Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
615 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Scattered showers/storms were slowly tracking northeast across the
area on the nose of a weak low level jet. Short term models continue
this trend through the morning hours, with mainly showers and
perhaps isolated thunder. A broad area of warm advection ahead of an
approaching cold front will produce lift for more scattered
convection this afternoon and evening as the cold front pushes
across central Kansas. Short term models are indicating an uptick in
intensity and coverage across eastern Kansas late this afternoon
and then push eastward. The biggest question will be how quickly
we can get some instability this afternoon. Still some
uncertainty regarding this but still feel confident we will see
stronger and possibly severe storms develop, with mainly hail and
damaging winds the main threat later this afternoon and evening.
At this point western and central Missouri and southeast Kansas
looks to have the better chances for any severe storms. With low
level and surface winds progged to remain south-southwest over the
area, the tornado potential at this point looks to be minimal.

Warm sector temperatures will push into the mid and upper 80s and
with dew points in the low to mid 70s will yield heat index readings
in the middle 90s.

Expect somewhat better coverage of showers/storms just ahead of the
front late this evening and overnight, but instability should be
waning by this time and severe weather threat also diminishing.
However, precipitable water values remain 1.5 to 2 inches, so
locally heavy rainfall will be likely with any of the storms ahead
of the front. The actual front does not push through until after 12Z.

Lingering showers Thursday morning will give way to quieter weather,
as high pressure builds for the afternoon and overnight hours.
Slightly cooler and less humid weather will settle in on Thursday,
but heat index readings will still manage to top off near 90.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Upper ridging begins to build across the inter-mountain west on
Friday, with both the GFS and ECMWF depicting a shortwave dropping
south out of the Dakota`s towards Missouri. Timing is somewhat of a
question, but it looks like showers/t-storm chances will ramp out
later Friday into Friday night and perhaps linger into Saturday.

For later in the weekend and into early next week 500mb heights rise
across southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Cannot rule out
small rain chances during this time frame, but overall looks like a
dry period.

Temperatures look to be seasonal through the period, with a warming
trend late in the weekend and early next week as heights rise, where
heat index readings may push the century mark by Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Pilots can expect scattered showers and storms today and tonight
across the Missouri Ozarks region. VFR to occassional MVFR
conditions will be around through tonight. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities will be around any showers and convection. This
potential is mentioned with TEMPO groups this afternoon and late
evening. Isolated strong to severe convection is possible late
this evening along a frontal boundary. Winds will be southerly and
breezy with some gusts around 20 knots for SGF and JLN expected
this afternoon.




SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.