Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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686
FXUS63 KSGF 152055
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
255 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Record breaking high temps are occurring across the area Today
with many locations in the upper 70s to around 80. Gusty southwest
winds up to 45 mph have occurred Today, however with the approach
of a front we expect them to lighten up a little bit this evening,
however gusts up to 35mph will remain possible. The cold front
will be approaching our northwest counties early this evening. An
approaching shortwave trough and lift from the right entrance
region of a very strong upper level jet will cause a band of
showers to form along the front this evening lasting through the
Overnight hours as the front moves through. Some weak instability
is present for some isolated thunderstorms however severe storms
are not expected. High res models range from 0.20in to as much as
0.5in of rain in a few spots. Going on the lower end for qpf
tonight given the dry air in place however most locations along
and south of I-44 will see some measurable rainfall tonight.

That cold front will also push temps down into the 30s by morning
with gusty northwest winds. Friday looks to be about 30-35 degrees
colder than Today with highs around 40. Skies will be clearing
by afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Shortwave trough moves into the Plains late Friday night into
Saturday. Winds will return to the south and moisture will begin
to lift north back into the area. The region will also be in a
favorable jet location for lift for precipitation. Precip looks
to move in from the south by Sunrise Saturday and persist through
at least the first half of the day. Temps early on will be close
to 32F therefore a light wintry mix is possible mainly east of
SGF. Amounts will be very light and southerly winds will only
increase more during the morning which will switch all precip to
rain.

Sunday looks like a good day with dry conditions expected. Winds
will be on the increase during the day with temps topping out
near 60.

A low level jet really gets cranking Sunday night into Monday
morning as low pressure develops across the Plains. Precip looks
to break out Sunday night into Monday morning ahead of a cold
front. Some instability is present for thunderstorms. The front
looks to remain just west of the area through Monday night
therefore Monday could be a very warm and windy day depending on
cloud cover. A few rounds of showers and storms are possible.

The cold front will move through Tuesday with falling temps and
precip ending by evening. While some snow may mix in on the
backside of this system, it does not look like much at this time.
Rainfall totals from Monday through Wednesday look heaviest across
southcentral Missouri where a few inches could fall. Most places
however will see measurable rainfall given this pattern.

The pattern remains out of the southwest and active from Thursday
into Friday with more precip by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

VFR conditions are expected Today with just some mid to high
clouds moving through. Very gusty southwest winds will occur with
a few wind gusts to 45mph possible, especially at JLN and SGF.
Showers will move through tonight along and ahead of a strong cold
front. Cant rule out an isolated thunderstorm however confidence
is still to low to put into TAFs at this time. Winds will turn to
the northwest behind the front and become gusty tomorrow morning
along with some MVFR ceilings.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ055>058-
     066>070-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield



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