Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 140512

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1212 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016

Where you live across the Missouri Ozarks made all the difference
today when it came to clouds vs. sunshine. Areas roughly along
and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Bolivar to Salem, Missouri
line saw sunny skies by afternoon with temperatures warming into
the upper 50s to lower 60s. Areas south of this line saw mainly
cloudy skies with temperatures struggling to warm through the
lower 50s.

While the back edge of these clouds has shown some southward
progress early this afternoon, they will actually begin to return
north by early evening as short wave energy begins to approach
from the west. That wave will also begin to induce low and mid
level isentropic upglide. With weak instability also in place, we
are expecting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to
develop. The best chance for precipitation will occur late tonight
across southern Missouri.

Any showers and thunderstorms will then diminish Friday morning
as that wave pushes east of the region. Surface winds will also
begin to increase out of the southeast marking the beginning of a
big warming trend. While temperatures will be warmer than what we
saw today, there will again be clouds to deal with. Thus, we are
mainly expecting highs in the middle to upper 60s. Areas along and
west of the I-49 corridor may hit the 70 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016

Upper level height rises will then occur into the upcoming
weekend with the Missouri Ozarks being located on the northern
periphery of an upper level ridge. Dry weather is therefore
expected this weekend and early next week with well above normal
temperatures. High temperatures in the 80s are expected from
Sunday through Tuesday, with middle to upper 80s expected on
Monday. Breezy conditions can also be expected for the period with
a fairly tight low level pressure gradient.

Global models then indicate that a trough will dig across the
central United States sometime around the middle of next week.
While timing amongst the models is somewhat variable, confidence
is fairly high in this trough materializing given long wave
charts and global ensembles. Thus, we should see a fairly decent
cold front push through the region sometime around the middle of
next week with returning chances for showers and thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A mix bag of ceilings and weather
will occur in the near term with a disturbance producing scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms over southern MO. MVFR and IFR
ceilings have improved somewhat with the approach of the
disturbance, but most guidance lowers ceilings again somewhat
toward 12z. In general, ceilings should improve gradually late in
the taf period.




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
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