Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211840
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
140 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 134 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

High pressure aloft will continue to strengthen and build its dome
overtop the MS valley thru the short term period of the forecast.
Diurnal destabilization resulting in late day PoPs look to be rang
around the High center, and thereby be just outside the bounds of
the PAH FA.

While an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out altogether,
H7 temps do rise to at/above 10C thru Saturday, effectively
offering a cap to convective chances. We`ll carry a silent 10 for
periphery pops that may have some upper energy associated that
would allow a temporary piercing of the cap.

The primary result will be the continuation of excessive heat and
humidity. Each afternoon will see the Heat Index average 100 to
105, with isolated locales potentially exceeding 105 at times. The
advisory continues thru the short term and has been extended beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The main concern during the long term period will be the extended
duration of potentially hazardous heat. A deep layer subtropical
high will be anchored over the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi
Valleys late in the weekend into early next week.

As far as the daily details...
Sunday into Monday...the center of the high /850 to 500 mb/ is
forecast to be nearly overhead. The models forecast some
strengthening of the high...with 500 mb heights near 594 dm by
Monday. Heat indices will likely continue to meet or exceed advisory
thresholds...requiring an eventual extension of headlines.

Tuesday into Wednesday...very little change is indicated regarding
the location of the upper ridge. However...the low level anticyclone
is forecast to shift eastward. Due to weaker capping and less
subsidence...there should be a little more cloudiness and isolated
diurnal convection. This moisture may hold daytime highs down a bit.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Patchy pre dawn fog remains possible each night, as does diurnally
driven cu bases in the upper MVFR to lower VFR range. Light swlys
prevail thru the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$






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