Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1241 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)

Mild and quiet conditions were observed over the region today. A
storm system was approaches from the west, and will begin to bring
us shower and thunderstorm chances tonight and into Wednesday.
Stormy conditions could persist into Thursday as well as unstable
air remains over portions of southern Missouri.

A risk for severe weather will begin Wednesday afternoon as a warm
front surges into the region. Moisture and instability will
spread within a highly sheared airmass, increasing the risk for
organized thunderstorms.

We will be mentioning all modes of severe weather possible on
Wednesday afternoon and evening, due to the shear and cape
combination. Storms located on the density gradient (warm front)
will need to be closely monitored for a tornado risk. Also,
southeast surface winds will provide a decent low level shear
structure for streamwise vorticity ingestion into updrafts.

For Thursday, the models all agree that a severe risk will
continue for the eastern Ozarks, or essentially areas east of
Highway 65. We will also mention all modes possible for Thursday.

Storms are expected to exit the area late Thursday evening.
Overnight lows on Thursday night will cool into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)

Short wave ridging will track over the nation`s midsection on
Friday as another storm system approaches from the west. This
feature will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms late
Saturday and into Sunday.

The GFS has the upper low on this system lagging behind
considerably, so showers will be possible through Monday.

The GFS is also hinting toward a pattern change with deep
northwest flow evolving across the central United States. This
would bring a cold Canadian airmass into the area toward the
middle and latter part of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings will try to give way to some
brief clearing in the near term with metsat imagery showing a
clearing line moving north from the MO/AR border. A storm system
moving into moving into the southern Plains will increase low level
moisture into the region for the second half of the taf period with
low end mvfr or ifr ceilings and chances for occasional showers. SE
winds will increase, particularly at KSGF due to local terrain




LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.