Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 290536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CANCELED THE REST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235 FOR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...INCLUDING KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT AND BACA COUNTIES.

.UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CANCELED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235 FOR LAS ANIMAS...OTERO AND
CROWLEY COUNTIES. WILL KEEP IT FOR KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT AND BACA
COUNTIES WITH LINE OF STORMS ONGOING...BUT WILL LIKELY CANCEL
BEFORE 02Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CURRENTLY...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION IN EASTERN LAS ANIMAS/BACA
COUNTIES TO BE FAIRLY LONG LIVED AS CAPES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG
COMPENSATE FOR MODEST 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. FARTHER
WEST...LOW LEVELS HAVE DRIED CONSIDERABLY WITH MOUNTAIN/I-25
DEWPOINTS FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S...KEEPING CAPES BELOW 1000 J/KG
AND STORMS RATHER HIGH BASED AND WEAK. WILL STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL INTO THE EVENING WITH STRONGEST CELLS
COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...MOST HI-RES MODELS TAKE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION EASTWARD
INTO KS THIS EVENING...LEAVING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND ACROSS
COLORADO AFTER 03Z-05Z. HAVE TAPERED POPS OFF DURING THE
EVENING...KEEPING JUST SOME LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD
MORNING...THOUGH MODELS ARE RATHER SPARSE WITH PRECIP IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...GENERATING ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS AROUND
SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEAKLY UPSLOPE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE IN
A NARROW RIBBON WEST OF I-25. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INITIALLY...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN MODEST
INSTABILITY...THOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE ALONG THE NM
BORDER COULD PRODUCE A STRONGER STORM ACROSS BACA/LAS ANIMAS
COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. FARTHER WEST...REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS WILL SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION...SIMILAR TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD COOL A FEW DEGF MOST LOCATIONS WITH
CLOUDS/CONVECTION/SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH MODEST ENSEMBLE SPREADS LEADING TO HIGHER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH WITH
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
COLORADO. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER FLASH FLOODING AND MAINSTEM
RIVER/STREAM FLOODING REMAINS ELEVATED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
SOUTH AND CLEAR THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH MID
70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY
DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A DRYLINE OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CAP WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER AND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER THE DRYLINE BOUNDARY SETS UP. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

PASSING UPPER TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE REST OF NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CIGS AT COS AND PUB
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING EAST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
TERMINALS...BEST CHANCES AT COS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW



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