Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 291953
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

All is quiet on radar as of mid afternoon but high resolution
forecast models like the HRRR, RUC, and the ARW continue to
suggest that widely scattered convection will develop along a
southwest to northeast line across southwestern Missouri to the
Lake of the Ozarks area by late afternoon and early evening.

Mid level shear axis will continue to very slowly move across the
area. Modest instability of around 1500 J/KG has develop across
southwestern Missouri where sunshine occurred early this
afternoon. Shear is rather weak though. Sounding analyst shows
some low level drier air which could suggest some gusty winds may
be possible with the strongest convection that develops.

Will mention a limited threat for gusty winds and small hail with
the strongest convection late this afternoon and evening. No
severe weather is anticipated. Lightning will be the main hazard
along with brief heavy downpours. A few scattered showers may
linger across portions of the Missouri Ozarks through the night
time hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

No major changes to the forecast offered by the 12z suite of model
output. Will continue to monitor the weak shear axis aloft that
will linger over/near the area into the first half of next week.
QPF signature is erratic and random from the models, and the main
upper level features at play support an isolated to widely
scattered chance of diurnal showers/storms. Most locations will
remain dry, but it will be something to keep in mind.

Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure will spread across the
Midwest and temperatures will warm to above average. Certainly
nothing out of the ordinary for late August/early September. Highs
each day will be a few degrees either side of 90, with lows in the
mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail for TAF sites this afternoon
and tonight with the exception of JLN for the next couple of
hours. JLN may hold on to some MVFR ceilings around 3k feet
through mid afternoon. Have mentioned VCTS between 21z to 03z with
scattered convection around followed by VCSH late this evening.
Confidence and coverage is not high enough to have much if any
impact at the individual TAF sites. Will monitor trends and update
as need be late this afternoon if coverage looks to impact sites.
Winds will be light south-southeasterly possibly becoming
somewhat variable tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Griffin


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