651
FXUS63 KSGF 220435
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Main forecast concern is on convective potential and timing with
cold front dropping through the area late tonight and Tuesday.

Frontal boundary draped across far northern Missouri this afternoon
will be the focal point for more widespread convection beginning
this evening and then spreading southward with time. Latest trends
of the short term models shows this convection entering central
Missouri and portions of southeast Kansas after midnight and
spreading southward towards southern Missouri. Still could be some
stronger storms or perhaps an isolated severe storm across
central Missouri, but instability will be waning by this time.

Front pushes through southern Missouri Tuesday afternoon. Deep layer
shear somewhat limited, but if enough instability can develop will
likely see at least a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts and
large hail into the evening hours. Front is expected to drop
south into Arkansas by late Tuesday evening with rain chances
tapering off. High pressure begins to build southward into the
area late Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Northwest flow aloft will the main weather pattern from Wednesday
through Friday. Meanwhile, the cold front will slip south of the
area on Wednesday with surface high pressure building across the
region. This high will hang around through at least Friday with
rather pleasant conditions for the latter part of August. Daily
highs will be in the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 60s
and some 50s in the cooler valley locations.

As we head into the weekend and early next week, there is some
indications from the medium range models for some ripples in the
flow to perhaps bring a chance for some showers and storms, at least
towards the end of the weekend and into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Area of strong convection was located across northern into central
Missouri late this evening. Eventually this will begin to take a
more southeasterly movement and make it into the TAF forecast
areas, towards morning and during the day on Tuesday. Until then,
VFR conditions are expected. As the thunderstorms move over, then
MVFR to brief IFR will be possible. Winds will switch to the
southwest and west with the convection and become northerly by
late in the day as the front pushes through.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg