Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 021053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES(WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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