Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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250
FXUS63 KSGF 140945
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
345 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...Light Wintry Weather Developing Across the Missouri Ozarks this
Morning...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0330 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

An upper level trough is currently spreading southeast across the
Plains and into the region early this morning. Ahead of this
system a dry air mass remains in place across the area as
dewpoints in the single digits are occurring with temperatures in
the middle 20s to middle 30s. A strong low level jet and warm air
advection are also overspreading the area early this morning.
Temperatures across far southwestern Missouri and much of
southeastern Kansas are currently are in the middle 30s and will
likely not cool much more early this morning in the warm air
advection.

Lift from the warm air advection/low Level jet and trough are
starting to develop across the region early this morning and echos
are currently developing across the area early this morning. As
mentioned above the low levels are the atmosphere are fairly dry
so it will take some moistening to reach the ground. Short term
meso models do show convective elements develop early this
morning, and current radar trends indicate this activity would
likely be in the form of sleet and have a better chance of
reaching the ground early this morning in the heavy echos. This
will be convective in nature so this sleet will develop in
pockets or hit and miss in nature and currently are occurring
across the eastern Ozarks. Once the trough enters the area they
could spread back to the west but the best potential will be along
and east of Highway 65 during the early morning hours.

The warm air advection will continue to spread east early this
morning, but initially where the precipitation is developing,
evaporative cooling in saturating the low levels will keep the
warming at bay, but once the sun starts to rise and the low levels
moisten up temperatures will warm from west to east fairly quickly
this morning, especially west of Highway 65.

The warm air advection has also spread a warm nose into
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri early this morning.
Across central Missouri and the far eastern Ozarks the warm nose
will likely not spread over these areas. Water vapor imagery and
models do show cloud ice present, however, there is dry air in the
mid levels that needs to be overcome. The lift from this system
should be able to overcome this dry area for at least a period
this morning, then dry air spreads into the area from the west
and could result in the loss of cloud ice later this morning.
Where the warm nose is present, light freezing drizzle/light
freezing rain will be possible this morning before temperatures
warm above freezing. Any convective elements would occur as
pockets of sleet for the main precipitation type. Across central
and south central Missouri snow will occur outside the pockets of
sleet, but some light freezing drizzle is still expected with the
loss of cloud ice later this morning. Again pockets of sleet will
be possible across much of the Missouri Ozarks with any convective elements.
As the trough moves through, a line of light precipitation,
likely in the form of drizzle/freezing drizzle, will spread east
across the area late this morning into this afternoon.

Coverage is going to be another question, as the precipitation
early this morning will likely be in bands or pockets and be hit
or miss in nature and likely affect more of the eastern Ozarks.
The line of precipitation along the trough axis will likely occur
while temperatures are above freezing across the eastern Ozarks.
The timing of the Winter Weather Advisory looks good...areas along
and east of Highway 65 will have the best potential for impacts
from this wintry weather. Will go ahead and leave the entire area
in the Advisory at this time with the pockets of sleet possible,
but the advisory will likely be able to be cancelled early across
far southwestern Missouri. Generally expecting a dusting to
around one inch of snow and sleet to occur along and east of
Highway 65 with a glaze to a few hundredths of an inch of ice
possible mainly where temperatures are below freezing this
morning.

A nice temperature gradient will set up across the area today as
highs in the 50s occur across southeastern Kansas with highs in
the lower 30s expected across the far eastern Ozarks.

Lows tonight will be in the middle 20s to the lower 30s. Some
patchy fog will be possible mainly across south central Missouri
tonight into early Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 0330 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Warmer conditions will occur on Monday and Tuesday as highs in the
50s occur. A couple of fast moving upper level disturbances will
track through the region during this time frame. Moisture will be
limited, but a few sprinkles may occur with the passage of these
disturbances.

A nice warm up is still in store late this week as highs in the
60s and 70s occur Thursday and Friday. These warm conditions will
be ushered into the area on gusty southerly winds and gusts over
30 mph could occur each afternoon. The gusty winds and very warm
conditions could also lead to elevated fire weather conditions
both afternoons, mainly across southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR ceilings are expected to lower as
lift and eventually precipitation increases as an upper level
disturbance/jet max approaches from the wnw. Freezing
rain/drizzle (KSGF and KBBG) and liquid rain/drizzle (KJLN) are
expected to develop toward 09-10z then end toward 18z. Believe
lower clouds will hang in at KBBG and KSGF for a longer period
after the precip ends versus KJLN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Springfield  42  30  57  34 /  60  10  10  10
Joplin       50  34  60  37 /  50   0  10  10
Branson      38  32  57  37 /  50  10  10  10
West Plains  34  27  53  33 /  70  10  10  20
Vichy/Rolla  34  27  52  33 /  80  10  10  20

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA



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