Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230941

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
341 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Surface low pressure is currently spreading into western
Kansas early this morning. A front extends from the low from south
central Kansas to the northeast into northeastern Missouri. Clouds
will increase this morning. With the front in the area a few
sprinkles/light rain will be possible across the far northern portions
of the forecast area but most of the area will remain dry as the
better chances will be north this morning. The front will lift off
to the north by this afternoon.

Fog is also developing across portions of the area early this
morning where winds remain light. Dense Fog is expected across
south central and portions of southern Missouri early this
morning. The fog is expected to dissipate by mid morning.

The surface low will spread east today across Kansas and will
lift the front to the north. Clouds will clear from southwest to
northeast this afternoon. As a result the warmest temperatures
will occur across southeastern Kansas where highs will approach
the 80 degree mark under more sun. Clouds will hang on longer
across central Missouri where highs in the lower 70s are expected.

As the pressure gradient tightens across the area today winds will
pick up with gusts to around 30 mph expected at times across
southeastern Kansas and the western Missouri Ozarks. The breezy
conditions combined with a dry air mass will lead to a localized
elevated fire weather risk this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

The surface low and associate cold front will push into
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri late tonight then
through the rest of the area Friday morning. A dry air mass will
remain in place and will result in the front passing through the
area mainly dry. May see some light rain/sprinkles in spots along
the front, mainly east of Hwy 65, but most locations should
remain dry.

Breezy northwesterly winds will develop on Friday behind the
front, gusts over 30 mph are expected. Cooler temperatures will
occur Friday as temperatures range from the lower 50s across
southeastern Kansas to the middle 60s across south central
Missouri. A dry air mass will spread into the area and will result
in an elevated fire risk across the area on Friday as they combine
with the breezy northwesterly winds.

Lows will drop into the middle to upper 20s both Friday and
Saturday nights with highs warming into the 40s on Saturday as a
cooler air mass settles over the region. Highs will then warm back
into the 50s and 60s Sunday into early next week.

An upper level shortwave trough will spread into the Plains on
Sunday and across the region Sunday night into Monday. An area of
precipitation will develop with this system Sunday into Monday.
Precipitation may begin as early as Sunday morning, but  would be
light and spotting Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon into Monday
an area of rain is expected to develop and spread east across
Arkansas into Missouri.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Light southerly breeze will continue overnight with some light fog
possible, in the MVFR category. May see a brief period of IFR at
BBG, but mostly should be in VFR/MVFR. Surface winds should become
gusty by afternoon on Thursday as pressure gradient increases out
ahead of low pressure system.


There will be the potential for additional record highs through
Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 70s...

Record HighsFeb 23rd
Springfield 79/1982
Joplin 79/1982
Vichy- Rolla81/1982
West Plains     82/1996




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