560
FXUS63 KSGF 240555
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily heat index values in the middle 90s to lower 100s will
  occur across the area each day this week.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening shower and storm
  chances (10-20%) will be possible across portions of the area
  each day through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a summertime high pressure cell
located the eastern US with the Ozarks region on the western
periphery. 12z KSGF sounding measured a moist low level airmass
with a PW value around 1.4in. Still some dry air above 700mb
however its not as dry as previous days. This dry air combined
with around 81j/kg of CINH and a 700mb temp of 10C is putting
a lid on thunderstorm development early this afternoon. The
exception is southeast of Springfield near Oregon and Shannon
counties where mid level temps are slightly cooler (8-9C). This
is also shown nicely in vis satellite with a slightly more
agitated cumulus field southeast of Springfield. Temps have
reached the upper 80s to lower 90s however southerly winds aloft
were mixing down a few 25mph gusts at times. This was also allowing
dewpoints to remain near 70 degrees. Heat index values were
generally in the 93 to 98 degree range.

This Afternoon through Tuesday: A few pulse like showers and
storms will remain possible (10-20% chance) across
Oregon/Shannon counties this afternoon. A low level jet will
develop overnight again well west of the area with showers and
storms across northwest Missouri. This could send some cirrus
down our way overnight into Tuesday however should not cause a
big impact on temps. Mid level temps look similar on Tuesday
however some slightly higher mid level moisture may allow for a
few more pulse like showers and storms. Chances (10-25 percent)
again favoring areas east of Springfield where mid level temps
are coolest.

High temps this afternoon and on Tuesday will likely reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s which is slightly above average for the
time of year, especially up near Rolla/Vichy. Overnight low
temps continue to remain above average as lows are typically in
the middle 60s with lows previously and going forward remaining
in the lower 70s. This is likely contributing to the Heat Risk
output reaching the moderate to major category northeast of
Springfield. Therefore anyone without effective cooling systems
and those working outdoors will need to take proper precautions.
The steady south wind will keep the heat from being as
oppressive as it could be and no Heat Advisory is planned at
this time as daily max heat index values remain at or below 100
degrees in many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Wednesday through the Weekend: Latest ensemble guidance
continues to suggest that the upper level high may slowly move
or expand slightly west Wednesday through Thursday therefore
this could increase mid level temps enough to limit the daily
pulse shower and storm threat. This especially looks to be the
case on Thursday where the NBM has the lowest pops of any day
going forward. Upper level energy does look to slide across the
northern plains this weekend which could allow for the high to
push a little further south. Pops still remain less than 30
percent for the weekend. NBM continues to show very small high
temperature ranges with alot of consistency/confidence in the
upper 80 to lower 90 degree range. Therefore a persistence
forecast likely continues for the end of the week and perhaps
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR through the TAF period. South-southwesterly winds 5-10 kts.
Some scattered high clouds along the periphery of a larger
storm complex in northeast Missouri will become more widespread
through the TAF period, with a scattered low-level cumulus
field developing underneath this afternoon.

There is a low (<30%) chance of short-lived, localized pop-up
showers and thunderstorms across southern Missouri this
afternoon, with relatively higher chances at KSGF and KBBG,
though KJLN does have a non-zero chance as well. Not reflected
in the TAFs because confidence in exactly where each tiny cell
pops up is low and confidence in impacts to TAF sites is even
lower, but afternoon satellite trends will be monitored and
TAFs will be adjusted proactively if vertical development
suggests precip/thunder impacts within the vicinity of a
terminal.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23:
KSGF: 77/2015

June 24:
KSGF: 77/1934

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

June 26:
KSGF: 76/1937

June 27:
KSGF: 76/1934

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Burchfield