Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
521 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 136 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Southerly surface winds will increase today as the surface
pressure gradient tightens through the day. Winds will be breezy
from 15 to 20mph with gusts around 25 mph during the afternoon. As
a result of the strong southerly winds, warm air advection will
also occur allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees.

The combination of windy conditions and dry air in place will
bring elevated fire weather concerns to the region through this

Eventually, by this evening, moisture from the Gulf will begin to
make its way into the area. This will bring rain chances to the
area staring around or just after midnight. Initially, the rain
will have to overcome the dry air in place over the region. Models
have been in very good agreement with bringing this rain into the
area and the expectation is for all of the Ozarks to see

The models agree on the coverage of rainfall, which is rather
high, but also agree on the amounts which are rather low. Current
expectations are for rain amounts from 0.10 to 0.35 inches of
rain with this system with the majority of the rain falling
tonight into Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 136 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Light rain will linger across the region through around the noon
hour on Sunday before the system lifts to the northeast.

The pattern shift that will bring the region its first rain in
many days will remain in place. A deep trough, digging south of
the Rio Grande will keep the area under southwesterly flow aloft
for much of next week. This will keep southerly winds and mild
temperatures in place through Thursday.

As the upper trough moves slowly east, a cold front will move
across the plains and a bring colder, more seasonable airmass
into the Ozarks for the end of next week. Temperatures from model
output have highs in the 30s and overnight lows in the 20s for
Friday and through next weekend. There is some signals, depending
on the model of choice, for some potential precipitation but this
is a long way out for any significant model accuracy with regards
to precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 516 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Initially, low level wind shear will impact the KSGF/KJLN
terminals through late this morning. Skies will be clear and VFR
through the day, however, cloud cover will increase overnight with
MVFR ceilings advancing across the region from the south after
06z. Showers will impact the regions terminals through sunrise
with visibilities and ceilings falling to MVFR to IFR conditions
in rain as well.




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