000
FXUS63 KSGF 231754
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1254 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)

Unseasonably warm conditions continued this afternoon as
temperatures warmed into the middle and upper 80s.

A summertime ridge of high pressure was responsible for the warm
and dry weather. This will eventually begin to breakdown come
Saturday night. Until then, look for dry weather with highs
back into the 80s on Saturday. Lows tonight will fall into the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)

A long wave trough of low pressure accompanied by a frontal system
will slowly approach the eastern Plains Saturday night into
Sunday. This pattern will facilitate showers and thunderstorms
across southeast Kansas and western Missouri.

Both the ECMWF and the GFS now suggests this long wave will
become detached, causing a large band of precipitation to break
apart before shifting east through the rest of southern Missouri.
Therefore, it`s quite possible much of southern Missouri could
remain dry through early next week. Much better rain chances will
occur over southeast Kansas and western Missouri.

The surface front will move across the entire region, bringing
cooler and less humid air to the Ozarks. Temperatures will respond
by falling into the 40s and 50s Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Afternoon highs will only warm into the 70s, Monday through
Wednesday.

We expect a warming trend toward the end of next week, with temps
back into the 80s Thursday and Friday. At this time it appears as
though next week should be mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure over the nation`s midsection continues to offer warm
and dry conditions.

Surface winds will be light and generally from the south
southeast.

No obstructions to visibilities or low ceilings are expected at
this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer