Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 052255

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
555 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

...00Z Aviation Update...

Issued at 0221 PM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

Several closed upper lows in the overall upper level pattern. One
over southern California, another off the the Georgia coast which
has aided in bringing record rainfall to South Carolina. Another
shortwave was embedded in the northern stream just north of North

We have had a rough go in trying to clear things out today and it
has kept temperatures in the low to mid 60s over the western half
of the CWA. In the east where the cloud cover was thinner, it has
managed to make the upper 60s to low 70s.

Main focus in the short term will be with temperatures and the
potential for some fog again tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 0221 PM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

Southwest flow aloft will remain over the area tonight with weak
shortwave energy moving into the area. This will likely aid in
maintaining the cloud cover over the western CWA and will probably
see more cloud develop this evening/tonight across the east. There
is also the potential for stratus build-down and fog across the
area. Have added that to grids across the board, and am going with
2sm visibility after around 09z through 14z. Upper ridging within
the southern stream will build into the area on Tuesday and will
probably see more breaking up of the cloud cover than we did
today, which should result in temperatures reaching the mid to
upper 70s across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 0221 PM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

Ridge will remain in place across the area on Wednesday, with
temperatures rising back into the upper 70s for most locations. On
Thursday, we will have a frontal boundary move into the area late
in the day from the northwest as an upper level shortwave pushes
through from the northern stream and begins to carve out a trough
in the eastern U.S. Best dynamics with this system will remain
north of our forecast area(similar to last several fronts), but
front should have enough forcing with enough instability present
for showers and thunderstorms over the forecast area. Severe
weather is however not expected. This front will be fairly
progressive given the upper level flow and should see
precipitation end on Friday morning.

A cooler air mass will then move into the area behind the front
for the first part of the weekend.

Ridging will build back into the area by the latter half of the
weekend and should see temperatures warming back up into the upper
70s and low 80s by early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 0550 PM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

MVFR stratus will continue to stick around the region this
evening, occasionally scattering out in a few places. Any VFR this
evening should be fairly brief.

Fog is then expected to develop late tonight at the terminals, as
stratus builds down toward the surface. Expect at least IFR
conditions at all three terminals, with LIFR possible.

Slow improvement in conditions is then expected Tuesday morning.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.