Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 052314
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion for 00Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

High confidence forecast in quiet weather through Friday. Surface
high pressure will build across the region tonight, with the center
of the high over the eastern Ozarks. This will allow for good
radiational cooling and expect lows tonight in the 40s area-wide,
with lower 40s and upper 30s across the eastern Ozarks.

High will slowly drift south on Friday which will allow a quick warm-
up during the afternoon and low level winds become more southerly,
albeit light. With plenty of sunshine once again temperatures will
rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s area-wide.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Expect the quiet weather to continue into Saturday with upper
ridging over the region. Western longwave trough begins to migrate
eastward late Saturday with surface low developing across northwest
Kansas and east/west oriented frontal boundary sagging southward
into northern Missouri and perhaps as far south as interstate 70
towards Sunday morning. Latest run of the GFS and NAM both shows
some convection across the western and northern counties late
Saturday night. Question remains moisture availability and thus
instabilities, so severe threat remains conditional through Sunday.

Trough continues its migration eastward Monday taking on a more
negative tilt across the Plains. This will be the best chance for
severe thunderstorms as shear/buoyancy look to be sufficient for
stronger and more organized updrafts.

Still some uncertainties in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.
Another closed 500mb low looks to rotate through the flow from the
northern Rockies out across the northern Plains. Medium range models
differ on its speed and thus subsequent details. None the less looks
as though somewhat of an active period with rain/t-storms chances
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR Conditions will occur
at the TAF sites this evening through the day Friday as high
pressure remains over the region. Winds will become light and
variable this evening continuing into early Friday morning. Then
light west to southwesterly winds will develop during the late
morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Wise


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