Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
461 FXUS62 KKEY 140820 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 420 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 419 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 It has been a very warm and muggy overnight across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are barely in the lower 80s and dew points are in the mid 70s as of 4 am. The one saving grace is that we have a decent breeze developing as a nocturnal surge is pushing across the Keys this morning. A shallow inversion just off the surface, coupled with deep layered subsidence aloft and dry air, has kept KBYX precipitation echo free. There has been some bouts of strato- cu that have attempted to move off the mainland and across the island chain, but the dry air is making quick work of these as well. .FORECAST... There has been no deviations in the forecast thought process this week. A low level ridge will wax and wane in strength as a series of surface lows push eastward across the CONUS. This will result in winds fluctuating in both speed and direction at times. With that said, the predominant wind will favor a southerly direction through the next 7 days. This will help to keep temperatures and dew points elevated such that we expect some heat related issues this week, especially Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. A combination of near record warmth and dew points in the upper 70s will make for borderline Heat Advisory conditions. Residents this week are urged to limit outdoor activities to the morning and early evening hours, take frequent breaks, stay well hydrated, and seek shade during the hottest parts of the day. Though the low level ridge will flex at times, the mid and upper level ridges will be more of a semi-permanent feature across the Florida Keys. Their proximity to the region, however, means that deep layers of dry air and subsidence will dominate through the next 3-5 days. This will limit rain chances greatly. As of now, the "best" shot at rain may come Wednesday night if convection can fire over Cuba and surge northward, sending out boundaries towards the island chain. At the same time there could be a lingering boundary from a reverse cloud line that may develop during the day on Wednesday. Given the conditional instability already in place, any robust boundary collisions that manage to happen will be capable of producing at least some precipitation. For now, given the large uncertainty will hold PoPs at slight (20 percent). Otherwise, the next best chance will not return until the back half of the weekend and into early next week when an upper level trough sweeps through and potentially settles in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 419 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect. A nocturnal surge developed in the early morning hours and is maintaining fresh southeasterly breezes across the area. These breezes will slacken towards late morning and midday. An area of high pressure will slide further over the western North Atlantic, resulting in generally gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes through Saturday. A series of surface low and surface high pressures will transit through the region such that breezes will fluctuate in strength and direction at times. A threat for isolated thunderstorms will return starting Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 419 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Dry VFR conditions persist at EYW and MTH today with elevated near- surface winds between 10 and 15 kts in the early morning. Occasional gusts near 20 kts will slacken after sunrise at both terminals. Near- surface winds will surge back to 10 to 15 kts tonight with occasional gusts after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 419 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A nocturnal surge this morning is producing breezy conditions across the island chain with 15 to 20 mph being seen at all observation sites. Winds will diminish through the morning and into the afternoon. Dew points will remain elevated such that afternoon min RH values will hold well above 50 percent. A threat for an isolated thunderstorm or two will return starting Wednesday night and carry through the upcoming weekend. "Best" chances (20 percent) look to be Wednesday night and again starting late Sunday. However, there is still much uncertainty given the amount of dry air aloft that will act to suppress any convection that attempts to develop. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2020, the daily record rainfall of 5.73" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 81 92 82 / 0 10 10 20 Marathon 91 81 92 82 / 0 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft for GMZ031>035-042>044- 052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest