Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1117 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017


A windshift boundary was roughly along the US-50 corridor early this
afternoon. A few high based showers and isold tsra were developing
along and behind the line. CAPE values across the eastern plains are
significantly less than what they were this time yesterday, with
values around 1000 MLCAPE along the immediate CO?KS border. Shear is
also less. nonetheless, enough instability is in place that a watch
may be issued over the eastern regions later today as per latest

Isold high based showers were also noted across the central mtns,
possibly being forced by a weak wave moving across the mtns.

Rest of today...

Thunderstorms are expected to increase a bit in intensity as they
move into the more unstable airmass across the far eastern plains.
The potential exists for a few of these storms to become severe. the
greatest threat will be over far eastern se CO, generally east of a
line from Eads to Trinidad.

Over the remainder of the region, there will be a slight chance of a
passing -tsra, capable of producing locally gusty winds and light
(if any) rain.


Storms should end relatively early this evening as they move east
into KS. Skies will become mostly clear with lows in the 60s across
the plains and 40s and 50s in the valleys.


We will see a bit better chance of severe storms, especially later
in the day, as a cool front moves south across the region. The front
should reach the Palmer Divide around noontime and should reach the
US-50 corridor by mid to late afternoon. Although a few storms will
be possible tomorrow afternoon, believe best chance of severe storms
will be after 6 pm as better upslope and shear develop over the
plains. Temps tomorrow will once again be hot, but given the timing
of the front, may be a bit cooler than todays max temps.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Thursday night-Friday night...Weak to moderate west to northwest
flow aloft continues the State, with the center of large upper high
across southern Arizona and southern New Mexico, and another
embedded wave moving through the stronger flow aloft across the
Northern Tier of States. The stronger wave moving across the
northern Rockies Thursday, sends a front across the eastern
Plains through the day Thursday, with low level moisture pooling
along and behind the front. This front will be the focus for
storms across eastern Colorado Thursday evening and night, as it
pushes south and west across all of the southeastern plains into
Friday morning. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across northern and eastern portions of the area, generally north
and east of a Colorado Springs to Lamar line, where the best shear
will be located. Morning stratus and easterly upslope flow look
to keep the eastern plains too stable on Friday, though with the
upslope flow, will likely see some storms develop across the
eastern mountains and immediate adjacent plains Friday afternoon
and evening. The clouds and upslope flow will also keep
temperatures across eastern Colorado much cooler on Friday, with
highs mainly in the 70s and 80s across the lower elevations and
mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain

Saturday-Sunday...Models still differ on details through the
weekend, though they do agree on a secondary surge of cooler air
backing into eastern Colorado Saturday afternoon and night, with
another surge of low level moisture, especially across the
southern portion of the plains and into the southeastern
mountains. This will keep better chances of afternoon showers and
storms across southern portions of the area through the weekend.
Temperatures look to stay below seasonal levels through the
weekend, with highs generally in the 60s and 70s.

Monday-Wednesday...Upper level ridging rebuilds across the Desert SW
and into the Great Basin into early next week, and then looks to
flatten across the Rockies for the middle portions of next west,
with stronger westerly flow continuing across the Northern Tier.
This will allow for a slow warming and drying trend across the area,
though there will be enough moisture to keep chances of afternoon
and evening showers and storms across the area, most notable across
the higher terrain.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

VFR conditions expected overnight with winds under 10 kts. A cold
front will slip into southeast CO on Thursday bringing a wind
shift out of the north at COS. This boundary will stall near KCOS
during the day making winds a tricky forecast for the KCOS
terminal. By afternoon winds should shift around from the
southeast behind the front with thunderstorms developing between
18-19z at KCOS. This should help push the front southward into the
PUB area between 20-21z. Winds could gust to 30 kts and if
thunderstorms impact the terminals...higher gusts to around 45 kts
will be possible. Cigs and VIS could briefly drop into the MVFR
category if a stronger storm impacts either terminal.
Thunderstorms should clear to the east of the I-25 corridor with
gusty northeast winds shifting to the east Thursday night.
Widespread IFR cigs will develop just beyond the 24 hour TAF
window for both KCOS and KPUB.

KALS will also see VCTS Thursday afternoon though -TSRA coverage
will be less widespread. These should shift winds from the west in
the afternoon around 15 kts and brief VFR cigs will be possible.
These should clear out by 02z with light winds. -KT




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