Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 311036
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH KPUB AND KLAA NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AS OF 330 AM.
ALTHOUGH THE FREEZE THIS MORNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE LONG
ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO BE A SEASON ENDING KILLING
FREEZE...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH OF THE AREA WILL HIT FREEZING TO
WARRANT MAINTAINING THE FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
TODAY WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY.  SFC WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WEST SIDE OF
SFC HIGH DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL ADVECT
COOLER AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS VS THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER AS A
RESULT.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE
WHEN COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.  MTN TOPS
SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS RESULT...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH FIRST
SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP AROUND 02-03Z ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN HIGH RES MODELS.  BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SEEMS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND
11 KFT OVERNIGHT...AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS COULD
PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRES...AND THE
MOSQUITO AND LA GARITA RANGES TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
LEE TROFFING TO THE LEE OF THE SE MTS.  IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES
MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE LOWER SE MTS...THEN WARM OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE IMPACT SYSTEM WILL
HAVE ON THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY
HARD FREEZE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WESTERN LOCATIONS)
AS WELL AS UNSEASONABLY WARM EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AS TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. GRADIENT
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THEN AN UPPER SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO FROM
LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
INITIALLY EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY SURGE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT MONDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN SECTIONS FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE NOTED OVER
THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS COLORADO AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW.

WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED THIS
WEEKEND(ESPECIALLY SATURDAY) AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

FINALLY...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS AT TIMES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME STRATUS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAINING CONFINED TO
AREAS FROM KLAA TO EADS AND EASTWARD.  WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KCOS...KALS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AROUND KLHX AND EASTWARD.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT FOR THE TAF SITES...THOUGH MTN TOP
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 20-30 KTS AND WEST WINDS 15-25
KTS WILL START TO SPREAD DOWN THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS
AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AFTER 06Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ085-086-089-
093-095>098.

&&

$$



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