Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
289 FXUS62 KKEY 120230 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Another quiet night is ongoing across the Florida Keys with KBYX not detecting any shower activity through the area. GOES 16 Nighttime Microphysics shows a clear sky through the Keys with hardly any clouds to be found tonight. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s making it feel like summer is already here or very close. A weak front remains draped across South Florida as it continues to only slowly move southward with this front expected to dissipate as it approaches the Keys. A weak low pressure center formed along the front that has spawned a pretty feisty storm off the Miami coastline this evening. Therefore, marine platform observations around the Keys vary. Carysfort was observing southwest to west winds of 15 to 20 knots for much of the late afternoon and evening hours which have since become west and decreased to near 15 knots. The remainder of the Keys are observing west to northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with Sand Key observing 5 to 10 knots. Island Chain communities are observing west to northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z RAOB this evening shows a dry atmosphere with the only layer where there may be some moisture being between 550 to 510 mb. The low to mid levels are dry. The profile does show some instability with CAPE coming in around 1000-1500 J/kg. PWAT measured was 1.33 inches which is just a little below the median for the date so we are dry. We have the instability, but since we still lack a trigger as well as adequate moisture, no forecast changes are needed for this update and the Keys will remain dry overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Key coastal waters. From synopsis, winds will continue to clock around the compass overnight into Sunday as the front approaches and dissipates in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. Another high pressure area will slide over the western North Atlantic, resulting in gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes for much of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF package. However, latest statistical guidance is showing the risk for some periodic MVFR conditions for CIGs towards the early morning hours. Any cloud line during the day will also pose the risk for a couple brief periods of MVFR conditions for CIGs. West to northwest surface winds 10 knots or less this evening will veer to the north overnight creating for a crosswind before continuing to veer to the northeast heading into Sunday afternoon. However, daytime heating on Florida`s mainland may delay the onset of northeast winds for MTH until the evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 89 79 90 / 0 0 10 10 Marathon 79 88 80 90 / 0 0 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest