000
FXUS63 KSGF 181105
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
605 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A WEAK RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS
INTO MO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SKY HAS CLEARED OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWFA...AND WITH WEAK WINDS AND LIGHT
WINDS WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
SUNRISE. METARS/OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING
SOME AREAS.

OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AND IT WILL
GIVE SOME AREAS THAT HAD RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINS A CHANCE TO DRY
OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED.
THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WED-THU AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...FCST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED WITH AN APPROACHING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/STRENGTHEN FARTHER EAST OVER NEB/KS WED
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT SE TOWARD THE WESTERN CWFA LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU WITH THE SUPPORT OF A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE WED NIGHT (WESTERN CWFA) AND FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION ON THU. IF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY THU...A MODEST RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30KT BALLPARK...BUT THE TIMING AND SUBTLE
FEATURES AT THIS POINT TO A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

500MB HEIGHT RISES/BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE THU-FRI-SAT
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ONLY SPOTTY DIURNAL
CONVECTION AT BEST...AND RIGHT NOW WE DON`T PLAN ON ANY
SIGNIFICANT POPS THU NIGHT-SUNDAY. BY MON (DAY 7) SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BIT OF DIP IN THE MID LEVEL UPPER WESTERLIES WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE OF A SIGNAL FOR PRECIP VERSUS THE ECMWF WHICH HOLDS THE
RIDGE A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT POPS
FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT VIS RESTRICTIONS. ONCE THAT FOG DISSIPATES...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR ABOVE.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...BOXELL