Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1200 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

A weak front is currently near the Missouri and Arkansas board
this afternoon. This front brought slightly cooler conditions to
central Missouri, but warmer conditions were still occurring
across southern MO. Current temperatures are ranging from the
middle 60s across central MO to the middle 70s across southern MO.

The front will lift back to the north tomorrow with highs in the
lower 70s to the upper 70s expected across the area. A dry air
mass and little lift with the front will keep the area dry through
Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

An upper level disturbance will track across the Plains Tuesday
night then across the area on Wednesday. This will send a cold
front through the area. Showers and storms will develop along and
behind the front Tuesday night into the day Wednesday, ended from
west to east by Wednesday evening. Instability  will be weak
across the area and the better upper level support will lag the
front resulting in weaker shear across the area with the frontal
passage. Therefore, due to the weak shear and instability no
severe weather is expected with the front across extreme
southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Overall rainfall amounts will generally not be too
heavy with less than a quarter of an inch of rain expected.

The front will not bring much in the way of cooler conditions to
the area as upper level ridging builds right back towards and
over the region late this week. Highs in the 70s will occur
Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday.

Another front will move through the area this weekend, and medium
range models differ on the exact timing of the front. The air
mass will be dry and overall rain chances are low, with the best
chances across central MO closer to the upper level disturbance
that will pass well northwest of the area. If the front is slower,
highs Saturday would once again be quite warm like Friday. This
front will also not bring a much cooler air mass to the region,
but a faster passaging would result in highs in the 60s to low 70
on Saturday.

Sunday will be similar to today with highs in the middle 60s to
the middle 70s. Temperatures will then warm back into the 70s on
Monday area wide.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR conditions will continue overnight. Confidence has then
increased that a band of MVFR ceilings will build north across
western Missouri Tuesday morning. This will include the Joplin
aerodrome. At this time, it looks like this MVFR deck will remain
west of Springfield and Branson.

Any MVFR should then move out of the area by mid-afternoon with
VFR then expected through Tuesday evening. Winds will generally
remain light out of the southeast through the period.




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