Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 210851
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog is the main near term concern. 11-3.9 micron METSAT
imagery and sfc obs indicate areas of dense fog have developed
over the far sw cwfa. KGMJ/Grove OK, KHFJ/Monett, KFWB/West
Branson, and adjacent areas in NW AR have all been consistently at
1/4sm in recent obs. Others nearby sites are bouncing around
visibility wise indicating that the fog is somewhat more shallow
and/or patchy as you head north and northeast into drier air which
has worked it`s way south. Overall the best chances for fog early
today will be roughly south and west of a line from Pittsburg KS-
Springfield-Gainesville. Current advisory reflects the most
persistent/widespread dense fog observations so far. Low terrain
and lakes are favored areas for this nighttime radiation fog.

Weak high pressure over the region today will shift off to the
east for Wed leaving the region with quiet and cool weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A shortwave over the far western CONUS will reach the eastern
Plains by 12z Thursday. Only light precip chances will occur over
the area given the relatively weak lift and a lack of deep
moisture.

In the wake of the shortwave a high amplitude upper level pattern
develops with a large and expanding ridge over the eastern Rockies
and Plains. We should see unseasonably warm temperatures to close
out the week. 850mb/925mb temperatures climatologically support
daily max sfc temps in the low/mid 80s over the western cwfa Friday-
Sunday with 70s elsewhere. The extended model blend fcst doesn`t
quite reflect fcst highs that are that warm, but the blend was
tweaked up just a bit in collaboration with some neighboring
wfo`s.

While some significant differences exist between various pieces of
fcst guidance, in general it looks like a shortwave will move
east into the Plains Monday. The slower ECMWF is probably a better
bet versus the more progressive GFS at this point with better
chances for rain holding off until just after this fcst period.
For now have only very modest rain chances for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique along with late evening
temperature and dew point spreads continue to indicate dense fog
potential overnight and early Tuesday morning. IFR and periods of
LIFR are still expected. Fog onset was delayed a bit at
Springfield and Branson...otherwise very little change was made to
this set of TAFs. Fog will burn off by mid morning with VFR then
expected into Tuesday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ088-
     093>095-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann






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