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000
FXUS63 KSGF 132323
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
623 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS STALLED
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING A COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE OZARKS. AFTER HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S...WITH UPPER 50S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN OZARKS.

THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW...THOUGH NOT BEFORE MAKING A PIVOT TO MORE OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATION.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ROUGHLY A 10 DEGREE GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW...THE U.S. 49 CORRIDOR OF
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI TOPPING OUT AROUND
90...WHILE THE EASTERN OZARKS AGAIN SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY TRY
TO FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  I DON`T THINK THE
POTENTIAL IS TERRIBLY GOOD...BUT LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE FOR AREAS FROM COLUMBUS KS TO APPLETON CITY FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FURTHER ON SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.  WITH NO SYNOPTIC SURFACE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A RATHER DISORGANIZED FASHION.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT IS
ABLE TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPS...THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT WAVE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY...AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT
MCV AND/OR REMNANT CONVECTION FROM AN MCS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES INTO THE REGION.  SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WE`LL NEED TO WATCH
THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT IS ABLE TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE
DAY.

BY MONDAY...A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...PERHAPS ALONG
WITH A REMNANT MCV OR TWO...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION.  THIS WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OCCURRING
MONDAY IN RESPONSE.  BY MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE
CWA...AS A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE
OF DAYS OF COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY 5/6
TIMEFRAME...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND SHIFT TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BUT NO AVIATION
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...FOSTER