Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 270452
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.UPDATE...

Currently monitoring southeast Kansas and western Missouri for the
development of deep convection over the next several hours.

A low level jet was strengthening across eastern Oklahoma
overnight, which will trigger thunderstorms across southern
Missouri.

We expect this trend to continue into the Ozarks into the early
morning hours of Wednesday.

There is a pocket of drier air between 800 and 900mb that would
support a risk for damaging wind gusts with any organized updrafts
tonight. Some cape exists within the hail growth zone, so we can
not ruled out a marginal hail risk either.

0-3 km shear vectors will orient west southwest to east northeast through
the overnight hours ranging from 30 to 40 knots. Any north to
south oriented line segment will be capable of organizing and
producing an enhanced risk for damaging wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Not much change to the overall forecast. Shortwave near the TX
Panhandle/western OK border will move east to the four state
KS/OK/MO/AR region by 12z. Increasing and veering low level flow
late tonight is expected to support a cluster of showers/tstms,
mainly for the sw or southern portion of the cwfa. HRRR is the
most bullish with other high resolution models not as aggressive,
but still have some signals for precip. Will need to watch rain
amounts in some of our more saturated areas of the western cwfa,
but not seeing anything that makes me overly concerned at this
point. Any hydro issues will likely be small scale/mesoscale.

Nocturnal precip should weaken as it moves east Wed morning, but
isolated-scattered diurnal development could occur late in the
day. However, overall shortwave ridging in the wake of the exiting
trough will probably suppress chances to some extent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A broad upper level trough will shift east into the Rockies Thu
with ripples in the sw flow aloft. Hard to pinpoint a period that
won`t have at least some chance of showers/tstms. A sw-ne oriented sfc
front is expected to move Fri night/Sat as what is left of the
shortwave approaches the region.

It looks like we may see at least a brief period of drier weather
later Sunday into Monday as a Midwestern sfc high noses south into
the region in the wake of the sfc front. There is at least general
agreement with medium range guidance in keeping a weak upper level
shear axis over the area by Tuesday but with only modest chances
for precip given drier air expected to be in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to closely monitor radar trends tonight.

A weak disturbance was approaching the region from the west, and
is expected to trigger showers and thunderstorms through the night.

Any storms that directly impacts an airport will temporarily create lower
flight conditions with reduced visibilities. There is also a risk
for damaging wind gusts and a marginal risk for large hail with any
storms that can become organized.

Otherwise look for southerly breezes at 5 to 10 mph over the next
24 hours.

Safe travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer






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