Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 282017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
317 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Similar to days past, a few scattered showers and storms have
developed in a very warm/moist air mass that resides across the
region. The better rain chances will be across southwest Kansas
and western Missouri. Additionally, instability values across
our southeast (around West Plains) are a bit higher than
locations along the Highway 65 corridor so I wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few isolated storms develop in that region.
Although instability is present, bulk shear is essentially
nonexistent in a very weakly forced environment, which should
limit our overall severe threat.

Similar to evenings past, convection will slowly begin to wind
down around sunset. If clouds decrease overnight, some locations
may experience some light fog especially in areas that receive
rain this afternoon/early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

No significant changes in the long term for the most part. Fairly
warm and muggy conditions will be in place early in the week. There
will likely be scattered showers and T`storms develop during peak
heating each afternoon. High temperatures will be approaching 90F
with heat indices ramping up into the middle 90s, especially
across southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri.

The upper level flow will begin to veer from southwesterly to
northwesterly by mid week as an upper level ridge develops over the
northern plains. An upper level disturbance and surface cold
front are forecast to surge southward mid to late week. Ahead of
this system, shower and t`storm chances will begin to increase and
should continue into Thursday. The cold front will likely push
through the area later in the day Thursday or Thursday night.
Going into next weekend, rain chances drop off as a drier and a
bit cooler air mass moves into the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Fairly unstable late this morning and have started to see some
convection developing across southeast KS into southwest and west
central MO. Have gone with some vcts at JLN but have kept out of
the other TAFS for the 18z forecast for now. Should remain in VFR
outside of any convection until around daybreak when some mvfr fog
may develop.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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