000
FXUS63 KSGF 042305
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
505 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 252 CST WED MAR 4 2015

An upper level trough continues to dive southeast across the
plains and towards the area this afternoon. To the east of the
trough a strong upper level jet streak has developed from
northeastern Missouri into the Great Lakes region. The upper level
trough and jet is producing strong lift across the area and snow
is occurring across much of the area this afternoon. A very cold
and dry air mass is also spreading south into the area this
afternoon and this dry air is limiting the snowfall amounts across
the northern portions of the forecast area with just light snow or
flurries being reported at this hour.

Farther south across far southern and south central Missouri the
dry air has not arrived and widespread moderate snow is occurring
with snowfall rates of around an inch per hour beneath the
strongest radar echoes.

Lift will continue to spread across the area into this evening and
snow will continue to develop and spread north into south and
south central Missouri. Farther north light snow will continue but
will slowly end from north to south as the drier air continues to
spread south. Additional snowfall amounts along and north of the
interstate 44 corridor will be a dusting to less than an inch late
this afternoon into early this evening.

Moderate snow will continue to fall across south central
Missouri where storm total snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are
expected generally along south of a Branson to Salem Missouri line
with the heaviest across south central Missouri. Amounts north of
this line to along the I-44 corridor will range from 1 to 3 inches
with amounts tapper off to around a dusting near the Highway 54
corridor.

The snow will start to spread south of the area and taper off
late this evening but light snow will linger across south central
Missouri into the overnight hours before ending by sunrise
Thursday morning. A very cold air mass will continue to spread
south and lows will bottom out in the lower to middle teens
tonight with wind chill values in the zero to five above range.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 CST WED MAR 4 2015

Surface high pressure will move over the area Thursday, resulting
in a chilly day. Sunshine will return, but with 925/850mb
temperatures below -10C, highs will be a good 20-30 degrees below
average. As the surface high edges east, southerly winds will
return Thursday night and result in a very tricky low temperature
forecast. Snow cover across southern MO along with light/variable
winds and a clear sky strongly suggest lows in the single digits.
Elsewhere, southerly winds will gradually increase, most likely
resulting in lows occurring around midnight, steadying off or
slowly rising thereafter.

As has been advertised, a most welcome pattern change will result in
a warm up beginning on Friday. Temperatures will still be below
average Friday, but return to near average by Saturday. A weak front
works its way into the area on Saturday and fizzles out. A lack of
moisture and a weakening trend to this front precludes rain chances,
though an increase in clouds and a wind shift can be expected. Warm
air advection increases Sunday into the first half of next week and
above average temperatures look like a good bet. Highs will return
to the 60s for the first time since early February.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Bands of snow will slowly shift southeast out of southern Missouri
this evening. IFR conditions will persist for a few hours at
Branson this evening with an eventual rise to MVFR by late this
evening. Springfield and Joplin may see a few reductions to MVFR
as the last band of snow pushes through, otherwise just VFR is
expected. VFR conditions are then expected across southern
Missouri from late tonight into Thursday with some mid and high
level cloudiness across far southern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ082-083-091-
     092-095>098-103>106.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ057-058-
     068>071-077>081-088>090-093-094-101-102.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann