Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 270502
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Ongoing thunderstorms were becoming more outflow structured across
southwest and south central Missouri this afternoon. This will
lead to further weakening with time, and we may consider
canceling the Severe Thunderstorm Watch early.
The main show will occur tonight as a line of thunderstorms
approaches the Kansas and Missouri state line toward midnight.
We think a few of these storms could become organized, with the
potential for damaging wind gusts and small hail. With 0 to 3 km
shear vectors screaming to the north northeast at 40 to 45 knots,
any northwest to southeast oriented line segments will have the
chance of spinning up some meso-vorts with a tornado risk.
However, it`s quite uncertain that any segments will evolve into
this northwest to southeast structure. This is more of a short
term forecast challenge.
Storms are expected to continue through the Highway 65 corridor,
and should weaken as they approach the eastern Ozarks.
Additional storms will possible Wednesday as the main cold front
shifts through southern Missouri during the daytime hours. There
is a severe risk for hail and wind east of Highway 65. All
precipitation should exit the Ozarks Wednesday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
A small window of quiet weather is expected Thursday into Friday
with mild temperatures.
The risk for organized storms will ramp up Friday night into
Saturday, as another negatively tilted storm system approaches
from the west.
This system will need to be monitored closely as several
ingredients could come together for an episode of severe
thunderstorms. There doesn`t appear to be any potential negatives
for Friday night and Saturday`s set up at the moment.
Sunday into Monday the pattern would offer another window of quiet
weather with mild temperatures.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Line of convection starting to make an eastward push now over
southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. Should make it to the JLN
area prior to the 06z TAF time and into SGF/BBG by 07-08z. Have
things going through fairly quickly and ending prior to 12z with
VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Gusty winds are
expected, especially when winds become more southwesterly today as
the drier air moves in.