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000
FXUS63 KSGF 140425
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

A strong cold front will sweep through the region tonight with
unseasonable cold Mon/Mon night. Guidance is continuing to
indicate light precip ahead of the main long wave trough axis over
the Plains Monday. Progged vertical thermal profiles support some wet
snow at many locations from mid morning into the afternoon,
particularly over western and and northern halves of cwfa.
Blustery, cold, and damp sums it up for the day on Monday.

A widespread frost/hard freeze looks likely Mon night with most
guidance dropping temperatures well down into the 20s. A sfc ridge
axis will be over the region by 12z Tue with light winds aiding in
radiational cooling. Freeze watch is out now for Mon night, and the
warning will follow either later today or tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Cold temperatures and a dry air mass will continue into Tuesday.
The sfc ridge axis will shift east of the area late Tue/Tue night.
While a light south to southeast wind will become established over
the area Tue night, the dry air mass will still likely allow
temperatures to drop quickly in the evening and reach down to near
freezing in many areas. Will look at at the possibility of a frost
advisory as that time period draws closer.

Temperatures will moderate somewhat for Wed-Thu. Another shortwave
and sfc low/trough will pass through the region Thu night/early
Fri. Gulf moisture will be greatly limited/modified ahead of this
system with showers/isolate tstms expected.

Looks like a more amplified upper level pattern may become
established over the CONUS by late in the week with a sharp upper
level ridge axis setting up over the eastern Rockies or Plains by
late in the week. The 00z ECMWF is more progressive with the
ridge (versus the 12z GFS), shifting it east of the area by Sunday and
spitting out some light precip late in the weekend. Will probably
hold off on any significant mention of precip for now with dry low
levels expected to be in place with sfc high pressure just off to
the east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Convection has shifted east of the TAF locations late this
evening. Now we have stratus building into the area from the west
and will bring IFR conditions to the area overnight. Could see
some light precipitation during the day as upper level energy
moves in, however confidence not high enough to include in current forecast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Record lows for April 15th:

Springfield: 25 deg F...1928
Joplin     : 26 deg F...1983
West Plains: 25 deg F...1950
Rolla-Vichy: 27 deg F...1962

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Monday to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Monday to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...DSA