Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 151853

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1253 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

The freezing line and most of the precipitation has shifted to
the north of the Ozarks this afternoon removing the threat of
freezing rain from the Ozarks. This allowed us to expire the ice
storm warning as expected.

In its place however, the moisture continues moving into the area
along with near zero dewpoint depressions and light winds will
allow fog to develop across the area this afternoon and into this
evening. Some areas have already seen visibilities drop to a half
mile of less along the Arkansas state line. A dense fog advisory
is in effect for those areas. There may be a need to expand the
dense fog advisory to the north as the area looks as though it
will likely expend through the afternoon and possible into this
evening as the result of a combination of stratus build down and
advection fog.

The region will see somewhat of a break in the rain this afternoon
though areas of drizzle may linger. However, the storm system
across the plains will begin to lift to the northeast through
tonight. This will allow more rain to spread into the Ozarks
through tonight with rain impacting the Ozarks through the day

This dynamic system, which has a negative tilt, will have the
potential for convective elements. Have added thunder to the
forecast beginning this evening around 00z through Monday as the
system moves slowly to the northeast. While instability will
initially be limited, can rule out a few rumbles this evening. The
better chances of Thunderstorms will come through the day Monday.

Enough instability and deep lift may be available Monday afternoon
for an isolated strong storm or two to impact portions of south
central Missouri towards the boot heel region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

The deep trough across the desert southwest and into old Mexico is
expected by the models to cut off and linger nearly in place
through the middle part of the week. THis will place the Ozarks
under the continued influence of southwesterly flow aloft as we
head into late Thursday into Friday. By then, the models finally
begin the kick the systems out and to the northeast. This would
bring another period of rainfall to the region, but this system
will not loiter over the area as long as the ongoing system is.

The long range models have some timing differences with the rain
for the end of the week with the ECMWF bringing rain to the area
Thursday morning and GFS and Canadian holding off til Friday
afternoon and evening.

A deep digging trough is then expected to finally change the
upper level pattern over the plains and Ozarks for next weekend
and into next week, but that is a long way off at this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Not much change to the forecast through 18Z Monday. Expect IFR to
at times LIFR conditions to continue through the entire period at
all 3 TAF sites. Periods of drizzle and fog will persist through
the afternoon. By tonight, main upper low begins to lift northeast
towards the region. Expect another surge of moisture late tonight
with widespread showers moving into the region once again. Cannot
rule out a rumble of thunder towards the end of the TAF period. As this
low lifts northeast, low level jet increases late tonight with
LLWS developing. Some gusty winds will begin to mix to the surface
as gradient tightens and likely see southerly winds gust to 20 to
25 knots from late tonight through 18Z Monday.


MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ095-096-



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