Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 212215
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.  THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW THAT WL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD WELL
TO THE SOUTH OVR SRN AZ AND NRN MEXICO...WHILE A WEAK UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS CO THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.   WESTERLY BREEZES TONIGHT NEAR THE
ERN MOUNTAINS...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS MILD ACRS THE ADJACENT
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

ON SAT A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM WL BE MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS. IT WL
BE A BIT BREEZY FROM THE S TO SW IN SOME LOCATIONS SAT
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MSTR WL INCREASE OVR THE CENTRAL CO MTNS
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS TO THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
EVENING...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SPREADING SOUTH
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED LIFT AND DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE REGION...SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
TURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION NORTHWESTERLY...AND SHOULD BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AN END OVER THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN
RANGES...BUT KEEP PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS FAVORED. AS
FAR AS WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...WENT WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. ALL TOLD...10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THIS AREA...WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE AROUND 4 TO 8
INCHES. OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...THE SHORTER DURATION AND LESS
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO 4 TO 8 INCHES.

ACROSS THE PLAINS...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AROUND 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW AS THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
WITH FRONT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION
TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE CUTS IT OFF. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LIGHT
SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY LOWER 60S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN HIGH VARIABILITY IN
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
SOLUTION.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.  SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BREEZY S TO SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28


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