Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 262017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
317 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Early this afternoon a surface boundary was located from eastern
Oklahoma north and east through central portions of the lower
Missouri River Valley. This frontal boundary has been a focus for
scattered showers and a few T`storms since early this morning.

The surface front is not expected to move very much through the
short term as the upper level flow remains parallel. This should
lead to more isolated to scattered T`storms on and off through
the period. Severe weather chances look rather low at the moment,
especially across portions of southwest and central Missouri given
the cloud cover and limited heating this afternoon. Visible
satellite imagery shows a solid clearing line across southeast
Kansas and eastern Ozarks, which will likely help destabilize the
atmosphere through sunset. At this time, convective allowing
models are not very bullish with additional precip/storm
development through the late afternoon and evening.

Overnight, short term models are pinging on some convection developing
just to our north and west where the better instability will
reside. As time progresses through the evening, 0-6km bulk shear
begins to decrease. The better shot at a strong storm or two will
be across southeastern Kansas and adjacent MO counties and would
occur prior to midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Upper level southwest flow will continue through the weekend and
into early next week. Isolated to scattered storms will remain
possible through much of the long term. The pattern will gradually
start to evolve from southwest flow to more of a northwest flow
as an upper level ridge begins to build across the Rockies.

Generally speaking, this pattern evolution doesn`t mean much of a
change in our weather here in the Ozarks. It seems as though as
our area will be the "pivot point" (if you will) between the
ridge building out west and the breakdown of the ridge over the
east...and evolution of the flow from southwest to northwest.
Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected
with little change in max/min temperatures from day to day. No
widespread severe weather, however, frequent lightning, brief
heavy rainfall, and perhaps a strong wind gust or two can be
expected in the stronger cells.

Temperatures through the long term look to be right around average
for late August. If the upper level ridge out west begins to
move eastward toward the region early next weekend (as some
globals are currently hinting) we should see rain chances subside
a bit with increasing daytime highs.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Shower activity will continue to impact the Springfield and
Branson terminals into this evening. Some scattered thunderstorms
will also be possible for the Joplin aerodrome this evening.
Light fog will impact area terminals during the early morning
hours through sunrise on Saturday. Visibilities will only be
slightly impacted with high end MVFR conditions expected as
visibilities range from 5-6SM.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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