Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261835
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
235 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024
A narrow high pressure appendage stretches southeast from the
Carolinas to east of the Bahamas. A cold front bisecting the
Florida Panhandle extends to a broad low pressure center in the
Bay of Campeche. The gradient between the high and low pressure
systems supports southeast winds at the Reef, with averages 14 to
17 knots. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid 80s
and dewpoints are in the lower 70s. Skies are mostly sunny and the
KBYX radar is echo free.

.FORECAST...
The forecast for the next seven days features warm, humid, and
fair weather through the short term. The approach of the cold
front Wednesday night will be accompanied by an organized veering
profile with much improved low level moisture. GOES TPW loops
place a slug of 1.5" PW over the Yucatan, which appears to be the
source region for the veering profile Wednesday night. We
introduced thunder and raised rain chances to 20% for Wednesday
night. Thunder chances remain for Thursday morning, and we
continue to highlight 40% rain chances ahead of the frontal
passage Thursday afternoon. The 1 kft winds will peak near 30
knots late Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected Thursday evening through
Friday night. Amazingly, dewpoints will drop back into the 50s on
Friday, which is a welcome blast for late March. A progressive
pattern on the back side of the front will feature a return to
east to southeast breezes and above normal high and low
temperatures. Aside from Wednesday night and Thursday, rain
chances will be near nil.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Breezes will diminish and veer to the southeast then south
tonight through Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front which
will blast into the Keys Thursday afternoon. Expect a period of
strong breezes Thursday afternoon and Thursday night on the back
side of the cold front. Fresh northeasterly breezes on Friday will
diminish and veer to the east then southeast Saturday through
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024
VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both island terminals through
the TAF period. Near surface winds are southeast gusting to near 25
knots. This evening winds will become east to southeast and gusts
will subside to 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  77  84  76  83 /  10   0  20  40
Marathon  76  86  76  84 /  10   0  20  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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