Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KSGF 312325

625 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Looks quiet in the near term. A few showers have developed over
the far eastern cwfa but weak shortwave upper level riding has
kept things in check.

Strong/severe storms are expected to develop over the northern and
central Plains this evening as a shortwave moves east from the
Rockies. High res models move some convection into the northwest
and northern cwfa late tonight into Mon morning. By this time,
expect convection to become increasingly elevated as a strengthening
cap/elevated mixed layer spreads northeast into the area. Do have
some pops to account for this weakening convection.

Capping is expected to remain in place for much of the day Monday,
strongest over the sw quarter of the cwfa. A west-east oriented
sfc boundary is expected to set up somewhere, likely over central
MO late during the day, and expect to see renewed convection
develop late in the day and the evening with weakening capping
with another shortwave approaching, increased low level moisture
advection and convergence, and moderate instability. The window
for sfc or at least low level based convection will be fairly
narrow Monday night, but cold see a hail/wind threat during that
time. Training/back-building convection is also a possibility with
areas of heavy rain setting up somewhere over the cwfa Monday
night. The heavy rain possibility is becoming an increasing
concern, but many areas can take a good soaking right now. Still,
expect that we have at least a limited chance for some flash flooding
where excessive rain/runoff occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Tusday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

The front is expected to stall over the southern cwfa Tuesday and
Tuesday night with continued chances for occasional thunderstorms.
The front is expected to finally lift back north Wednesday as
low pressure develops over the Plains in response to a shortwave
moving into the Rockies. A front will push back to the south by
late in the week as the shortwave passes north of the area. Have
rain chances Friday-Saturday. The ECMWF and GFS give the front a
pretty good bump to the south, moving Canadian high pressure into
the Corn Belt/Midwest next weekend with dry and cool weather
a possibility for late Saturday and Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of convection from central KS into western IA early this
evening. High res models start bringing the southern end of this
line of convection into the western CWA towards midnight and
spreading it east across the CWA during the overnight hours. Will
bring into the JLN TAF after 07z and SGF after 08z tonight with
MVFR conditions expected. Also expecting non-convective low level
wind shear tonight with a strong low level jet setting up
overnight. Convection should end towards morning or during the
early daylight hours with additional convection expected towards
the end of the TAF period.




AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.