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147
FXUS63 KSGF 241201
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
701 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Early this morning...a high amplitude upper level ridge was
located across the Mississippi River valley while a long wave
trough was situated over the Great Basin region with an
associated closed low over southwestern Wyoming.

At the surface...high pressure was located across the
southeastern US while a quasi-stationary frontal boundary was
located from the Mid-Atlantic states across the Ohio Valley into
the Central Plains states. A second cold front was located along
the Front Range of the Rockies.

As the long wave trough continues to move towards the Northern
Plains today...it will begin to push the cold front along the
Rockies eastward. As it does...convection will break out along the
front. At this time...it looks like the better dynamics as well as
the higher PW values will be located north and west of our CWA.

Temperatures once again will be in the mid to upper 80s for this
afternoon with lows tonight in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

As the trough lifts out into the Upper Midwest on Sunday...a piece
of the southern portion will split and close off over northern
Mexico and begin to retrograde westward. Meanwhile...the surface
front begins to pick up speed during the overnight hours on
Saturday and looks like it will clear the CWA by early Sunday
evening. However...moisture will continue to be lifted up and over
the surface front with post-frontal showers continuing through
Monday morning. Do not expect rainfall amounts to be as great as
the higher PW values will be back to the south and west.
Overall...models continue to back off on QPF amounts for this
area.

The passage of the surface front will herald a much cooler and
drier air mass into the area. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the
coolest days of the forecast period with morning lows potentially
dropping into the mid to upper 40s in some areas.

As the long wave trough lifts out of the Great Lakes region
Wednesday into Thursday...the upper level ridge will once again
reestablish itself across the region. By the end of the
week...highs could once again be approaching 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Flight conditions across the region today and into tonight will be
VFR with light southerly winds, similar to the past several days.
A pattern change will bring the potential for some isolated storms
to western Missouri and the Joplin area this evening, however the
chances will be limited at around 30 percent. Otherwise flight
conditions will reamin nice into Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Hatch