Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 270451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1151 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

An upper level trough is currently pushing east across the region
this afternoon. Ahead the trough an area of showers is spreading
east across the area. A cold front is currently pushing east
across the eastern Ozarks where more in the way of moderate
showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder are occurring this
afternoon. The trough will continue to spread east across the area
tonight with rain ending from west to east late this afternoon
into this evening.

Localized flooding will remain possible across south central
Missouri into this evening from the heavy rainfall that occurred
earlier today along with the additional rain that is currently

A cooler air mass is spreading into the area behind the front as
temperatures are currently in the middle 40s to the middle 50s
this afternoon. Clouds should start clearing from west to east
tonight, there are questions on how far east the clearing will
make it tonight. The clearing line should push into far western
Missouri. Fog may be possible tonight especially where any
clearing can occur. Lows will drop into the upper 30s to the lower
40s tonight into Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Highs will warm into the 60s Thursday afternoon. Skies will be
mainly clear Thursday morning then clouds should be on the
increase from west to east Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night. No rainfall will occur during the day Thursday. Thursday
night a shortwave trough will sweep through the region and will
likely bring a few showers and perhaps a few non severe storms to
the area. The best chances for rain with this system will likely
be north of I-44.

An upper level low will then dig into the southwestern U.S.
by Friday night. Southwest flow aloft will develop ahead of this
system usher in an increase in gulf moisture. A front will slowly
lift into the area and waves of showers and some storms will
track across the area from Friday night into Sunday before the
upper level low kicks off to the northeast.

Models continue to show a signal for heavy rain setup across the
area from Friday night into Sunday with a widespread 3 to 6
inches for rain expected across the area. The axis of the heaviest
rain may still wiggle slightly farther north or south from what
current models are showing but still heavy rain will occur across
the area. This amount of rainfall will lead to the potential for
widespread flooding across the area as grounds are already
saturated from recent rains.

There could also be a severe risk Friday into Saturday if the warm
sector can get established across southern MO, which is quite


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

IFR to MVFR conditions will gradually give way to rising ceilings
overnight. VFR conditions are expected Thursday as surface high
pressure builds over the region.




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