Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 282331
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the
taf period. Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish to less than
10 knots this evening at the taf sites and then will switch to the
west northwest early Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes
across the area. Weak lift and drier mid levels with the front
will result in only isolated convective activity at best with
chances too low to include in the taf forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ097-098-
     105-106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding





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