Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 220824
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
224 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The line of showers and storms that produced severe winds and a
possible tornado, was moving across the eastern Ozarks and the
Mark Twain National Forest early this morning. This area of
convection will continue to move east and be well east of the
Ozarks by sunrise.

Behind this mornings storms, southwesterly winds will begin to
increase through the days as an area of surface low pressure,
nearly stacked with an upper level low, moves across northern
Missouri. Winds are expected to become gusty through this
afternoon as temperatures fall through the day into the 40s and
continue to drop into the 30s tonight. Sustained winds will be
from 10 to 20mph with gusts from 25 to 35mph at times. Some areas
west of Highway 65 may near wind advisory levels, but will watch
this as things progress through the day.

As the stacked lows move east models are wrapping some moisture
around it and into the Ozarks. Locations across central Missouri
will have the best chance of seeing this light precipitation
though most area will have a least a slight chance to see some
showers or light rain. As the low slides east tonight, a cold
airmass will slide into the region dropping temperatures into the
upper 20s. This may allow for some change over or mix with snow or
freezing rain. Again the best chances for this to occur will be
across Central Missouri and the lakes region. If the change over
occurs, a glaze of ice may occur on elevated surfaces however
confidence is on the low side for this currently.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

For Tuesday and Wednesday, upper level northwesterly flow will
keep the Ozarks more seasonable with highs in the 40s and
overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s. This will be despite
mostly sunny skies.

An upper level ridge will slide across the area for Thursday
which will bring a brief warm up and a pattern shift to the area.
This will occur as southerly winds again bring warmer and more
moist air into the Ozarks. A cold front is then expected to
through the region Friday into Saturday and bring another round of
precipitation to the area. The primary portion of this end of
week system will move across the northern plains. As a result, the
precipitation will be lighter with most of it east of the area
before cold temperatures filter into the area.

The weekend looks cooler as a result of the frontal passage with
highs in the 40s Saturday and the upper 30s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The storm system moving through the Ozarks this evening will make
steady progression through 09z and exit east of the region. Storms
were east of Joplin but will continue for an hour or two more for
Springfield and Branson. This will keep MVFR ceilings and
visibilities through 07z. As the storms shift east, Ceilings will
improve to VFR through sunrise across the area.

Cloud cover wrapping around the upper level low that is driving
the current storms will bring a return of MVFR ceilings along
with some rain showers though a few flakes of snow may mix in as
surface temperatures fall to the freezing mark in the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch



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