Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 231756 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

The battle between dry northeasterly flow and moisture/modest
forcing aloft continues over the southwestern third of the area.
Aside from KGMJ, where light snow has been reported off/on during
the past hour, area ASOS/AWOS have remained snow free with little
in the way of lowering of cloud bases. Pockets of light
snow/flurries will continue to move our way from the west and
there will be a few light snow showers and flurries to deal with
from time to time, but it would appear that any accumulation
potential will be localized and a dusting at best.

UPDATE Issued at 829 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

Several bands of light snow and flurries were moving out of
Northeast Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas this morning.
Locations across northeastern Oklahoma at Ponca City and
Bartlsville were reporting between a mile and a half and three
quarters of a mile visibility in snow. some minor accumulations
up to a half inch were also noted though most areas had just a
dusting.

Have increased snow chances across extreme southeastern Kansas
and Southwest Missouri. Some locations may see up to a half inch
of snow, however the banded nature of the snow on radar may give
some locations accumulating snow and other location a mile away a
dusting, flurries or nothing.

The snow will be fighting low level dry air as well with winds out
of the northeast at the surface. For now the dry air is winning
but like the locations in northeastern Oklahoma, if the snow can
win out even briefly, some minor accumulation will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

High and mid level clouds continue to stream through the skies
over the area along with a cold north wind ushering in an Arctic
airmass. Regional radars continue to show light snow aloft from
time to time this morning. Most of this activity is not reaching
the ground due to dry air as the surface. But slightly enhanced
echos over southern Kansas this morning may work their way into
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this morning with a few
flurries. No accumulations expected. Temperatures are running about
25 degrees below average for late February.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

Light southwesterly winds will return tomorrow and on Wednesday
with a brief warm up but still below average on temperatures for
the middle of the week. All guidance continue to show a fast
moving clipper like system for Wednesday night into early
Thursday. This will bring a chance of light snow area wide with
light accumulations possible.

Temperatures will get very cold again with more Arctic air behind
that front on Thursday. Guidance is still having a hard time on
the end of the week and weekend weather pattern. The cold air in
place by the end of the week will be slow to retreat at the same
time. West to southwest flow in the mid levels will eject some
energy in the flow across the central portions of the country.
Timing...moisture availability...and temperatures will play a big
role for the end of the week on what types of precip we will see.

With this forecast update...will continue to main a broad brush of
precip chances starting Friday through Sunday with some light
wintry weather to start with and eventually warming up to just
cold rain later in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Good fetch of
mid/high level clouds will persist over the area well into
tonight. Meanwhile, at the surface, a ridge of high pressure will
move through and result in light/variable winds. This high shifts
to the east tomorrow and southwesterly flow will quickly develop
(becoming gusty at times).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan





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