Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190946
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
346 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few mountain rain/snow showers this afternoon and evening,
  and warming temperatures across the Plains.

- Showers and weak thunderstorms with gusty winds are expected for
  Wednesday, especially over our far southeastern plains.

- Above normal temperatures and mostly quiet weather expected
  Thursday through Saturday, with a pattern shift possible later
  this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Currently...an upper low continues to spin over Arizona early this
morning and will continue to influence our weather through tonight.
Temperatures are currently running in the 30s to lower 40s across the
Plains, with 20s in the San Luis Valley.  Winds are light across the
region with the exception of Baca County where southwesterly winds
have been running near 15 mph.

Today and tonight...the upper level low will continue to spin over
the Desert Southwest through tonight.  Weak energy is forecast to
lift northward out of New Mexico into southwestern Colorado this
afternoon and evening.  This will lead to a few rain and snow
showers over the Mountains this afternoon, which will dissipate
around sunset.  There may be enough instability, SBCAPE values are
progged to be around 200 j/kg, to produce a couple lightning
strikes.  A couple of wind gusts to near 40 mph may also be possible
over the Mountains.  Across the Plains, dry conditions are forecast
to prevail.  Temperatures will warm nicely through the 50s and 60s,
even with a weak frontal boundary pushing south across the Plains.
After sunset this evening, dry conditions are expected as we head
into Wednesday morning.  Overnight lows will fall mainly int the 30s
and 40s across the Plains, and 20s over the San Luis Valley.
Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Wednesday..

Models bring a low across New Mexico on Wednesday, which will help
to increase rain, snow, and thunderstorm chances across the area for
Wednesday afternoon. Snow is expected above 9,000ft, with rain
showers and weak thunderstorms possible for lower elevations. Though
convection is expected to be isolated to widely scattered, gusty
outflows will also be possible with any showers and storms that
manage to develop on Wednesday, especially over our far southeastern
plains. Forecast soundings for Springfield show inverted V profiles
with DCAPE values around 600 J/Kg. SPC has general thunder over our
CWA, mainly south of highway 50, with their marginal outlook
remaining southeast of our forecast area where better moisture will
be available. Daytime highs will be around 5 degrees above normal
for most locations, with temperatures reaching into the 60s across
our plains and 50s over our mountain valleys.

Thursday through Saturday..

The departing low leaves us in west-northwesterly flow for Thursday,
with highs reaching into the upper 60s and low 70s on our plains.
Thursday looks to be the driest day of the period, with slight
chances for mountain showers returning over the Continental Divide
for both Friday and Saturday. Daytime highs remain above normal for
Friday and Saturday as well under mostly sunny skies. Winds begin to
increase on Saturday as our next weather system approaches, though
relative humidity values look to remain above critical fire weather
thresholds.

Sunday Onwards..

Ensembles are in agreement with a trough and associated cool down
coming in later this weekend and into the beginning of next week,
though exact timing and precip chances are still largely unknown.
For now, EPS members seem to progress the system through a bit
faster, and also seem to bring subtropical jet energy further north
which could effect our forecast area. GEFS members are slower,
colder, and more amplified for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024

VFR conditions at all three terminals through the next 24 hours with
light, diurnally driven winds.  A few mid and high clouds will
impact KALS and KCOS from late afternoon into this evening.
Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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