Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 251744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1244 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Unseasonably mild weather will continue as south winds become
better established today. A sfc ridge of high pressure from the
Great Lakes to AR will continue to move south and east and sfc
low pressure associated with an approaching shortwave will move
east over the central Plains. As mentioned in the 06z aviation
discussion, there will be some chance for lower clouds this
morning with some increased moisture over the western cwfa, but
rain chances will remain low to nil until maybe late tonight over
the far western cwfa.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

A conditional minor/marginal risk for isolated stronger
thunderstorms will occur Wed over far se KS/far sw MO with hail
the main potential risk. Instability will or could be the limiting

The approaching shortwave will move through Wed. Actually it
looks like the shortwave starts to outrun the weak synoptic sfc
wind shift Wed afternoon. Tue night convection is expected to
develop over eastern KS and move into the northwest-western half
of the cwfa Wed morning. Some renewed development may occur Wed
afternoon along the southern periphery of ongoing convection if
daytime instability can be established. Vertical shear will be
adequate (effective bulk 30-35kts KJLN progged GFS sounding) with
MLCAPE values potentially reaching 1000 J/kg. Mid level lapse
rates (cold air aloft) would support marginally severe hail if
stronger updrafts can get going over the far sw cwfa. Overall
severe storm potential looks low/marginal but not zero for hail
Wed afternoon/early evening for portions of our sw cwfa. See SPC`s
Day2 outlook for more details.

Pacific based sfc high pressure moves in behind the front for Thu
then shifts off to the east Fri as sfc low pressure develops over
the High Plains. Even behind the front temperatures will remain
mild Thu then move upward a bit Fri-Sat with s-sw sfc winds.

Another shortwave and the associated sfc trough will pass through
the region Sat night followed by another weak Pacific based sfc
high Sunday. The progressive upper level pattern looks to repeat
itself again early next week with south winds again becoming
established late Sunday night/Mon.

The bottom line is that above normal temperatures will continue
through this period with the only decent rainfall chances
expected Wed.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: An upper level disturbance is
currently push east into the Plains early this afternoon. Ahead
of this disturbance, upper level clouds are overspreading the
region and will remain over the area into the overnight hours.
Mid level clouds will start to move into the area overnight into
Wednesday morning, but will remain well with in the VFR category .
Winds will be out of the south to southeast during through the TAF

The disturbance will continue to spread east overnight into
Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and storms will be possible
across western Missouri Wednesday morning ahead of the
disturbance and an approaching cold front. The front will not pass
through the TAF sites until after the TAF period.




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