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799
FXUS63 KSGF 250720
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
220 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Generally a mostly clear sky and light wind across the area early
this morning. Fairly muggy with temperatures in the mid 70s and
dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Main short term forecast focus will continue to be with the
heat/potential advisory and isolated to scattered convection.
Another front will bring better convection chances later in the
week and will be the main highlight in the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesd220ay)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Another warm day is in store for the area today with highs back in
the mid 90s for most locations. Afternoon heat index values are
expected to be in the upper 90s to around 104 degrees which will
be below criteria for a heat advisory. Like yesterday, will have a
risk of an isolated thunderstorm(s) which could lead to additional
convection with any strong outflow. No real organized severe
weather risk with little to no shear expected. Any convection
should dissipate by mid to late evening with the loss of daytime
heating.

Wednesday will be similar temperature-wise with highs expected in
the mid 90s. Heat index values from 100 to 105 will be possible
with the highest readings over west central MO into southeast KS.
Will hold off on any headlines at this point as readings just
barely clip the criteria and we are still a day out. There is also
the potential for some afternoon convection northwest of the area
and cloud cover from that may affect afternoon temperatures.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A frontal system will be to our northwest on Wednesday night and
will be the focus for more organized convection over northern and
central MO, possibly across our far northern CWA late Wednesday
night. The front will push into the area on Thursday and through
the area Thursday night with additional thunderstorm chances
possible. This setup looks very similar to what occurred with our
most recent front where central MO had the best rain in the night
and by the time convection regenerated along the front the next
day, it was mainly down in Arkansas. Wherever it does rain
however, it will be heavy with PW values over 2 inches.

The deep moisture will slide to the south of the area on Friday
with a much drier air mass moving into the area Friday night into
the weekend. Temperatures through the weekend and into early next
week will be cooler as well with highs in the 80s expected.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Weak pressure gradient/light winds can
expected for the taf period. Some late night/early morning (10z-
13z) fog will be possible, especially were some rain occurred a
few hours ago. TAFS for KSGF and KBBG are MVFR with fog during
this time frame, otherwise VFR.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA