Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 310516
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1116 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Primary near-short range meteorological concerns include
temperatures...qpf and thunderstorm intensity. Forecast district
currently graced by generally above seasonal late July
temperatures and isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity(primarily over the western 2/3rds of the CWFA).

Recent real-time data...PV analysis...computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that adequate atmospheric
moisture(as noted by by precipitable water values basically
running in the 100% to 125% of average ranges) interacting with
upper disturbances(per recent PV analysis) will allow isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity to continue into
tonight and then again on Sunday with some of the stronger storms
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding
issues as well as hail and gusty wind potential. As always...WFO
Pueblo will continue to monitor closely.

Finally...above seasonal late July maximum and minimum
temperatures are expected to continue over the majority of the
forecast district during the next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

.Monday through Wednesday. A couple of troughs will pass over the
northern Rockies with flow aloft becoming more from the west to
southwest. This flow aloft will bring increasing monsoon moisture
into the region with better chances for convection over and near
the mountains. A lee trough will develop over the plains which
will keep low level flow predominately from the west. The lee
trough will tend to keep the more moist low level air east of the
CWA, and it will limit the amount of convection and heavier rain
on the plains. Airmass over the region will remain warm with
temperatures near to modestly above average.

.Thursday through Saturday...Monsoon plume will continue over the
area with middle and upper level moisture flowing into the
region. A trough to our north will continue moving east with high
pressure developing over the high plains. GFS and EC suggest a
cold front will move southward over the eastern plains. Upslope
flow behind the front could bring an increase in low level
moisture to the plains and eastern mountains during this period.
General trend is for an increase in the amount of convection with
a greater chance for heavy downpours associated with the
convection. The increased moisture on the plains could increase
the chances for heavier rain and convection on the plains as well.
Specifics will depend on subtle features which are difficult to
forecast this far out. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH HIGH
CLOUDINESS DECREASING AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. ON SUNDAY...A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF
WILL KEEP WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND
21-22Z. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THESE MAY BE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE FOR KCOS
AND KPUB VS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. WILL PUT VCTS IN THE TERMINALS
FOR NOW...WITH MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED KALS AND KCOS. -KT

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KT



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