Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 162058
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
258 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Quiet Weather Pattern...

Quiet, fall weather over the region next 24 hours with temperatures
running a bit above average.  Upper high pressure building in from
the west will keep a dry west to northwest flow across the region.
Except for a few high clouds at times, especially in the lee of the
mountains, skies will be mostly clear.  No precipitation in the
forecast through Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Models in better agreement with the weekend quick moving storm
system over the weekend. The weather leading up to the weekend
will be pleasant for mid October across southern Colorado.

Tuesday night through Thursday...dry westerly flow will prevail
across the region through Thursday. Temperatures will remain mild
with mid 70s to lower 80s across the Eastern Plains. Not
anticipating any precipitation at this time through Thursday.

Friday through Monday...both the GFS and ECMWF have finally
converged on a solution for a quick moving trough moving across
the region over the weekend. There are still a few model
differences, with the ECMWF deeper with the system, while the GFS
is a bit further north. Friday looks to be windy as southwest flow
increases ahead of the storm system. There could be fire weather
concerns Friday afternoon for portions of the area. Showers will
likely move into the Continental Divide Friday afternoon or
evening, increasing in coverage Saturday as the trough swings
across Colorado. Given the latest storm tracks, there will likely
be little of any precipitation across the lower elevations of the
Plains. Snow levels will likely remain high above 10 kft. The
trough will quickly shift east by Sunday with drier conditions
moving into the area. These will prevail through Monday. After a
brief cool down over the weekend, temperatures will return to the
70s for early next week.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Dry west to northwest flow across the flight area next 24 hours. VFR
expected. This includes the KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW


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