000
FXUS63 KSGF 301956 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
156 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 156 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

An upper level low is currently located across southern
California as an upper level trough is starting to push into the
Pacific Northwest. An upper level ridge is located across the
plains ahead of these features. Tonight the trough will dive out
of the northwest towards the region as the upper level low tracks
to the southeast and will they will phase together over the
region. As this occurs the ridge will push east and flatten
tonight into Saturday. This will result in warm air advecting
north tonight into Saturday from west to east.

As the upper level low tracks east and the trough south, rain will
start to spread towards the area. There is a dry air mass
currently over the region and will take a little time to overcome.
Rain will be limited by the dry air. Rain will start to spread
into the far western and northern portions of the forecast area
Saturday morning and afternoon, but much of southern Missouri will
be dry until late in the afternoon.

As the upper level trough to the north dives south and the upper
level low to the southwest pushes east, widespread rain will
overspread the region from west to east later Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning and will end from west to east by Sunday
night. All rain is expected Saturday into Saturday night as the
warm air advects north. As the upper level trough dives southeast
into the area, cold air advection will begin to spread into the
area from northwest to southeast Sunday morning and afternoon.
Highs Sunday will occur during the morning hours.

As the cold air spreads south, rain may mix with or change over
to light snow Sunday morning and afternoon, ending as flurries
Sunday evening. By the time the colder air makes it into the area,
lift and the better precipitation amounts will have spread off to
the east. So, any snow will be on the light side Sunday morning
and afternoon. Also, given warm grounds and the snow occurring
during the afternoon, and rates not being heavy, any
accumulations will be very limited. May get a dusting on grassy
and elevated surface across central Missouri but not expecting
much.

The 12Z model runs this morning continued the warmer trend with
this system of the last few runs, so this system is looking to
just be a good rain maker for the area with just some light snow
or flurries at the end. It`s a good chance much of the area sees
some snowflakes, but most locations will not see any
accumulations, except for central Missouri where a dusting to
one half inch may occur. Rainfall amounts from this system look
to be near one half of an inch to over three quarters of an inch,
with most of it falling between midnight and noon on Sunday.

A much cooler air mass will spread into the area Sunday night with
lows dropping into the teens and wind chills into the single digits
above zero degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Amplified upper level pattern will remain in place next week, with
our region located beneath northwest flow aloft. A series of
shortwaves and cold fronts will move through the area from time to
time, but it appears that moisture availability will be limited (at
best) with each system. While the medium range models agree with the
overall large scale pattern, smaller scale timing differences
continue. Monday will be cold, with temperatures some 10-20 degrees
below average. A quick return to southerly flow on Tuesday will
result in temperatures bouncing back to near average. The next cold
front and upper level system will move through the area during the
Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Have kept low PoPs and below average
temperatures during this time. Another good rebound in temperatures
will follow for Friday into next weekend. Bottom line, limited
precipitation chances and a roller coaster temperature ride are
expected next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected at area aerodromes over the next 24
hours. High and mid level clouds will be on the increase, with
bases lowering to about 5kft (give or take) by the end of the
forecast cycle. Otherwise, surface high pressure will shift to our
east and light/variable winds will become more east to southeast
and gradually increase in speed heading into the daylight hours of
Saturday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Gagan