Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 282258
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Some clouds remain, but the snow/sleet/rain from a quick moving
upper level disturbance has passed south of the area. Clouds should
try to clear this afternoon and early evening. However warm air
advection and a ne advecting elevated mixed layer ahead of an
approaching sfc trough may trap some moisture in the low levels,
particularly over the western cwfa. With the exception of south
central MO (south of the higher terrain...Oregon County area)
winds should stay high enough to limit fog/stratus build down.

The approaching sfc trough/weak cold front supported by shortwave
moving from the Plains into the Midwest will pass through the
region in the afternoon/early evening. Much warmer temperatures
will occur ahead of the front. A few light showers/sprinkles will
be possible, but with a fairly dry atmosphere expected to be in
place, expect nothing significant.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

We will continue the transition to warmer weather early in the
week with dry conditions Monday and Tuesday as an upper level
ridge moves into the central CONUS. A couple of weak frontal
boundaries try to push into the area late Tuesday and again
Thursday, but wash out over area or stall near or over us. Rain
chances will increases Wednesday into Thursday.

There is fairly good model to model agreement on the timing of a
more substantial front passing through the area Friday/Day 6, as
the overall pattern starts to amplify again with a trough moving
into the western CONUS then moving into the Plains. Have increased
shower/tstm chances during this time with dry and cooler weather
for Saturday. Imagine we will see timing changes in the fcst
between now and then given the faster zonal pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period at the TAF sites.
Southeast winds will increase this evening, especially at the SGF
site where the localized funnel wind effect is expected. Stratus
was to the east of all 3 terminals and should remain there as it
continues to dissipate early this evening. Wind will eventually
veer to the south and then northwest late in the period as the
next shortwave and cold front move through.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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