Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
784 FXUS62 KKEY 120912 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 512 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 512 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 The remnants of a weak frontal boundary is sliding off the mainland and across the Florida Keys this morning. KBYX radar detects no precipitation anywhere across the region. This does not come as too much surprise as last evening`s sounding revealed a staunch dry layer above the BL. There is just enough moisture and organization to permit clouds to develop but nothing further at this time. Northerly winds are coming down after a nocturnal surge, which was favoring the eastern waters. Temperatures are warm this morning with most locations near 80 degrees. Despite the dry air aloft, dew points are in the mid 70s keep conditions on the muggy side. .FORECAST... Going forward, the aforementioned weak frontal boundary will quickly get washed out as we go through the day today as a surface high pressure slides in from the west. This will allow winds to briefly slacken and become variable before clocking around to the east and southeast overnight as the high moves into the western Atlantic. The combination of the surface high, ridging aloft, and the dry air, will continue to limit rain chances to slight (10 percent) at best, starting tonight. Any showers that manage to develop will have to fend off a relatively deep dry layer. This means that not only will coverage be isolated but shower duration would be short. By Monday night a potent surface low will move into the Central Plains and impinge on the high pressure, which by this point will be dominating the entire Eastern Seaboard. This will lead to a brief uptick in winds Monday night into Tuesday. As the low takes over dominance from the surface, the pressure gradient will slacken across the Florida Keys Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. This will allow for a very quick clocking of winds around the compass. In addition, the weakened pressure gradient will allow for winds to wax and wane and fluctuate in direction until ridging returns towards the end of the week and winds become decidedly southerly again. At the same time, moisture should begin to increase slowly but surely and could support higher end slight chance PoPs (20 percent) for the later half of the forecast period. Otherwise, above normal temperatures look to dominate the next 7 days. && .MARINE... Issued at 512 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Northwest to north gentle breezes persist across much of the Florida Keys coastal waters morning. Winds will continue to clock around the compass today as a weak front dissipates in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. Another high pressure area will slide over the western North Atlantic, resulting in gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes for much of next week. A brief bout of moderate to occasionally fresh breezes are possible Monday night into Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through tomorrow evening. Winds will veer throughout the day from northwest to east- southeast by the end of the TAF period. Near-surface winds will slacken to near 5 knots during the morning but will predominantly remain between 5 and 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 512 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Dry air will limit precipitation chances for the next seven days. With that said, minimum afternoon RH values will hold above 50 percent across the Florida Keys in the short term. Light and at times variable winds this afternoon will promote poor dispersion indices. Poor to fair dispersion indices are expected Monday afternoon with a brief improvement on Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday night, a threat for isolated thunderstorms exist and that threat will continue into the next upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds are generally forecast to remain below 15 mph through the forecast period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1898, the daily record rainfall of 2.58" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 80 90 80 / 0 10 10 10 Marathon 89 80 91 81 / 0 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest