Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 061612

1112 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Issued at 1101 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

Mesoscale models and short term indicies are indicating the
potential for pulse strong to severe thunderstorm development
through the early afternoon and through this afternoon across the

Instability on this mornings 12Z Springfield sounding had around
3000j/kg of CAPE with little to no CAP in place. This has expanded
along a line from Branson to Springfield and northeast towards
Lebanon and Rolla and will continue to expand across the Ozarks
through this afternoon. Increasing though weak moisture
convergence was occurring along the I-44 corridor with thunderstorm
development becoming more likely by mid day.

Precipitable water values remain high with the potential for
localized very heavy rainfall with 1 to 2 inch per hour rates the
primary concern with storms today. Downburst winds around 50 mph
will also be possible along with hail to the size of nickles.

Flash Flooding will be a primary concern as much of the region
remains saturated from recent heavy rains.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

Confidence is increasing that periods of heavy rain will occur
across portions of the forecast area from tonight through at least
Wednesday.  A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for much of the
region from this evening through Wednesday afternoon.

Starting out this morning, convection from yesterday evening has
dissipated, though a few additional showers/thunderstorms will be
possible early this morning, especially across the eastern Ozarks in
the vicinity of a low level baroclinic zone.  Some increase in
convective coverage is then expected later on today, especially
during the afternoon hours, as the combination of a warm and humid
low level airmass and numerous outflow boundaries combine to set off
at least scattered thunderstorms.  Many places will likely stay dry
through the afternoon hours, but much like yesterday, locally heavy
rain can be expected for those areas that DO see thunderstorms this
afternoon. Temperatures today will vary based on thunderstorm
coverage, but mid to upper 80s are expected for most.

Flooding concerns will then increase substantially starting later
this evening into the overnight hours.  A slow moving frontal
boundary, currently stretching from western Lake Superior into
eastern Colorado, will move into the forecast area from the
northwest tonight.  Widespread thunderstorms are expected to be
ongoing along the front as it moves into the region.  Much
of the severe weather threat should be confined to areas to our
northwest (closer to KC), but we`ll need to watch for a few
instances of gusty winds to 50 MPH with the stronger storms this

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

The front will move south to around I-44 or so by Tuesday morning,
and then make little movement Tuesday and Wednesday. This front
will be interacting with a very tropical airmass, with PWAT values
approaching 2 inches at times, which is well above normal even for
this time of year. Waves of thunderstorms, including torrential
rainfall, will move along the front through Wednesday night. Right
now, it appears that heavy rain will be most widespread tonight
and then again late Tuesday night, as a surface wave moves
northeast along the front.

Rainfall amounts are notoriously difficult to forecast, but right
now, best indications are for anywhere from 2 to perhaps as much as
5 inches of rain across the Flash Flood Watch area, with the
heaviest amounts over the far northwestern CWA. Locally higher
amounts will be possible depending on the exact track of
individual thunderstorms. Needless to say, this kind of QPF would
probably be a problem regardless of antecedent conditions, but
given already saturated soils and elevated stream levels, flooding
is appearing increasingly likely.

The front then looks to more or less wash out over the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, with scattered thunderstorms
continuing through the day Thursday.

Upper ridging will then establish itself over the southern and
southeastern U.S. by Friday, and while this will spell an increase
in temperatures, it will at least mean a break from the rain for a
bit.  Temperatures by next weekend look to warm into at least the
low 90s, and with dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s and low 70s,
heat indices between 95 and 100 degrees will be likely over much of
the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

Increasingly active weather pattern will develop across the region
over the next 24 hours. High clouds this morning will gradually
break up this morning, only to be replaced by a healthy cumulus
field by early this afternoon. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms
are possible, with the better risk at SGF/BBG. This activity will
wane by this evening, with thunderstorms redeveloping/approaching
from the northwest during the late evening and overnight hours
tonight. At this point, have handled the afternoon scattered
activity with a VCTS, with a predominate TSRA for the overnight
activity. To this point, MVFR visibility has been included for the
activity tonight, however there is a risk for MVFR ceilings
overnight. This risk will be refined through the day. Low level
wind shear this morning will give way to gusty southwest winds
much of the day. Low level wind shear will redevelop over the area


Issued at 242 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

Heavy rainfall is looking increasingly likely across the region
from this evening through Wednesday afternoon and evening. Current
forecasts suggest anywhere from 2 to 5 inches (locally higher) of
rain across much of the region, with the heaviest amounts falling
north of the Ozark Plateau, including the Sac, Osage, Pomme de
Terre and Marmaton basins. Somewhat lower, though still
significant rainfall amounts are currently expected across the
Niangua, Gasconade, and James River basins.

In addition to significant rises on main stem rivers and area
reservoirs, numerous low water crossings will likely flood as
creeks and streams rise over the next few days. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued for much of the area from early this evening
through Wednesday afternoon.

Rainfall amounts and locations will be fine tuned over the next
day or so, and at least slight changes are likely. Please remain
alert for forecast updates.


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.



LONG TERM...Boxell
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