Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 020447
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT.

THE H5 LOW/TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE REGION FOR MANY DAYS NOW IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE...ALBEIT
VERY SLOWLY...TO THE EAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING THE
LOW/TROUGH WAS CENTERED OVER OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF THE LOW/TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST EAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.

IN THE MEANTIME THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...WEAK LIFT...AND
MINIMAL INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA TODAY (GENERALLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS). THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF OUR CWA
BY SUNDOWN.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF THE PERIOD WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AN H5 RIDGE AXIS BISECTED
OUR CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE STRENGTH AND SUBSEQUENT
BREAKDOWN OF SAID RIDGE WILL DETERMINE WHAT TIME FRAME
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE BACK INTO OUR AREA.

THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE BUT THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE AND BRING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WHICH GENERATE LIGHT QPF STARTING
FRIDAY. WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALL MODELS BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS SATURDAY
NIGHT DRY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW SMALL PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR AREA...SO AS A COMPROMISE AND TO BETTER BLEND WITH THE
NEIGHBORS...THREW IN A 15 POP.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE...BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

EVEN WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KCGI/KPAH. CIGS EXPECTED SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 18Z TO 22Z, WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED. CALM TO
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO AROUND
6 KTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST



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