Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221935
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Upper level ridge of high pressure was in place across the region
with temepratuers from the mid to upper 90s and heat index values
in the 100 to 105 degree range so far this afternoon. We have
decided to go ahead and extend the advisory to our remaining
counties in the CWA and also extend in time through Monday as
there will be several days in a row with heat index values above
100 degrees.

There have been a few widely scattered showers southeast of a
Branson to Salem line this afternoon, but we are not expecting
much more coverage than what we currently have with the upper
ridge overhead.

Our main forecast focus will be with the extended heat through
early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Upper level ridge is not expected to move too much through early
next week and will be over the region keeping the storm track to
our west and north until the middle to later part of next week.
This will lock in the heat through the weekend into early next
week. Models are suggesting some lower dew points mixing down
during the day Saturday and Sunday, but the drier conditions will
also allow for temperatures to rise a bit more as well. So
regardless, our temperature/heat index should be above 100 for the
next several days which would meet the criteria for a heat
advisory for consecutive days above 100. For this reason, we will
be extending the heat advisory to the remainder of the forecast
area and also extending through 7 pm Monday. Temperatures will
also approach record levels for highs over the next few days.
Records for the next few days are listed in the climate section below.

While we can`t completely rule out a stray shower/thunderstorm
beneath the ridge, coverage is not expected to exceed anything
isolated in nature.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level shortwave will eventually try and move into the
area and break down some of the upper ridging in place and bring a
cold front into the area possibly by the middle to late next week.
Models still not in agreement on the timing of this feature, but
will most likely occur by the middle of next week. This will bring
back shower and thunderstorm activity to the region and also a
break from the heat.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a
large upper level high over the region.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOCATION   /RECORD/DATE/YEAR

SPRINGFIELD/102/AUG 22/1983
           /99 /AUG 23/1991,1938,1936
           /100/AUG 24/1938,1922
           /100/AUG 25/1938

JOPLIN     /103/AUG 22/1983,2003
           /102/AUG 23/1947
           /102/AUG 24/1947
           /101/AUG 25/1983,2003

ROLLA-VICHY/99 /AUG 22/2001
           /98 /AUG 23/1898
           /97 /AUG 24/1978
           /101/AUG 25/1973

WEST PLAINS/101/AUG 22/1983
           /101/AUG 23/2000
           /100/AUG 24/1978
           /100/AUG 25/1983

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA
CLIMATE...DSA





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