Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 242055
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
255 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT WITH PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES BEING
TEMPERATURES AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARYING DEGREES OF PRIMARILY HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...SOME PRIMARILY LOCALIZED HIGHER TERRAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

LATEST REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY AS DRY UPPER ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS WELL AS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.  WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR LATE APRIL SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WHILE ABOVE LATE APRIL SEASONAL AVERAGE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FRI NIGHT A STRONG UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WEST
COAST...AND AN UPR LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AZ
BY 18Z SAT. THE UPR TROF WL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE DAY
AND IS FORECAST TO REACH TO 4 CORNERS BY 00Z SUN AND THE TRACK
EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN CO BORDER SAT NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR THE
AREA ON SAT OVR MOST OF THE AREA.  THE SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE DRY...WITH RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT...RESULTING
IN CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.  WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FROM 18Z SAT TO 02Z SUN. FOR ALL OF THE SERN CO PLAINS.  THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY MAY HAVE A PERIOD IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WL BE REACHED...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACRS THE AREA...RAISING THE DEW POINTS.

AS THE UPR TROF MOVES TOWARD THE AREA ON SAT...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND THEN INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN SPREAD ACRS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND OVR
THE EASTERN MTS. TEMPS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY WARM DURING THE DAY
SAT...SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL MAINLY BE OVR THE HYR PEAKS. SAT
NIGHT...PCPN CONTINUES OVR THE MTS AS THE UPR LOW TRACKS EASTWARD
ALONG THE SRN CO BORDER...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
EARLY SUN MORNING.  COLDER AIR WL BE SPREADING ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA SAT NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS PROBABLY LOWERING TO AROUND OR A
LITTLE LOWER THAN 6000 FT. THEN WHEN THE UPR LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE
ERN CO BORDER EARLY SUN...PCPN WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. ALSO ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...STRONG NW
TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPS WL BE COLD ENOUGH OVR THE PALMER
DVD THAT THERE WL BE SNOW.  THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND SNOW
COULD LEAD TO DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS OVR NRN EL PASO COUNTY
AND THE PALMER DVD SUN MORNING. ON SUNDAY THE UPR LOW THEN IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND PCPN SPREADS EASTWARD
ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BY 00Z MON THE NAM HAS THE UPR LOW CENTER SW OF
KHLC...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE IT FARTHER NORTH INTO WRN NE.
AS A RESULT...THE GFS AND EC HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS OVR THE SERN CO
PLAINS THAN THE NAM.  PCPN WL BE DECREASING OVR WRN AREAS AND THE
MTNS DURING THE DAY SUN.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE CONTDVD FROM SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUN...SO FOR NOW WL ISSUE A WINTER WX WATCH FOR
THE HYR ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD.

UNSETTLED WX IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID OR LATE WEEK AS
THE UPR LOW SITS OVR THE PLAINS STATES.  THIS WL LEAD TO BREEZY AND
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS THE AREA AND BRINGING SOME PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DRY AND MILD TO WARM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ222-226>237.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR COZ058-060-061-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



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