Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 040405
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
905 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED TO UPGRADE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STILL IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION PART OF THE STORM WHICH IS CAUSING HAVOC WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. JET INDUCED BANDED SNOW
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY AND STREAK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR IS TOO SHALLOW AND LIFT IS
TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. STARTING TO
SEE EVIDENCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN CDOT
CAMS ALONG I-25...AND SUSPECT THIS IS ALSO HAPPENING ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER...THOUGH NETWORK OF CAMERAS AND SFC OBS MUCH MORE
SPARSE DOWN THAT WAY. THINGS GETTING PRETTY ICY IN THE PUEBLO
AREA...ON SIDEWALKS AND COLD SURFACES...AND THINK UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL.
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE SECONDARY SURGE OF THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEAST CO
AFTER 06Z. HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CO. THIS DOESN`T SEEM UNREASONABLE AS
DIV-Q FIELDS SHOW MAIN FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA NOW AND WILL BE
PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROF AXIS...AND SECONDARY WAVE
STAYS MAINLY UP TO THE NORTH. STILL...AS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE DEEPENS
BEHIND THE FRONT...SUSPECT THAT SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WETS AND
SANGRES SHOULD FAIR WELL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY KEEPING ADVISORIES UP.
AND ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF ICY ROADS WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS TOMORROW MORNING...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SUSPECT THAT NORTHERN
PORTIONS (SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PERHAPS PUEBLO COUNTIES) MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THAT...BUT SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY ALSO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS REFINE TIMING AS NEW RUNS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN. -KT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND PUEBLO AND PUEBLO WEST.
RAP SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH/COLD
ENOUGH LAYER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IF SNOW BAND TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...WE COULD GET SOME SEEDER
FEEDER EFFECTS WHICH WILL QUICKLY CONVERT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. RAP INDICATES TEMPERATURES FINALLY DROP WITHIN THE SATURATED
LAYER TO -10C OR COLDER SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ONCE THE
SECONDARY COLD SURGE MOVES IN...IT WILL BE AN ABRUPT CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW. THEREFORE...JUST A NARROW WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE
THIS EVENING TO CONTEND WITH. MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UPGRADE FOR PUEBLO COUNTY ASSOC WITH ICING. -KT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS FREMONT AND
TELLER COUNTY. BOTH HRRR AND RAP13 DEPICT THE BAND OF SNOW OUT
THERE NOW LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOC
WITH UPGLIDE. THIS BAND COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS.  -KT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

HAD TO MAKE A CORRECTION TO THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. /HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

...SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SNOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. OTHER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALONG THE S MTNS...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT
THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR THESE REGIONS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS A 2NDRY SURGE OF COLD AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS.

ONE AREA OF CONCERN I HAVE IS OVER FAR SE PLAINS. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
A RATHER HEALTHY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION WHICH
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP QUITE A BIT OF SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE STATE OF CO WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
OCCURRING OVER BACA COUNTY. FOR NOW....HAVE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THIS REGION AND WILL ALERT INCOMING SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
HEAVY SNOW.

I HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNINGS FOR THE C MTNS AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE
SAN JUANS...BUT SHOULD END BY MID EVENING...SO WILL ALLOW THIS
WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM.

COLDER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND THE 2NDRY URGE WILL EVEN
BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS 2NDRY SURGE SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 3 AM AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.

TOMORROW...

RUSH HOUR IS GOING TO BE A MESS OVER THE REGION. STEADY SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS AND ADJ MTNS AFTER
SUNRISE. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH WINDCHILLS RANGING BETWEEN +5F
AND -10F ACROSS THE PLAINS.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE SNOW UNTIL MIDDAY ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASES THE SNOW AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SPANISH PEAKS
REGION/RATON MESA REGION UNTIL AFTERNOON.

THE S SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FAR S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUM SNOW LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OVERALL...

I EXPECT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE PLAINS WITH THIS
EVENT. AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGIONS...AND POSSIBLY BACA
COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL SNOW BAND. THE S MTNS SHOULD SEE 4 TO 10
INCH AMOUNTS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IF DENDRITIC GROWTH IS FAVORABLE...THEN
WE COULD SEE DEEPER AMOUNTS OF FLUFF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SO IT LOOKS AS IF SNOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH WED EVE.
THEREFORE...STAGGERED THE POPS TO SHOW THEM FINALLY DIMINISHING
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SETTLE IN WITH
DOWNWARD FORCING HELPING TO CLEAR THE SKIES...WHICH LEADS TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 5 TO -10 DEG RANGE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US AND HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS A HINT OF FLURRIES OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT...SO INCLUDED THAT IN THE WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR THE 30S ON
THU...40S FRI AND SAT...THEN 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60F FOR SUN THROUGH
TUE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB
AND LAST INTO TOMORROW. THE HEAVIER SNOW FOR BOTH TAF SITES WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.
BLOWING SNOW MAY BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE
SNOW WILL BEGIN AT KCOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AT
PUEBLO LATER TONIGHT.

KALS...VFR UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHICH COULD BRING OCNL IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ059.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ072>075-
079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ083-
085>088-094-099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ081-082-
084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



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