Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 260042
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014
...Update to Low Temperatures Tonight...
Issued at 636 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
Temperatures have quickly tanked early this evening given clear
skies, light winds, and low dew points. We have lowered "overnight
lows" to account for this. Temperatures over many locations will
actually steady off and start to rise later this evening as clouds
increase and winds begin to increase out of the south. Thus,
actual low temperatures over many areas will occur this evening.
Updates already sent.
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.
Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.
The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.
After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
A quick moving low pressure system will dive southeast across the
central United States late tonight and Wednesday morning. This
system will produce a mixture of rain and snow, with the southern
extent of this precipitation clipping portions of southern
Missouri. The Springfield terminal stands the best chance of
receiving precipitation...thus a TEMPO group was included for
MVFR. Confidence is lower that Branson will receive precipitation.
Joplin will likely remain dry. As this system passes, a cold
front will move though the region bringing brisk and gusty west to
northwest winds by Wednesday afternoon.