn KY may
even get in on the act later this morning and afternoon as the
warm advection shifts farther east.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Fairly high confidence in the overall short term pattern. The
gradual warm up will continue on today as winds finally shift more
southwesterly ahead of an advancing weak cold front. Highs in the
upper half of the 70s to near 80 will be commonplace, despite
increasing mid/upper clouds. The aforementioned weak front will
move se into region later today and this evening. Still looks to
be very little low lvl convergence and mid lvl forcing/ascent
associated with the front. Thus, will go no higher that slight chc
of light showers at this time along and just behind the frontal

Models are a bit quicker in clearing clouds in the wake of the
front Tuesday. Southern areas will be last to clear, but still
should see return to sun in the afternoon. High pressure will
settle into the upper Ohio Valley once again Tuesday night and
Wednesday. However, a weak mid level impulse will likely dive se
within the broad nw flow regime, and could spawn some sct shower
activity around the western periphery of the high Wednesday
afternoon or evening. This would mainly affect areas west of the
MS River, namely the foothills and Bootheel region of se MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Seasonably warm and dry conditions are expected through most of the
long term period as the upper level flow pattern deamplifies. Later
in the weekend...a mid level shortwave and associated cold front
will likely reach the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys.
Model variability is very high regarding the timing...strength...and
track of the late weekend system.

As far as the daily details...
Thursday will be the coolest day of the long term period due to the
lingering effects of the eastern U.S. upper level trough. Surface
high pressure over the Great Lakes region will maintain an east to
northeast flow of relatively cool and dry air. Deeper moisture and
possibly some warm advection showers are forecast to remain just
west of the Ozark foothills.

On Friday...the low level flow will become southerly as the surface
high moves east of the Appalachians. A mid level shortwave ridge
will ensure seasonably warm and dry conditions.

On Saturday...a mid level shortwave trough will advance east from
the central Plains...with an associated cold front reaching northern
Missouri late in the day. There is still good model agreement that
pre frontal convection will hold off until Saturday night.

On Sunday...the cold front is likely to cross the Lower Ohio Valley
and southeast Missouri. There is a good chance of thunderstorms as
the front moves through a moist and moderately unstable air mass.
Pre-frontal low level winds are forecast to veer and weaken...which
will limit the potential for organized convection. The stronger mid
level winds are forecast to lag behind the frontal boundary.


Issued at 1144 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Compared to the 00z Monday TAF issuance, a more aggressive stance
was taken on generating VFR ceilings for each of the sites for the
06z Monday TAFs. Also added a late period low probability mention
of showers for KCGI.

The short range guidance has been more positive in depicting the
trajectory of moisture through the area. Although lift will be
somewhat marginal, anticipate that there will be enough saturation
for scattered to broken clouds, especially at KEVV and KOWB.




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