Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
244 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Real time analysis shows light northerlies prevail across the FA,
with generally 50s dew points at the surface, and pm temps pushing
80 ish for highs. Visible satellite imagery shows show cu field
predominantly in the northeastern ptns FA, where a patch of
925-850 mb condensation pressure deficits from 30-50 mb existed.
Scattered high clouds impacted southern ptns FA, underneath the
surface High pressure centered over northern MO.

The models all pick up on these real time features, including the
pocket of driest surface dew points in the upper 40s in southeast
IA, nearer the High center.

We`ll see but subtle pattern changes in the next 72 hours. H5
heights will bottom out about 20 DM lower by tmrw, and that
as well as clearing night time skies should allow for temps to
cool near dew points, down into the 50s for overnight Lows pretty
much region-wide.

Tmrw, while the surface High center washes out, we see light
northerlies in the lower trop slightly veer, and 850 mb temps warm
maybe a couple degrees by Friday, as H5 heights rebound maybe 30
DM by cob Friday. That means Highs around 80 Thursday will repeat
Friday, with maybe a degree or two added on, particularly for
locations further south and west in the FA.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For Saturday into Sunday, a weak upper level ridge will be over the
PAH forecast area.  Surface high pressure over eastern Canada and
remnants of Harvey over southern Texas will keep our region in
generally easterly flow through the weekend, and this will help keep
temperatures below seasonal normals.  Highs will be in the lower
80s, with lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

As we get into early next week, GFS and the Canadian show an upper
level trof moving into our region.  ECMWF is a bit slower with this
feature, but with gradually increasing moisture, included slight to
low chances of showers and a few storms Sunday night, with
increasing chances on Monday.  This trof will linger over our area
into mid week, which will in turn linger scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms into mid week.  The main question during this time
period is where will the remnants of Harvey track and in what time
frame.  At this point, next week looks to be unsettled, and
timing/precip chance forecast confidence will take a couple of days
to increase.  One thing that looks promising is this pattern will
keep our temperatures below normal.


Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Diurnally fueled mid pm cu bases were most numerous, though still
scattered, for our northeastern terminals (KEVV/KOWB). Starting
out mid morning around 4K FT AGL, they`re maxing around 5K FT AGL
in the mid to late pm. A pocket of 30-50 mb pressure deficit
values from 925-850 mb supports this development better there in
the northeast than at KCGI and KPAH, where 100mb+ cpd`s exist.
This will effectively repeat tmrw, so another day of diurnally
driven probably scattered bases starting out about 500 ft AGL
lower will be best chanced at KEVV/KOWB. The only other flight
concern may see a pocket or two of late night/early pre dawn Fog
offering vsby restrictions, notably at fog prone KCGI. Otherwise,
tranquil wx conditions are the rule under the influence of the
post frontal passage surface high pressure system to the north that
retains firm influence across the Ohio river valley.




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