Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281931

231 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Some clouds remain, but the snow/sleet/rain from a quick moving
upper level disturbance has passed south of the area. Clouds should
try to clear this afternoon and early evening. However warm air
advection and a ne advecting elevated mixed layer ahead of an
approaching sfc trough may trap some moisture in the low levels,
particularly over the western cwfa. With the exception of south
central MO (south of the higher terrain...Oregon County area)
winds should stay high enough to limit fog/stratus build down.

The approaching sfc trough/weak cold front supported by shortwave
moving from the Plains into the Midwest will pass through the
region in the afternoon/early evening. Much warmer temperatures
will occur ahead of the front. A few light showers/sprinkles will
be possible, but with a fairly dry atmosphere expected to be in
place, expect nothing significant.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

We will continue the transition to warmer weather early in the
week with dry conditions Monday and Tuesday as an upper level
ridge moves into the central CONUS. A couple of weak frontal
boundaries try to push into the area late Tuesday and again
Thursday, but wash out over area or stall near or over us. Rain
chances will increases Wednesday into Thursday.

There is fairly good model to model agreement on the timing of a
more substantial front passing through the area Friday/Day 6, as
the overall pattern starts to amplify again with a trough moving
into the western CONUS then moving into the Plains. Have increased
shower/tstm chances during this time with dry and cooler weather
for Saturday. Imagine we will see timing changes in the fcst
between now and then given the faster zonal pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Above noted jet and shortwave to exit into eastern US trough
ending precipitation. Associated mid deck has cleared northern and far
western MO though trajectories to keep mid level VFR ceilings into
the afternoon at KSGF and perhaps even the evening at KBBG. LLWS
will then develop tonight.




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