Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130457 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0207 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

A surface cold front has pushed south through the region and is
in northern Arkansas this afternoon. A 850mb front is trailing the
surface front slightly and is currently located near the I-44
corridor late during the mid afternoon hours. A few showers have
developed across the front across eastern Missouri, but a very dry
air mass in the mid levels is spreading from west to east over the
area and will limit any showers across the forecast area.

Gusty northwesterly winds will continue to occur through the rest
of the afternoon and will relax near sunset. Temperatures behind
the front do not drop off as reading are in the upper 70s to lower
80s this afternoon. A much drier air mass is spreading south into
the area which is resulting in very low humidity values this
afternoon. The gusty winds and low humidity will combine to cause
an elevated fire danger risk in some grassland areas, mainly
northwest of I-44.

Seasonably warm and dry conditions will occur through mid week.
Highs will warm into the middle to upper 70s each afternoon, with
a few spots warming into the low 80s possible mid week. The dry
air mass will remain over the area resulting in low afternoon
humidity values and mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Monday)
Issued at 0207 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

An upper level trough will track east across the Northern Plains
into the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday. Another
surface cold front will push south into the area. The air mass
ahead of this front will remain on the dry side and will limit
rain chances. An isolated shower is not out of the question but
most locations should remain dry.

Behind the front surface high pressure and a cooler air mass will
spread south over the region for the weekend. Highs in the 60s and
lows in the 40s are expected Friday through the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours and beyond.
Northwest winds will be gusty at times on Tuesday, becoming light
and variable heading into Tuesday night.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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