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000
FXUS65 KPUB 220528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...ISOLATED STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND RIDGES...TEMPS
EDGING ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER COLORADO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY UNDER THE RIDGE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND RIDGES THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 MPH.

AFTER A DAY OF TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY.  A PRETTY NICE DAY ON TAP FOR
SOUTHERN COLORADO. LW

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A STAGNANT
PATTERN FEATURING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOL UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS PRINTING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HOW MUCH
IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS IS STILL IN QUESTION...INSTABILITY IS
WEAK AND MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION
AS WELL. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP MIXING
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CONUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENCOMPASSES THE ROCKIES. THE
MAIN ISSUES WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. EACH AFTERNOON...MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING A DRYLINE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF VARY WITH DRYLINE POSITION WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
DAILY AFTERNOON DRYLINE ACTIVITY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR GRILLING ACTIVITIES
PLANNED FOR MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO MID
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM APPROXIMATELY 18Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF LIVED
LOW PROBABILITY MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KCOS. IN ADDITION... THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ224.

&&

$$