Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291754
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BLOWING DUST SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE/WEB CAMS OVER FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...EAST OF LA JUNTA. PER WEB CAMS...VISIBILITIES NOT ALL
THAT BAD...MAYBE DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN PLACES...MOSTLY BETTER THAN
THAT. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO FORECASTS OUT THAT WAY. ALSO LOADED
LATEST OBSERVATION SET INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW


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