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000
FXUS65 KPUB 092212
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
312 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

CURRENTLY...WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ALLOWED MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TO CLEAR BY LATE MORNING...THOUGH
STRATUS/FOG/FLURRIES HAVE REDEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AS LIFT FROM SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH SATURATE THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. AREA OF STRATUS ALONG THE
NM BORDER ALSO BEGINNING TO CREEP BACK NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF BACA COUNTY AT 22Z.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PATCHY LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
PERSISTS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES/-SHSN NOTED...MAINLY OVER THE SAN
JUANS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS EVENING...AS WEAK EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SNOW COVER
ALLOW AIR MASS TO COOL AND SATURATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...WHERE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS STRONGEST. MODELS
SUGGEST AREAS ADJACENT TO THE MOUNTAINS/WEST OF I-25 COULD CLEAR
AFTER 06Z AS WESTERLY FLOW DEEPENS...THOUGH MOST OF THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH SUNRISE. FARTHER
WEST...SAN LUIS VALLEY WAS SLOW TO BREAK THE INVERSION TODAY...AND
SUSPECT STRATUS/FOG WILL REDEVELOP HERE AS WELL. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW TEMPS
PROBLEMATIC WITH STRATUS/FOG AROUND...WHILE CURRENT VERY LOW DEW
POINTS SUGGEST FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD GET FAIRLY COLD QUICKLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...GIVEN CURRENT COLDER
THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS AND LOW DEW POINTS...UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS A FEW
DEGREES MANY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS PRESSURES ON THE
PLAINS FALL AHEAD OF APPROACHING SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT
FOG AND STRATUS TO CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY ALONG I-25...BUT HANG ON
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM KPUB
EASTWARD. THUS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS ON THE PLAINS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...THOUGH AGAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE WETTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
AMOUNTS ARE RATHER LIGHT...EVEN WITH THAT MODEL.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THOSE AREAS GENERALLY AN INCH OR SO.

FRIDAY WILL BE AN IN BETWEEN DAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS STORM. WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO...SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN
OUR AREA...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE THROUGH
COLORADO...BRINGING SNOW TO MAINLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR A TIME AS
THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY BEHIND THIS WEAK FRONT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART...LEAVING BEHIND ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO
MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE KCOS TAF ALL DAY...AS STRATUS
AND FOG DISAPPEARED LATE MORNING ONLY TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
DOUBT WE`LL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
BEFORE CIGS THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER 02Z...WITH IFR TO BRIEFLY LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER
09Z...SUSPECT STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY CLEAR BY 12Z WED...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. AT KPUB...EXPECT A RAPID
REAPPEARANCE OF STRATUS AND FOG AFTER SUNSET...WITH SLOWER CLEARING
THAN KCOS WED MORNING AS FOG LINGERS IN THE ARKANSAS VALLEY UNTIL
18Z. AT KALS...MUCH THE SAME FORECAST...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING
FOG DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...PERSISTING THROUGH MID-MORNING WED.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

10/51