Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 290716
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
116 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 113 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Starting to clear out some of the western counties from the
Severe thunderstorm watch. Have cleared El Paso for now...but
suspect in the next hour...will be able to clear at least Pueblo
and Las Animas counties...and perhaps Crowley and Otero counties.
Threat should continue to shift southeastward over the next couple
hours with most of the activity out of the area by 12z. -KT

UPDATE Issued at 941 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for all of the Plains
until 3 am for potential squall line developing over the fcst area
late this evening into the early morning hours.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Increased POPS generally east of a line from PUB to LHX down to
KSPD based on MCS that is expected to develop and move sse down
the hi plains of CO/w KS later this eve. Some svr wx
pssbl...especially over Kiowa and Prowers counties. Svr threat
will be mainly wind. Lots of CAPE still on the plains with latest
SPC meso anal indicating 3000 j/kg mixed cape. Deep shear is also
modest. /Hodanish

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

he upper level high center will be along the western CO border
tonight, and is expected to shift a bit eastward on Wed. Tonight a
disturbance will move thru western NE and western KS and will brush
eastern CO.  Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue over and near the mountains into this evening, with the
potential for some isolated storms over the some of the sern plains.
There is a chance for storms, associated with that upper
disturbance, to move thru the far sern plains later tonight.  The
12Z NAM keeps the storms east of the state, but the HRRR has storms
moving south thru the sern CO plains.  For now, will go with just
some isold pops late tonight near the eastern CO border.  There will
also be the potential for storms to become severe in areas near
the eastern border tonight.

In the wake of that disturbance, a front wl bring low level eastern
flow to sern CO Wed.  Showers and thunderstorms will again develop
over and near the higher terrain by late morning.  Light, southeast
upr flow is expected to result in slow moving storms that generally
stay close to the higher terrain.  Locally heavy rainfall will be a
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Wednesday Night-Friday...A series of upper level disturbances
will begin to flatten the ridge over the Great Basin Wednesday
evening with weak westerly zonal flow developing across the CWA
through Friday evening. Showers and thunderstorms across the
Central Mtns and Pikes Peak Massif could continue overnight
Wednesday as upper waves provide lift in the absence of sfc
heating.

Attention then turns to Thursday. Models continue to show signs
pointing towards an increased probability for heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding across the SE plains. A boundary associated
with a lee side cyclone is expected to drop down across the plains
Thursday morning, with upslope flow developing behind the front.
Deep moisture will funnel into the area behind the front as PWAT and
Td values increase to 1.3-1.7" and 60-65F respectively. Fairly
deep upslope flow between the sfc and 700 mb, wet-bulb zero
heights near 13kft, and CAPE values near 1000-1500 J/KG
(initially) point towards the potential for heavy rainfall
associated with stronger storm cores. Storms will first form over
the Mtns during the morning hours before moving across the plains
during the early afternoon hours. With shear increasing near 35-40
knots in the afternoon a few convective clusters could form across
the plains. A few severe storms will be possible with heavy
rainfall, hail up to 1 inch in diameter, and gusty winds up to 60
mph being the primary storm threats. SPC day3 outlook has the
plains under the marginal category Thursday afternoon.

Active weather will continue Friday. Upslope flow is expected to
continue with Td values hanging around the mid to upper-50s across
the plains. Upper level impulses moving in from the west will fire
off another round of convection, with a few stronger to marginally
severe storms possible during the afternoon hours across the plains.
With deeper moisture hanging on, the heavy rainfall threat will
continue through the late evening hours. Burn scars will need to be
monitored closely Thur/Fri. Temperatures are expected to run on the
cooler side with highs in the low to mid-80s across the plains
Thur/Fri. ~Lukinbeal

Upper trough lags back over Colorado on Saturday with low level
moist upslope flow persisting. Area will likely see one more round
of fairly widespread convection Sat afternoon/evening, though
threat of heavy rain may begin to diminish as mid level moisture
plume is gradually shunted off to the southeast by late in the
day. Upper trough and deep moisture then move east of the region
on Sun, leading to less in the way of convection, though still
enough recycled moisture around to keep at least low pops in place
most locations. Max temps Sat will remain below seasonal averages
with clouds and precip, then warm to around normal on Sun with
more sun and slowly building heights. Drier/hotter weather then
returns early next week with Pacific NW upper trough moving
onshore and upper high center sliding slowly eastward through the
southern U.S. Probably enough residual moisture around for
isolated mainly mtn convection both days, but with sw flow aloft
bringing in much drier air, storms will likely be more wind than
rain over all but the highest peaks. Max temps both Mon/Tue should
climb back into the mid/upper 90s over the plains, with 70s/80s
mountains and high valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1121 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Isolated tsra will be possible for the next couple of hours at
kcos and kpub...otherwise dry air is fcst to move into the region
and low clouds are not likely tomorrow morning. Simulations show
the dry air remaining over the region through most of
tomorrow...with some high based convection possible late in the
afternoon. Breezy conditions will be possible the next couple of
hours...and then the winds will weaken. Generally light westerly
winds will be possible most of the day tomorrow...becoming
northerly late in the day.

kals will be vfr next 24h with light winds. An isold -tsra may
occur tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PETERSEN/Lukinbeal
AVIATION...HODANISH



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