Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230748
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A shortwave over the eastern Plains is producing an area of
light showers over eastern KS. The upper level trough axis moves
quickly through the region this morning, encountering less
favorable moisture as it goes. Will use a mix of high res models
for the near term precip chances which will wane through the
morning hours. The best chances for rain, albeit light, will be
over the western cwfa.

Clouds will linger a bit, then gradually clear as low level
moisture thins out late today and this evening. It`s questionable
if the partial solar eclipse will be viewable, but some areas may
have a chance since it will be low on the western horizon just
prior to sunset.

A clearing sky and fairly light winds could allow some fog to develop.
The SREF has some fairly modest probabilities for <1NM fog over
the northern cwfa, so will not include any fog for now and let day
shift reevaluate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A large upper level ridge moving east through the central CONUS
will bring unseasonably warm temperatures through Monday. A weak
sfc trough will move south through the cwfa Saturday, but it`s
influence on temperatures will be modest. Many areas should see
highs in the 80s this weekend, especially the western cwfa.

General guidance indicates a transition to a more zonal upper
level pattern toward the end of long term period (at least
briefly) and this lends itself to messy, somewhat low confidence
guidance by day 7. In general, a shortwave is expected to move
into the western CONUS by Sunday then shift into the High Plains
Monday. As it moves east a sfc front will move through the area
Mon night/Tue with the best overall chances for
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some light
showers will be possible toward morning, with chances at JLN at
least worthy of VCSH mention. For BBG and SGF, while there will be
a chance, very dry air in place aloft will keep potential too low
to warrant a TAF mention at this time. If showers do affect a
terminal, vis and cigs should remain well into VFR range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg





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