Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 031017
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
417 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

WITH AN UPR TROF OVR CA AND THE PAC NW TODAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WL BE
FOUND OVER CO.  THE FORECAST MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY TODAY...BUT SOME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
OVR PORTIONS OF LAKE...NRN TELLER AND NRN EL PASO COUNTIES IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE LATEST NAM HAS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING FROM THE PALMER DVD TO CHEYENNE COUNTY AT 00Z
THU. CAPE VALUES TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 3000 J/KG AND HIGHER.  IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD INCREASE.  WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY IN THE EARLY EVENING...THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING AT THAT TIME.

THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THRU THE SERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
THE NAM SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY AND HIGH DEW POINTS BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...BUT NOT SURE THAT
CONVECTION WL BREAK OUT.  THE NAM SHOWS SOME LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING
WITH THE LOW STRATUS...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE SERN PLAINS DRY AND THE
WRF AND ARW SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DRY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIF COAST SLOWLY PUSHES AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.  AT THE SFC...WED EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA...PUSHES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH
SOME PATCHY STRATUS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH BOUNDARY POSSIBLE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY
50 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ALOFT (+12 TO
+16C) UNDER THE PASSING RIDGE...LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING STORM DEVELOPMENT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ALONG
THE PALMER DVD AND ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...THERE COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AND
ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
COULD AGAIN SEND MOISTURE BACK SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND EXPECTED LIMITED
CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN TODAY...WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
SOUTHERN CALIF UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM AN EARLY TROPICAL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC PROGGED TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS...ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS....SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES OF CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAN. THERE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS WELL...WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT. MORE CLOUDS AND
STORMS SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES IN LATEST MODELS WITH LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF WEAKENING GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ON SUNDAY.
PASSING SHORT WAVE COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PASSING
SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...LOOKS TO SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
AND GOOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.  IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT TONIGHT...LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH KCOS SEEING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS.  KPUB MIGHT SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME... SO WL GO WITH LOW VFR CIGS IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.
KALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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