


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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839 FXUS63 KSGF 121123 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 623 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph today and tomorrow. Timing is in the afternoons and evenings and will occur mainly south of I-44. - Slow-moving and/or repeated storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding today through Sunday. - Active summertime pattern continues next week with daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A round of showers and thunderstorms moved through the area just after midnight bringing around 0.10" of rain to southern MO. A low-level jet is in place helping to keep showers around the area. As mentioned in the previous discussion, models have had a tough time handling the overnight convection. It seems that these showers will continue until around sunrise when the LLJ begins to diminish. Then, there will be a break in rain for most of the area as the atmosphere recovers from the morning convection. Though, the front will settle south of I-44 today near the MO/AR border which is where the highest chance for rain will occur. The POPs really increase this afternoon to 30-70% with the higher end percentages occurring closest to the southern border. MUCAPE is also the highest over that area with values near 2500 J/kg along the front. This area has been outlined in a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather today from McDonald co east into Dent co and south with the main threat being damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph from any downbursts that do occur. Expect most of the storms to be sub-severe. Though, not to be overlooked is the flash flooding potential with this system. A Flood Advisory was already issued overnight for southeastern Greene co. Since the front will be parked over southern MO, these storms could train over the same areas that received rain Friday night and cause flash flooding. Far southern MO is still in a Slight risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall which means ponding and nuisance flooding may occur in those areas especially urban areas. Sunday will be very similar to today with lingering morning rain showers, a break in the rain, then destabilization in the afternoon near the MO/AR border. The front starts to move out of the area by Sunday evening. Main threats for Sunday is damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph with a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather in place again over the same area as Saturday`s outlook. Again, flash flooding will be a concern with these storms. Daytime highs will be slightly cooler with lingering cloud cover from the scattered convection. Highs will be in the mid 80s today and lower 80s on Sunday. Lows will be warm in the upper 60s with south to southwesterly winds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Monday-Thursday: The remainder of the long-term forecast appears to remain fairly active as multiple shortwaves transit the area. We have PoPs in the grids every day next week, with the highest chances in the afternoons and evenings each day. NBM percentile data support highs near the climatological average through this period in the upper 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving through the area bringing frequent lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Have intermittent thunderstorms occurring throughout the day with possible brief periods of MVFR as well. Most of this activity will remain sub-severe, but a few of these storms may contain up to 60 mph winds. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Soria