000
FXUS63 KSGF 212318
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The biggest forecast challenges are heat Tuesday and then rain
chances later Tuesday night.

500mb ridge continues to build eastward from the Plains into the
Ozarks region through Tuesday. The eastern periphery of the ridge
does weaken Tuesday night as a shortwave drops across the Upper
Midwest. This drives a frontal boundary southward into northern
Missouri Tuesday evening. 850mb temperatures warm to near 22 degrees
Celsius Tuesday afternoon with some dew point pooling taking place
along and to the south of the front. Highest dew points look to be
north of the forecast area, but given expected surface temperatures
in the low to mid 90s will likely see heat index readings over 100
for much of the area, with highest expected across the north and
western areas where the higher dew points will reside. After
collaboration have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for the northwest
sections of the forecast area for Tuesday afternoon. As front slides
into central Missouri towards midnight will see scattered storms
ahead of it with probabilities confined to the northern portions of
the forecast area during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Aforementioned frontal boundary will push through the Ozarks and
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. Deep layer shear rather weak but a
belt of enhanced mid level winds between the southern Rockies high
and the Lower Mississippi River Valley low may be enough to combine
with higher instability to result in some storms producing stronger
wind gusts. Not anticipating any widespread severe at this point.

Front then pushes south of the area Thursday as surface high
pressure builds in from the north as upper flow becomes
northwesterly across the area. Next shortwave then dives out of the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains towards the area. This
will bring rain chances back to the area later Friday into Saturday
with weak surface boundary hanging near the area Sunday.

Another strong shortwave trough digs across Upper Midwest/Upper
Mississippi River Valley region Monday and Tuesday. This will pull
another shot of cooler air back into the region, with temperatures
falling back to below normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Surface high pressure to the southeast of the region will keep
winds light and southerly through the forecast period. An upper
level ridge will keep the region generally clear of any flight
concerns with the exception of a few mid and high clouds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055-066-067-
     077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Hatch