Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 232206
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN INTO OK AND TX THIS AFTN...AS CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS
TODAY WARMED INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40F ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND INTO
THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE ROCKY MT REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE
UPPER JET WILL MOVE ALONG WITH IT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT. WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS DECOUPLING TONIGHT...LOOK FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10F FOR THE PLAINS...AND BELOW
ZERO FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER LOCATIONS. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS THIS EVE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS. TOMORROW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TRANSITION DAY AS
COLORADO AWAITS THE NEXT INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PROMPTING A NICE ONE DAY WARM
UP WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50F. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

...MORE SNOW FOR THE CONTDVD ON XMAS...AND POSSIBLY FOR PLAINS
XMAS NITE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...

...MUCH COLDER WX COMING IN NEXT WEEK...

SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
SNOW SHOULD REACH THE CONTDVD SUNRISE CHRISTMAS AND WORK ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE PLAINS LATE
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS LIKELY STARTING MONDAY.

CHRISTMAS EVE...

SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A LEE TROUGH TO RESIDE ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER AND
THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS XMAS
EVENING. BANANA BELT REGION MAY NOT GET BELOW FREEZING THIS NIGHT.

TOWARDS SUNRISE...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SNOW WILL BEGIN AOA SUNRISE ALONG THE
CONTDVD.

CHRISTMAS DAY...

OVER THE PLAINS I ANTICIPATE A RATHER MILD DAY. GUSTY W-SW WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 MOST
OF THE PLAINS.

WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS MAY BE QUITE STRONG THIS
DAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AS 40 TO 50 MPH 700 MB WINDS
MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA. SOME OF THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL WORK THEIR
WAY DOWN ONTO THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF MOSCA PASS.

SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. APPEARS
SOUTHWEST MTNS WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW XMAS DAY AS FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD OROGRAPHICS AND QG FORCING.
CURRENT GRIDD HAVE BETWEEN 12-18" OF SNOW IN THEM FOR THE CONTDVD
REGION. BASED ON THIS...ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE CONTDVD
REGION FROM 12Z-25 THROUGH 12Z-26.

CHRISTMAS NITE...

FOR THE CONTDVD REGION...AS TROUGH MOVES EAST...FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON XMAS DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE IS A
BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
TROUGH. EC IS THE WEAKEST AS IT DOES NOT SHIFT 700 MB WINDS TO A
NE DIRECTION XMAS NITE. LATEST 18Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND HAS NE WINDS AT 700 MB REACHING DOWN TO THE
SPANISH PEAKS. GFS IS IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW...LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE NAM SOLUTION AS THE EC`S 700 MB WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
CORRECT GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING-OFF 500 MB CIRCULATION
ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.

WHAT THIS ALL LIKELY MEANS IS THAT THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL LIKELY
SEE SNOW XMAS NITE. A BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH DOWN THE
PLAINS AND BE MOST INTENSE IN THE REGION ALONG THE EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE S MTNS/I-25 CORRIDOR AREA. IF NAM GUIDANCE PANS
OUT...WE MAY NEED WINTER WX HILITES IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND S
MTNS/ADJACENT PLAINS REGION XMAS NITE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...

TROUGHIENESS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. MODELS START TO DISAGREE
AS GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH WHILE THE EC IS MUCH
SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM. LIKEWISE...SHOWERY PRECIP WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

SAT INTO NEXT WEEK...

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO
COLORADO. HOWEVER...EC SHOWS A FEW WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVES MOVING
DOWN IN THE NW FLOW WHILE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THESE WELL DEFINED
DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL HAVE RAMIFICATIONS REGARDING POPS. OBVIOUSLY
EC SHOWS MORE PRECIP WHILE GFS IS DRIER. FOR NOW KEPT POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN AND PALMER DIVIDE. MAX TEMPS MOST IF NOT
ALL AREAS ON MON AND TUE MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS AT
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE ON THE
WANE THROUGH THE EVE. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR COZ058-060-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE


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